RADIO
The top of the Sony Open leaderboard consists of a Ryder Cup snub and some rookie scrubs (and Chris Kirk & Benny An - shout out to the Sentry squad). This leaderboard would have definitely rewarded the weeklong DFSers who played the sketchy long shots, had the chalk squad not made the weekend thanks to ... Joel ... I am not salty ... SO happy for the Conners, Svensson, and Cole backers whom I had none of in my weeklong player pool.
Anyway, we have some good golf ahead of us for Sunday and it will be fun to see if Keegan can hold off the rest of the KFT/DPWT rookies who are hot on his heels. PGA Tour bad boy, Grayson Murray also finds himself looking to fend off the haters and 80 other golfers. A lot of opportunity to try to find some value down the board.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks, don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it IF you hit the nutz!? The Chances the leaderboard looks like this tomorrow morning is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
We have some of the most docile conditions we have seen all week. This means that birdies are going to be in abundance while position points can be slightly ignored for the most part. We will be looking to target two or so guys who we think can win this thing while rostering a bunch of low-owned individuals who can sneak their way into a top-10 with an incredible round.
Usually, these golfers sitting outside the top-10, go off much earlier than the leaders in calmer, softer conditions, but because we are playing in Hawaii, the broadcast wants to make sure the leaders are on the course before most of America heads to bed. No real weather edge considering everyone is going off within two hours of each other off two tees.
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Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
$10,000+
Favorite play: We are going to keep trying to benefit from Tyrrell Hatton's upside while his round 4 scoring is through the roof relative to who is left in this field and his overall performance, outside of his back 9 today, has been rather lack luster. If we catch a Tyrrell that rides his last few holes of momentum into R4, we could see him shoot the round of the day and sneak into the top 5, while an above-average round could see him try to sneak into the top 10. Lots to love from someone who grades out really well in the Sunday Charge department (very cool metric, isn't it?).
Other considerations: Ludvig Aberg (we gonna play the game with this guy one more time, hoping for some seriously explosive upside and a Chris Kirk dud in the 40% ownership range).
$9,000+
Favorite play: We are going to nibble on some chalk and momentum that Russell Henley seems to have generated in R3. He has the third-best R4 scoring average in the field and while he sits in T13 he has the potential to find himself inside the top-5 with a patented Henley round of putting without too much pressure.
Other considerations: J.T. Poston, Eric Cole
$8,000+
Favorite play: Justin Rose... out of contention ... Round 4 .... sign us up for a potential course-record-breaking performance in the $8k range (see last week's R4 at the Sentry). Who the heck knows what we get with this guy, but his British-Blue-Collar mentality should see him giving it his best effort of the week, when, once again, it does not matter for the overall outcome of the tournament, but still very much relevant for him and those of us that dare to embrace his mystery bag of round-by-round results.
Chalk City: Keegan Bradley sits in a tie for first and from what we have gathered from him in the past, he tends to hang tight when he is in contention. He will likely be the most owned golfer in the field, but of all the guys at the top of the leaderboard, I trust him the most to close out the deal and take care of business. I won't be overweight on him, but I will likely play about 35% of my lineups with him just to make sure we have, in my opinion, the most likely winner in our player pool.
Other considerations: Denny McCarthy, Cameron Davis (played the last two rounds level par after opening with a -8 to FRL ... he loves a R4 charge).
$7,000+
Favorite play: Erik Van Rooyen is a perennial R4 leaderboard levitator. On Sunday's it seems Hermione doses him with a Leviosa charm and Harry pretends to slip a few drops of Felix Felicis into his Sunday breakfast goblet (I am a huge Harry Potter nut, in case that was not obvious) and for those that don't understand the reference, imagine you woke up feeling like nothing was unattainable, which is how EVR feels most Sundays.
Other considerations: Taylor Montgomery, Luke List, Ben Kholes, Jake Knapp, Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Alejandro Tosti had an absolute clunker of a round today and our pound of flesh was provided to the DFS gods in R3. The KFT leading birdie maker is due for a low round tomorrow and after a mess of a R3, he should be hardly owned, allowing us to capitalize on the best upside in the $6k range tomorrow. His upside is uncapped, but his floor is in the basement of hell, apparently. Let's hope for the prior tomorrow.
Other considerations: Harry Hall, Ryo Hisatsune, Norman Xiong, Robby Shelton, Parker Coody.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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