FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 16

December 20, 2023

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 16 (2023) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

The fantasy football playoffs are here and tomorrow isn't promised, so prioritize your needs and keep roster depth in the chamber where possible. It's great to line up Week 17 title plays already, but we must get there first. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.

All 32 teams are in play and very few games remain. Your FAAB bids will hinge on your resources, with your competitors' coffers being arguably just as important. With that in mind, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 16.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew (QB, IND) - 25% rostered

FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%

Minshew connected on a season-high three touchdown passes in a 30-13 victory over the Steelers. The Colts are holding steady at 8-6 in the thick of the AFC’s playoff race and Minshew has six TDs over their last three games.

Of course, his outlook takes a hit if Michael Pittman Jr. is unavailable due to the brutal hit to the head on that hospital ball. Stay tuned for his Week 16 date with an Atlanta secondary that allowed Bryce Young to complete 75% of his passes.

Joe Flacco (QB, CLE) - 25% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%

Flacco completed 28-of-44 passes for 374 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s attempted 44 or more passes in his three starts for Cleveland thus far, rocking a 7/5 TD:INT ratio that would make any gunslinger proud.

here's a fun one.

Joe Flacco has now thrown as many TDs for the #Browns in just 3 games as Johnny Manziel did in his 14. (7) #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/ppS71WRhno

— MoreForYouCleveland (@MoreForYou_CLE) December 18, 2023

The Browns are 2-1 with Joe at the helm and their next opponent is a banged-up Houston team. The risk is that Cleveland’s defense stymies the Texans and Flacco doesn’t have to do much.

Nick Mullens (QB, MIN) - 4% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%

Mullens is already Minny’s confirmed starter in Week 16 following a stout 303-yard effort in Week 15 at Cincinnati. He’s completed 35-of-46 pass attempts between Sunday and Week 14’s relief effort. It may not be thrilling, but Mullens has immense talent around him and an upcoming date with Detroit’s generous defense. Detroit’s games have generated 50 or more points in five of their last six games, so let’s toast to Shootout City.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Zamir White (RB, LV) - 15% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-100%

White made good on the starting opportunity with Josh Jacobs missing Week 15’s game with a quad injury, tallying 85 total yards and a TD on 20 touches. The Chargers were crushed 63-21 but White’s TD started the festivities, so this wasn’t a garbage-time performance.

Jacobs will have time to heal up for a Christmas game at KC but the Raiders are 6-8 and 10-point underdogs here so Jacobs may not press it. White likely won’t enjoy a similar gamescript to the Chargers game, but ~15 touches is still automatically viable for some of you.

Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 21% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 20-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-50%

It appeared Johnson had lost momentum in favor of D’Onta Foreman, but Foreman got absolutely nowhere on Sunday. His six carries amounted to -6 yards while Johnson mustered 5-36-0 rushing and another 4-24-0 receiving.

Johnson was given the nod over Khalil Herbert, who only gained 12 total yards on seven touches. The hot-hand approach is a fickle one, but Johnson looks like the 1A committee chair approaching a juicy date with Arizona’s bottom-five rushing defense.

Chase Brown (RB, CIN) - 20% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-60%

Brown continues to gain momentum, registering 51 total yards on 10 touches while Joe Mixon only had 13 touches in the 27-24 win. That’s three straight with 50 or more yards for Brown. This isn’t to say Mixon is bad (he had 61 yards and a TD!) but this was a marked step back from his recent games with ~25 touches.

Whether this is a one-off anomaly or not can’t be said with certainty, but it’s logical Brown’s strong play of late gives them the confidence to ease off Mixon down the stretch. They’ll need both of them against Pittsburgh’s dynamic front, especially if Ja’Marr Chase is out or limited by his shoulder injury.

Trey Sermon (RB, IND) - 0% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-60%

This one’s messy, as Indianapolis’ backfield has several wrinkles heading into Week 16. Jonathan Taylor could return to action. Zack Moss “plans to play” but who knows how serious that arm injury will be as the week goes on. Sermon and Tyler Goodson stepped in as the Colts rolled to a 30-13 victory.

Sermon’s 17 carries resulted in 88 total yards, but Goodson had 13 touches for 79 total yards of his own. Goodson had two receptions while Sermon wasn’t involved in the passing game here. Indy faces Atlanta’s stout run defense next while JT/Moss loom.

Sermon is the lean for short-yardage TD plunges, and the Colts have used their three practice squad elevations on Goodson by now. If they sign him to the active roster then that’s a good indicator of JT and/or Moss’ status.

Good chance Jonathan Taylor returns next week as well. https://t.co/noTFvn7SBN

— Stephania Bell (@Stephania_ESPN) December 18, 2023

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC) - 40% rostered
Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC) - 41% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-20% each
Aggressive Bid: 20-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-40%

Both CEH and McKinnon proved valuable in Week 15 at Foxborough. CEH had another grinding day as a rusher, totaling 37 yards on 13 carries to drop his seasonal YPC mark to 3.4. But he showed up as a receiver, catching four passes for 64 yards and a score.

McKinnon only had eight touches, roughly half of CEH’s total, but they were high-value ones. He caught a touchdown pass (3-19-1 receiving) and “threw” a TD pitch to Rashee Rice as well. Losing Isiah Pacheco stings, but both RBs are still better than their WR corps behind Rice. If Pacheco does return for Week 16 against the Raiders then neither has a high enough floor to be relied on unless desperate.

Andy Reid says RB Isiah Pacheco, who underwent a shoulder surgery to clean up some stuff in there, will be back this week and is good to go.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) December 18, 2023

Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - 0% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 5-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%

This hurts, as Hill’s resurgent role is tied to Keaton Mitchell’s torn ACL. Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson are the most effective rushers but Hill, and the recently-signed Melvin Gordon to an extent, will be involved in the run-heavy scheme.

Hill had solid games early in the year but ceded change-of-pace work to Mitchell’s versatile speed. It’s unlikely Hill’s role spikes above 12-15 touches per game, especially with SF and MIA upcoming, but ~10-12 touches with 40-50 yards and a TD chance is enticing to some of you.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Noah Brown (WR, HOU) - 40% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 60-70%
Aggressive Bid: 70-80%
Desperation Bid: 80-100%

It took Case Keenum to re-unlock Brown’s potential, just as we said all along. Okay, but Brown’s 8-82-1 line on 11 targets (more than double any other Texan) highlights the value of volume no matter who surrounds it. And he simply looked sharp out there.

GREAT STUFF - Dalton Schultz on Noah Brown “routing” guys up in #Texans 19-16 win over TEN.

Brown: 8 catches, 82 yards & 4Q TD

“I mean dude, cut the all-22 on, there’s a couple that he doesn’t get the ball on, dude, he’s routing the guy up. Like, just killing the guy.” pic.twitter.com/ZuQjqSIt3c

— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) December 18, 2023

We do anticipate Stroud’s return in Week 16, though a matchup against Cleveland’s defense is tough sledding. Many trusted medical folks on Twitter lean toward Nico Collins sitting out again so keep Brown near the front of your queues. And a rematch with the Titans’ vulnerable pass defense looms in Week 17.

Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - 37% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-100%

Samuel turned nine targets into a 5-41-2 line as Washington found themselves trailing early. The reliable slot man was the clear No. 2 option as Jahan Dotson was once again pushed out, grabbing just one reception. Since Samuel returned from injury in Week 10, Dotson has only 11 catches in that five-game window.

Sam Howell is enduring his bumps and allegedly remains the starter despite being pulled late on Sunday. He loves his Samuel safety blanket, which he’ll need against a stifling Jets secondary in Week 16.

Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC) - 29% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 30-50%
Aggressive Bid: 50-65%
Desperation Bid: 65-80%

Palmer’s first game since Week 8 saw him house a 79-yard score to fuel a 4-113-1 line in an otherwise horrendous night for the Chargers. Justin Herbert’s season is over but Easton Stick’s Chargers are bound to be trailing against Buffalo in Week 16, with negative gamescripts leading to decent volume. Palmer’s first game back saw him play 47-of-65 snaps, running 30 routes as LAC got decimated by the Raiders.

The biggest question will be where Palmer’s workload settles when Keenan Allen is healthy on the field. If Palmer plays in two-wide sets with Allen, working ahead of Quentin Johnston, then he’s a 12-team play. If not, then Stick at QB won’t be able to make him a reliable play.

Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - 5% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-50%

Arizona had an uphill battle against the 49ers and barely utilized their wide receivers in the process. Marquise Brown was forced from the game with his heel injury, which left Dortch as the best WR with only 20 total yards. Rondale Moore had eight and Michael Wilson had zero.

Arizona had three TEs and three RBs eclipse 25 yards, but it’s encouraging that Kyler Murray had yards to go around. I’d expect more out of Dortch against Chicago and Philadelphia in the next couple of weeks if Brown is out. This goes back to the Noah Brown principle of being the de facto No. 1 WR.

Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB) - 3% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%

Wicks paced the Pack with 97 yards on six catches (seven targets) against Tampa Bay’s paper-thin secondary. Jayden Reed was the go-to option with Christian Watson out (hamstring), but then he exited with what might be turf toe. Wicks largely stepped into Watson’s role and would maintain a big role in Week 16 if Watson and/or Reed is out or limited.

The matchup at Carolina isn’t enticing, but Green Bay needs weapons. Aaron Jones may need more time to find his 100% and A.J. Dillon would be coming off of his broken thumb. Wicks becomes a nice dart throw in deeper circles.

Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR) - 8% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%

Robinson ran just as many routes as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (38), but only saw three targets while Kupp had eight and Nacua garnered seven. Luckily, DRob caught two of them for 44 yards and a touchdown while also gaining 23 yards on a rush.

He’s now found paydirt in three straight games as Matthew Stafford continues to perform well down the stretch. I’d worry about the New Orleans matchup in Week 16 except Robinson already scored against Cleveland and Baltimore over the last few weeks. Stafford and the Rams can support Robinson as a flex play next to his two alpha receivers and Kyren Williams.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - 24% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-35%
Desperation Bid: 35-50%

The Patriots were never going to keep up with the Chiefs, but Henry and Bailey Zappe did flash their connection once again. The big TE caught 7-of-9 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, which gives him three TDs in his last two games.

The reception and yardage tallies are season-high marks going into a sturdy matchup against Denver’s bottom-three TE unit. Zappe isn’t much, but he’s providing more of a spark than Mac Jones could and Henry’s involvement even with Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker active is encouraging.

Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) - 10% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-35%
Desperation Bid: 35-50%

Kraft continues to step up with many of Green Bay’s weapons out or operating at less than 100%. He’s caught multiple passes in five straight games, with over 30 yards or a score in each of them. The bar is low for TE-streaming relevance as the Pack heads to Carolina for a game where GB should dominate a struggling Panthers team.

Week 15 TE Fantasy Usage
1. David Njoku (17.8 exp half PPR)
2. Sam LaPorta (11.8)
3. Trey McBride (11.6)
4. Travis Kelce (11.6)
5. Tucker Kraft (10.1)
6. Hunter Henry (9.6)
7. Isaiah Likely (9.4)
8. Cole Kmet (9.3)
9. Michael Mayer (9.2)
10. Ferg Daddy (9.2)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 18, 2023

Michael Mayer (TE, LV) - 7% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-20%

Mayer’s Week 15 touchdown helped propel the team to 63 total points in their blowout of the Chargers. The question streamers must consider is whether Vegas figured out some lasting plans to help Aidan O’Connell lead the offense, or whether anything would’ve worked against a broken Chargers team.

It’s nice to see this after two down games, as he’s now seen five targets in three of his last five going into LV’s game at KC on Christmas. He’s a low-end streamer there as LV should find themselves trailing and needing to pass. Especially if Josh Jacobs can’t go and boost the run game’s threat.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos Defense (vs. NE, then vs. LAC) - 47% rostered

FAAB Bid: 25%-Whatever You Can Spare%

The Broncos just got lit up for 42 points by Detroit, but this matchup pairing of NE and LAC over the next two weeks is tough to beat. Don’t forget that Denver faced the Chargers in Week 14, registering six sacks with two turnovers and only seven points allowed.

But first, they’ll face a beleaguered Pats team that just served up four sacks to Kansas City. Both of these matchups being at home in the altitude sure helps. Are the Broncos leading your stampede to a fantasy title?

Green Bay Packers Defense (at CAR, then at MIN) - 47% rostered

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-25%

Green Bay is next in line to beat up Bryce Young’s Panthers. Yes, Carolina pulled off a 9-7 win in sloppy weather this weekend, but the offense still stunk. While Green Bay got torched by Baker Mayfield, they still logged five sacks and Young is no Mayfield. If you’re transaction-strapped, Week 17 at Minny with their backup QB carousel is also a decent look.

Chicago Bears Defense (vs. ARI, then vs. ATL) - 14% rostered

FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-16%

A rejuvenated Bears defense turned in its second straight game with four sacks and three turnovers in a tough 17-20 loss to the Browns. This gives them four consecutive games with multiple sacks and multiple turnovers.

Now they’ll face a Cardinals team that’s improved with Kyler Murray, yet has still given up multiple sacks of their own in 10 straight. And then they draw an uninspiring ATL offense that can’t break free from the shackles of Arthur Smith’s big brain.

Others to consider: Seahawks (at TEN, vs. PIT), Colts (at ATL, vs. LV), Rams (vs. NO, at NYG)

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