RADIO
As you will see throughout the outright portion of the article where the graphics were inspired by the movie, The Hangover, as a content guy nothing was more brutal than starting the year with a Monday falling on Jan 1st. However, we have trooped through the week and have some really exciting plays to cheer for as the Sentry Tournament of Champions graces our bright eyes and bushy tails about 5 hours later than usual when they tee it up in Hawaii tomorrow.
I want to use this second paragraph to formally welcome Joe Idone to RotoBaller as the latest and greatest addition to our hard-working family over here. We have pumped his arrival through every outlet we could and I just wanted to do that here once more, because we are thrilled to have him working alongside us and bringing you video and written gold, as always.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Prior Week Recap
We ended the 2023 season on a high note doubling our $100 into $113 of profit thanks to the Farewell Fiver cashing at 17-1 with a three-ball-parlay which may become the patented Farewell Fiver bet. Time will tell. Sam Ryder finishing top 20 @ +400 was also really nice, along with the rest of the gang doing their thang.
Outrights ($20)
Five guys at the Sentry Tournament of Champions for us. The interesting thing about this event is that it is ... big reveal ... filled with past champions of 2023. So, the win equity in this field is oozing out of every pants seam of Tom Kim's thicc lower half. Instead of betting most of the guys top 5 as well, we got some great numbers at BetRivers so just rolled with the each-ways that cover 5 places for most of the card. All plays were dropped in our premium discord here as I made them, so join up if like that kinda thing. Let's meet our winners for the week.
Patrick Cantlay $8.60 @ 17-1 (FanDuel)
Patty Ice was no dice at the FedEx St. Jude the last time we were on him. The second fairway he missed the entire day was when he rinsed his tee shot in the first playoff hole. #RedemptionSzn for the 2nd ranked golfer in my model this week. His last 24 rounds of golf have gained the second-most total strokes behind Viktor Hovland who has been a walking ball of fire lately (8-1 this week).
Cantlay also thrives on easier courses, finishing T4 at the Travelers in his most recent Easy Outing, while notching up two 4th place finishes at the TOC in '22 and '20. He has top-5 finishes at the Shriners and Genesis Invitational last year, which are two courses I would be using to compare success at Kapalua. He also finished T14 at Augusta which is another solid comp course.
He is also an elite birdie maker (1st) and is surgical on the par 5s (1st) of which there will be 16 total this week, having to probably play those close to -12 for the week if you want to stand a good chance at winning. Cantlay has never lost strokes putting at this venue, which held him back for most of last season, having his worst season on the greens since 2018. Expect that putter to bounce back this week and lead him to victory behind some incredibly reliable tee-to-green play. "2 more holes and then we can get a Mai Tai"!!!
Tony Finau $4.43 @ 33-1 (5 e/w Betrivers)
I have often wondered why Tony Finau really has never been one of the longest drivers on tour. In the video below, he harnesses his inner power ranger and gets to 200MPH BALL SPEED!!!! I think we saw a bit more of that at the Hero World Challenge where he was the 4th longest driver of the week, averaging 315 yards per drive. At this course, with wide open fairways, expect him to once again appear at the top of the board in distance, leaving him with ample wedge opportunities which he ranks 6th in this field in good shot % from 100-150. Roll in some putts and lets overpower this course Big Tone!
Cameron Young $2.92 @ 50-1 (5 e/w Betrivers)
New caddie for daddy Cam heading into the new year. A South African by the name of Wayne de Haas, which translate from Afrikaans to Wayne the Rabbit, which we are hoping Cam can pull out the hat for us this week. At 50-1 we get the longest driver in the field and somebody who has incredible talent but just never quite got out his own way while he had Paul Tesori on the bag. Hopefully we can get back to the Cam Young who couldn't stop making birdies at the WGC Matchplay last year, the first event he had Paul on his bag for. He does his best work on the first date!
Eric Cole $2.22 @ 66-1 (5 e/w Betrivers)
I will be completely honest and say that this outright bet was made entirely on the premise that we get a 16-1 for an Eric Cole top 5. I am not entirely sure he has it in the tank to win up against the elites in this field, but a top-5 is well within his grasp. He should find himself a lot less stressed off the tee this week, which is the only issue in his game, allowing his top-10 iron play and really tidy short game to shine through in his first TOC appearance.
Sahith Theegala $1.83 80-1 (5 e/w Betrivers)
Sahith just won the Fortinet Championship 3 starts ago and now is 80-1 on a course that allows him to spray his driver and rely on his putter to make tons of makeable birdie putts. He usually has to thread his irons through a tree and around a Porta Potty from where he drives it, but most of them should be from the fairway this week. Comp courses he has played well at were a T6 at the Genesis Invitational and 9th in his first Masters appearance! A relaxed, recharged Sahith should be super trooping his way up to the top of the leaderboard at a ridiculous 80-1 number.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($60)
Scottie Scheffler $40 Top 10 (-200 BetMGM/Bet365 Ties Paid in Full)
He has finished inside the top 10 in 67% of his full field starts this year. There are only 59 golfers in this field, of which 15 of them have top 10 finishes in 10% or less of their starts. -200 implies a 67% probability rate, so we are getting his year-long average hit rate in a much smaller field, with roughly 40 golfers to really beat out for a top 10, with ties paid in full. @TeeOffSports also really loves Scottie's chances to see some improvement with his putter on these slower Bermuda surfaces. *This number has since drifted back to -175 at DK, which I would bet instead of the -200 for ties paid in full.
Patrick Cantlay $10 Top 10 +120 (BetMGM ties paid in full)
We typically bet our outrights top 5 as well, but we get Cantlay with an implied probability of 44% to finish inside the top-10, which he has done 37% of the time in full field events in 2023. Remember, only 58 other golfers to share top 10 laurels with this week, so with Cantlay's two 4th place finishes in his last 5 starts here and the other three not being worse than T16, we like his chances to get back to batting .500 on top-10s at Kapalua ball field.
Eric Cole $10 Top 20 +138 (BetMGM ties paid in full)
Cole's best Top 20 odds come at BetMGM where ties are paid in full, which is the perfect scenario. The model has him ranked 5th and he has four top-5 finishes in his last five starts in the fall swing. If the better strength of field sees him slide down the leader board, we get a 42% implied probability for him to do something he has done 35% of the time all of last season, with 5 of his last 8 starts taking care of this top-20 bet.
Matchups ($15)
This week we are all in on Cantlay over Jordan Spieth (-138 @ Bet365) as Spieth's best finish in his last three appearances here was a 9th place finish, with his two other starts landing him 13th and 21st. His lack of consistently hitting his approach shots close at this venue is going to leave his short game working overtime. He is losing -0.25 strokes per round on approach in his last 16 and we expect Cantlay to gradually birdie his way clear of Spieth as the week unfolds.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 +1418 (DraftKings)
Eric Cole's best splits are in R1 and so are Cameron Young's, while Luke List is picking on Hideki who gets off to a slow start most of the time and who knows what golf Davis Riley plays.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
Other Content By Byron
Back 9 Bets Podcast
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