RADIO
I have been struggling to get accurate strokes gained data, but we finally have some accurate info after reaching out to get this stuff corrected. Let's get right into Round 2 showdown at The American Express.
Three courses and some lopsided results on the La Quinta course makes for some really tough ownership projections tomorrow, as the wave of players heading to the easiest course in the rotation only has two golfers above $8,000 in the R2 slate. More of this below.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
Round 1 DK Points Leaders
I want to say that the wave playing La Quinta was a better group of players as they will be ending their third round before the cut on the Stadium Course, which is the one with all the cameras and shot trackers. But, outside of Xander and Cantlay, the ownership associated with the top end golfers on the La Quinta course just goes to show that anybody is capable of tearing it up over there. We are going to lean into that narrative for R2, but avoid the two or three chalk monsters.
Round 1 Ownership Leaders
The floor rounds at La Quinta make that exorbitant ownership palatable, because trying to find the 0% owned Scott Stallings on the Stadium Course is proving to be rather tricky after one round.
Weather & Tee Times
Tomorrow's weather looks to be once again the definition of "Dome Golf". We going low tomorrow again.
Round 2 Strategy
No weather edge, but the best wave of golfers will be heading to the Nicklaus course with 13 golfers priced north of $8,000. Only J.T. Poston and Eric Cole will be in that price range playing La Quinta in R2 --> they will arguably be the two highest owned golfers on the slate tomorrow as there are simply no other expensive golfers to click who are playing this course. We will be avoiding them, but trying to find some lower owned prospects who can be the Rico Hoey of R2, sprinkling in some studs playing the Nicklaus course and one or two Stadium guys, too.
Contest selection in this kind of an event makes me want to lean towards the multi-entry 20-entry max kinda contests where we can try buck shot the 7 and 6K range on the La Quinta course, while rotating in the cheaper studs who should be much lower owned on the Stadium course, capable of still having a really low round like Stallings today.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: We think that the guys who are priced in the $10K range (who will be playing the Nicklaus course) will be getting slightly less ownership as they did today, as there simply are no options to go to on La Quinta. The $9K guys who will be in the same range as Poston and Cole should see a larger decrease in their ownership because the only two options on La Quinta should both be pushing 40% if my projections are correct.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Tom Kim is an exceptional R2 scorer and after a bit of a dud in Round 1, he heads to the Stadium Course where nobody will want to play him when they can play Poston and Cole. A high upside golfer at minimal ownership is the delicate balancing act we are attempting here. Sungjae Im will be a little higher owned than Tom just because of the better R1 and course history here, but playing the stadium course he should see a lot of his ownership drift to the other $9K options. You won't have to play much of these guys to get 2X the field in exposure.
Other options: Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Tony Finau. We are going to try and rotate these five guys into our lineups in combinations of three. Rotating in the lower owned $7 and $6K guys, too. We are just trying to find two randos to outscore the field, while hopefully getting some cheap, safer, and more reliable plays in this range.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Rickie >gulp< Fowler made a triple today and then played the rest of the way -5 for the day. If he avoids the big numbers and gets off to a quick start, maybe a low owned Rickie can be the slate breaker for us in an attempt to rekindle that US Open course record form.
Other options: Taylor Montgomery low owned on the Stadium Course.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Adam Schenk simply because he is going to be the lowest owned of the $7K swarm we are sending out.
Other options: Beau Hossler, Sam Ryder, Ben Kohles, Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, Thomas Detry
$6,000+
Favorite play: Yuxin Lin is $6,200 and will hardly be owned. His KFT Round 2 scoring is +1.12, which is enough of an inkling to take a chance on him down here. (I had to pull him up in Data Golf to determine if he is a real human... he is)
Other options: Jhonnatan Vegas, Nate Lashley, Sami Valimaki, Patrick Fishburn, Harrison Endycott, Trace Crowe
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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