RADIO
Adam King discusses what to do with several NBA players in Fantasy Basketball Leagues this week. (January 5)
G'day RotoBallers! Welcome to 2024! A new year means a fresh start, right? So what better time than now to start condensing your fantasy strengths to dominate your playoff matchups? Trading players is a great way to go about this, allowing both managers to walk away feeling validated.
However, executing a trade can be harder said than done. Not all managers love the idea of a trade, especially if they believe they will be the attempted target of a fantasy heist. Ensure you know your league and who might be willing to consider a player swap. While the option does exist, I recommend not having a league veto system. Ensure your commissioner is knowledgeable and transparent, and allow them to dictate trade decisions.
With all that out of the way, here are our current sell-high and buy-low candidates as you prepare for Week 12 of the fantasy basketball season.
Tobias Harris, F - Philadelphia 76ers
Baller Move: Sell High
A sell-high opportunity for Harris is something that comes along at least once or twice per season, so this is to be expected. With Joel Embiid sidelined for much of the past two weeks, Harris has been able to shoulder more responsibility on both ends of the floor. He has put up second-round value over the last two weeks, averaging 23.2 points per game, adding 6.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks, and 2.2 three-pointers, and shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 80.0 percent from the line. Basically, season-high numbers across the board.
He has now scored at least 20 points in five of the past six games, before which he had eclipsed that mark only once in the previous 13 games. While he can be a somewhat reliable source of offensive production, it's safe to assume what he has been doing is unsustainable, especially now that Embiid has returned to the lineup. The 76ers continue to string wins together and granted, Harris has been a big reason for their success this season.
However, if we know anything about Harris, it's that he can regress to the mean just as quickly. Even if we scale his production back by 10 percent, it probably lands him outside the top 50 in nine-category leagues. Keeping that in mind, now might be a good time to explore a trade should anyone in your league be willing to give up a top-40 asset.
Collin Sexton, G - Utah Jazz
Baller Move: Sell High
After a slow start to the season, Sexton has vaulted himself back into relevance with some inspiring play over the past month. During that time, he has been a top-80 player, compiling averages of 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers. He has done that while shooting 48.1 percent from the floor and 89.1 percent from the charity stripe. Unlike last season, it has been Sexton who has benefited from injuries to other players, allowing him to shift into the opening unit.
Despite his recent heroics, he remains outside the top 150 for the season. Known primarily as a scorer off the bench, Sexton typically struggles to produce enough across the board to be considered a must-roster player, especially in category formats. The Jazz have played around with their rotation this season, perhaps more so than any other team. For this reason, it's hard to project what Sexton's role might look like in another month. Beyond the trade deadline, things get even murkier.
As long as he is healthy, Sexton should be able to remain relevant no matter what his playing time might be moving forward. Anyone who can score upwards of 20 points on any given night has value both in fantasy and reality. We have a reasonably large sample size when it comes to Sexton's overall fantasy value, hence the sell-high recommendation. If you can find a manager who will buy into the hype, trading him away for a top-80 asset certainly makes sense.
Karl-Anthony Towns, F - Minnesota Timberwolves
Baller Move: Buy Low
Despite the team's success, Towns has had to take a backseat to Anthony Edwards. After being a top-10 fantasy talent during the 2021-22 season, he has been a fringe third-rounder over the past two seasons. Hovering around the top 40 over the first two months, it's been a modest couple of weeks for Towns, barely putting up top-300 numbers. During that time, he averaged 17.2 points to go with 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 three-pointers. This alone is cause for concern but it's on the defensive end where he has struggled, recording two steals and zero blocks in the past eight games.
While he has never been a high-volume contributor on the defensive end of the floor, managers certainly need more from him should they hope to remain competitive. The addition of Rudy Gobert makes the going tough in the paint, limiting Towns' opportunities. With that said, he should be able to amp up the production at some point, delivering close to 1.5 combined steals and blocks per game.
Towns is not going to get back to being a first-round talent, that much we can agree on. However, I think we can also agree that he can't be this bad for too long. The Wolves are positioned to make some real noise this season and to do so, Towns needs to be functioning at an All-Star level. If you are in a position to take a bit of a risk, throwing out a top-40 player in a trade might be a sneaky play in competitive leagues, especially if you are punting blocks. A bump in efficiency and regression to the mean in defensive numbers could easily see Towns back inside the top-30 in no time.
Chet Holmgren, C - Oklahoma City Thunder
Baller Move: Buy Low
First things first, let's all agree that Holmgren has been a revelation this season. Slated as a potential top-40 player, he currently slots in as the 12th-ranked player in nine-category leagues behind averages of 17.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks, and 1.7 three-pointers. Both he and Victor Wembanyama have proven to everyone that they are going to be fantasy studs for many years to come.
However, if we narrow our focus to the past two weeks, we have seen a couple of small chinks in the armor. Despite averaging 18.4 points per game over that time, Holmgren sits outside the top 50. This is due to two factors, those being a dip in both his rebounds and defensive contributions. He is down to 5.9 boards and 2.4 combined steals and blocks. While these are still more than acceptable, we know it doesn't take much for a first-round player to slide given the top-end talent in the league right now.
It's hard to say with confidence that Holmgren will be a first-round player come the end of the season. The Thunder remain a somewhat unknown quantity given their struggles in recent seasons. Holmgren has been as advertised and should continue to play a key role on a team looking to put the world on notice. His ability to contribute on both ends of the floor should allow him to maintain at least top-20 value moving forward.
On the heels of his slight downtick over the past two weeks, there is a slight chance his managers are starting to become a little skeptical. Now is a great time to pounce, especially if anyone invested in him is fighting for a playoff spot. If you could secure his services in return for a top-30 player, the reward could certainly outweigh the risk.
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