DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks (12/16/23): Today's Top NBA DFS Lineups

December 16, 2023

The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on December 16, 2023. Kyle Ringstad provides NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.

One of the benefits of having the In-Season Tournament this year is that it has shifted the scheduling around, and now we're getting big slates on Saturdays. We'll take it! Tonight's slate is going to be a lot like yesterday - you're going to need every single player to smash to have any shot at finishing high in a tournament. While only a few games hold implied totals over 240 points, over half of the matchups rank as an "A+" or better in my K-Grade model, meaning we're likely to see a lot of fantasy points scored in those contests. Buckle up.

As always, injuries are a key factor here and we will need to monitor for news and make adjustments as we learn more. The key players to monitor are Tyrese Haliburton, De'Aron Fox, Anthony Edwards, Paul George, Jamal Murray, Jerami Grant, Aaron Gordon, Mark Williams, De'Andre Hunter, Alex Caruso, and Dorian Finney-Smith.

This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/16/23. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome new NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 pm EST.

I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.

DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks

Luka Doncic, DAL vs. POR – PG ($12,100 DK; $12,600 FD)

The sky-high salary might scare some people off Luka Doncic tonight, but I will not be deterred. The Mavs' superstar is averaging an incredible 71.5 DK points per game over his last seven games, never falling below 59 DK points while hitting a season-high 93.25 DK points on 12/2. Doncic holds a 36% usage rate over the last three games with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, as he will be tonight. This game also doesn't project as a blowout with the Mavs only favored by six points in Portland, so we should get a full allotment of minutes out of the superstar guard. The Blazers aren't going to be able to slow him down as they rank seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing teams this season.

Donovan Mitchell, CLE v. ATL - PG/SG ($9,400 DK; $10,100 FD)

We'll get to some value plays later on and in the "Others to consider" sections, but we're starting today's article with two high-priced guards that I'm prioritizing in my lineup builds for tonight's slate. Donovan Mitchell will be taking on more usage with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley out for the foreseeable future. With those two off the floor this season, Mitchell averages 1.55 FPTS/min and holds a tantalizing 33% usage rate. Mitchell's production has been a little disappointing this season, but he just put up 69.25 DK points in this very same matchup at the end of November and has a much better shot at hitting ceiling games with Garland and Mobley out of the lineup. The Hawks allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing SGs this season, and the game environment is one of the better ones on the slate.

T.J. McConnell (if Haliburton doesn't play)

Others to consider: Collin Sexton, Brandin Podziemski, Caris LeVert, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks

Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA vs. SAC - SG/SF ($5,800 DK, $5,600 FD)

There's not a ton to love in the value department for tonight's slate, at least until we get any breaking news on players sitting out for injury or rest. Talen Horton-Tucker is the best we can do for the time being, and he's an option that I'll like even if we get "better" value as the day rolls along. The Jazz are playing the Kings in a game with one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 240.5 points, and the opportunity for THT to continue balling is still there as John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Keyonte George will be out. He ranks just behind Collin Sexton (27%) and Lauri Markkanen (26%) with a 25% usage rate with those three off the floor this season, and his 1.07 FPTS/min rate in the split will get the job done in this matchup. The Kings are solid defensively, but they have a weak spot against SFs as they allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position this season.

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. IND - PF/C ($8,700 DK, $8,600 FD)

We should probably try our best to get to some plays in the Wolves-Pacers matchup, because, well...it's the Pacers. Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and rank 28th in defensive rating, so we typically see whoever they're facing holding the highest implied total on the slate. That's what we have tonight as the Wolves hold a 126-point implied total, and we have a perfect storm situation with how Karl-Anthony Towns matches up with their frontcourt. The Pacers allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing PFs this season, and while KAT hasn't shown a huge ceiling yet this year, we could see it tonight. Towns becomes a near-lock if Anthony Edwards doesn't suit up.

Benedict Mathurin (if Haliburton doesn't play)

Others to consider: Caris LeVert, Julius Randle, Max Strus, Caleb Martin

DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks

Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. ATL - C ($6,900 DK; $7,100 FD)

It's time for Jarrett Allen to step up. His performance has been very up-and-down this season as he hasn't quite established himself as a dominant presence down low, even with Evan Mobley now out of the lineup. He's had a few 35+ DK point outings and a few ceiling games, but there have been too many games where he disappears and puts up a lineup-killing score. Tonight is his chance to show what he's all about against Clint Capela, Onkeya Okongwu, and the Hawks. Atlanta allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing Cs this season, and the pace-up nature of this game environment (ATL ranks third in pace) should lead to additional opportunities for the big man to kick of his redemption tour.

Others to consider: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Robert, Clint Capela, Chet Holmgren, Myles Turner

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