PGA DFS Picks- Round 4 Showdown for 2024 American Express

January 21, 2024

Byron's top PGA DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings. The Round 4 showdown slate for the 2024 American Express.

Nick Dunlap sits four and five shots clear of Sam Burns and Justin Thomas, respectively, and holds the third-lowest 54-hole score in PGA Tour history at -27. In case you think you are out of the loop in golf, I learned about Nick Dunlap yesterday. He is a 20-year-old sophomore at Alabama who lipped out a putt for 59 to almost become the first-ever college golfer to break 60. He also won the US Amateur to qualify for the Masters, US Open, and Open Championship, so this will not be the last we see of the 20-year-old. From the sounds of it, it seems like he is pretty good at golf??? Just maybe.

In other news, we now have a cut that ended up being -13 after three rounds of golf. We are no longer navigating which golfers are playing which of the three courses. All the guys will be done with their amateurs tagging along for three rounds, minus JT and Sam Burns, who will have to play four rounds with an amateur at this event (the guy who is currently kicking their butts by a handful of strokes).

You can find me on Twitter/X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it.

Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership

The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model, which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.

Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round.

If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?

Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.

Bozo Brainwash Brigade

If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks... don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it with 1.5% of the field ... IF you it the nutz? The chance the leaderboard ends up looking like this tomorrow is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.

Round 4 Stadium Course

Round 4 Strategy

This is an excerpt from the Sentry Tournament of Champions R4 article. The numbers will be slightly different, but the logic remains the same.

"Birdies. Birdies everywhere. The more birdies out there, the fewer finishing position points matter. The average finishing position points to place inside the top 10 is 8.1 points. In a very windy Round 3, the average points scored was 41.85 points. In Round 2, with hardly any wind (as we expect tomorrow), the field averaged 55.59 points.

• 41.85 + 8.1 = 49.95 --> 8.1 / 49.95 = 16.2%
• 55.59 + 8.1 = 63.69 --> 8.1 / 63.69 = 12.7%

A difference of 3.5% doesn't seem like much, but if you think about it, 3.5% X 6 golfers could start adding up. That is IF everybody finished in the top 10 on average. We are going to pick our battles on golfers starting inside the top 10 and take advantage of the people chasing finishing position points, while we hopefully nail the lower-owned, high-upside golfers primed to climb into the top 10 in R4."

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Round 4 Power Rankings

The Power Rankings for Round 4

These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for Round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.

$10,000+

Favorite play: Scottie Scheffler is objectively the best player in the world. Before the week started, if I offered you his name at less than 10% heading into a R4, would you say yes or hell yes? An elite birdie maker on a course that rewards ball striking a little more than the other two courses is very appealing, despite his $11,600 price tag, which is about as costly as his putter.

But by rostering him, your lineup is organically going to be different because of his aforementioned gripes with the World No. 1 whose irons he does stripe. By rostering him at this price and ownership, you won't have to worry about dodging too much chalk/duplicates with him as your first click.

Other considerations: Patrick Cantlay has one of the better Sunday Charge scores and being nine strokes back, a top-10 finish is not what he is looking for. He will want to give it his best go to try and capitalize on a blunder from the guys up top if that happens.

$9,000+

Favorite play: Sam Burns paired with Scottie Scheffler is definitely a way to get different, allowing you to play some really reliable golfers in the other four spots in your lineup. If you start this way, you will average $7,300 for the rest of your four spots in your lineup. Sam will be our only golfer in the $9K range, as we think he has the best opportunity to go low and hunt down the leader. He is $100 more expensive than Thomas, maybe giving us a percent or three less ownership than JT.

$8,000+

Favorite play: Tony Finau made seven birdies today, but two bogeys. If he cleans that up in R4 on the same course, we are looking at a really solid round at ownership, which once again will be even shorter than his backswing in R4 (I appreciate those of you who enjoyed that line from the R3 article)! Big Tone, Big Dome ... go break the slate!

Other considerations: Taylor Montgomery, Chris Kirk, Jason Day

$7,000+

Favorite play: Erik Van Rooyen will be inspired by Dricus Du Plessis, becoming the first South African UFC Champion and he also has one of the best R4 SG averages, surging up the leaderboard on this course last year in the final round, shooting a 62 to finish T6. Do we get another one of those performances? I think yes!

Other considerations: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (this player pool is getting a little South African biased, but we are riding those good vibes!), Matthieu Pavon, Sam Ryder, Chesson Hadley, Tom Hoge, Beau Hossler, Alex Noren, Alexander Bjork. 

$6,000+

Favorite play: Yuxin Lin was the play of the day for R2, and we skipped him in R3 so that we can take advantage of his R4 scoring average he favored on the KFT tour. He has insane upside, ranking inside the top 10 in points in R2, so we are hoping for that this R4.

Other considerations: Chan Kim, Max Greyserman

Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!

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