Free College Football Betting Picks - Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds Bowls Week 1 (December 16-23, 2023)

Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 1 of the bowl games (12/16-12/23/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.

What makes bowl season so great? Maybe it's the fact that we have now had three weeks since wall-to-wall football on Saturdays. We miss it! It's not as big as the regular season, but it gives us something to look forward to from now until the end of the year. We don't have any bowl games on December 20 and we don't have any on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. That leaves Week 1 of the bowls a little light except for a couple of big Saturdays.

I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are this year's results so far.  I am still in the black on the season and I plan on finishing that way. I hit the Army-Navy game to bring me to 369-382 heading into the bowls with 35 points. I'm aiming for that elusive .500 record!

CFB Betting Picks Overview

As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.

I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.

CFB Betting Picks for Bowl Week 1 (December 16-23)

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (-2.5) at Conway, SC

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Kurtis Rourke and Sieh Bangura have opted out for the Bobcats and they are still favored? Yeah, right! Give me the Eagles outright!

Cricket Celebration Bowl: Howard vs. Florida A&M (-6.5) at Atlanta, GA

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I don't usually do this, but we now have a finite number of college football games left and I'm already feeling the depression setting in. I'm going to enjoy -- and bet -- everything that's left! Howard impressed me by hanging with Northwestern. I'll say they hang with the Rattlers, too.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana at New Orleans, LA

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is almost a road game for the Gamecocks, which is why Louisiana opened as the favorite. Chandler Fields was serviceable as the quarterback for the Cajuns, but this Jacksonville State team has been solid all season long. Solid enough to get a road win? Sure, why not? I'll take the Gamecocks.

Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State (-4.5) at Orlando, FL

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I did pick the Mountaineers outright in Bowl Mania because Aveon Smith opted out. However, winning by more than a field goal without Nate Noel against this defense might be a tall task. I'll take the Redhawks not to get covered since I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State (-1.5) at Albuquerque, NM

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't buy this at all. Logan Fife is transferring and Mikey Keene really struggled down the stretch. There is no backup plan this time around. This is basically a home game for the Aggies, who played very well down the stretch. They played well against Liberty in a loss. I think they go out with another bowl win in front of a very partisan crowd.

Starco Brands L.A. Bowl: UCLA (-2.5) vs. Boise State at Inglewood, CA

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I might factor in this being a home game if UCLA fans actually showed up to home games. Dante Moore is on his way out. Boise loses Taylen Green, but he had lost his job anyway. The Bruins didn't play well down the stretch at all. The duo of Ashton Jeanty and George Holani looked really good for Boise at the end of the year. I'll ride the Broncos until they buck me off.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California (-1.5) at Shreveport, LA

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This opened with Tech favored, but a mass exodus of receivers and three-time starting QB Tyler Shough flipped this. Shough wasn't going to play anyway, but Myles Price out of this game is going to make things more difficult for Behren Morton. For me, this comes down to Cal's defense and the immense talent that they have on offense. Jaydn Ott is going to show out in this one. Give me Cal.

Famous Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs. Old Dominion at Charlotte, NC

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I've gone back and forth on this one a few times since it was announced. My picking Old Dominion in Bowl Mania was just going against the masses who were heavy on Western Kentucky. This is a game that Old Dominion could win, but I don't know... I'll take the Monarchs, but I don't have a lot of confidence in it.

Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl: UTSA (-7.5) vs. Marshall at Frisco, TX

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This game opened at -12.5 and is down to -7 in most places. I like it better there, but I'll give the half. Frank Harris is not losing this game. Give me UTSA.

Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida vs. Syracuse (-4.5) at Boca Raton, FL

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Syracuse made the right hire in Fran Brown, but I still have faith in Byrum Brown, especially so close to home. He's staying at USF because he wants to win at USF. I'll bet on that! Give me the Bulls outright!

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida (-4.5) at Tampa, FL

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This is basically a home game for the Knights and the Bees have had trouble with speed. Give me UCF.

76 Birmingham Bowl: Troy (-2.5) vs. Duke at Birmingham, AL

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It's a mass exodus out of Durham. Riley Leonard, Jordan Waters, and Jaquez Moore are the big names that hit the portal. That's almost Duke's entire rushing total for the season. It's going to be tough sledding for Kimani Vidal, but I trust the Troy veterans to bring this home in front of a partisan crowd.

Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Montgomery, AL

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This NIU offense is kind of a mess. I'll take the Red Wolves here.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison (-2.5) vs. Air Force at Fort Worth, TX

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is not what we signed up for. This is not what we wanted when we finally got James Madison in a bowl. Jordan McCloud has entered the portal and will not play in this game. That's why the line took a dive. I'm not sure that the Dukes should even be favored anymore. Give me Air Force, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Georgia State (-6.5) at Utah State at Boise, ID

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I don't know about this one. Darren Grainger is still playing for the Panthers, but the transfer of Marcus Carroll leaves a gaping hole in the backfield. I'm not sure the Panthers win this by a touchdown, especially when half of the population of Logan, Utah will head up I-84 to watch this game. Give me the Aggies.

68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan at South Alabama (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Yes, the Jaguars get a home game in a bowl. Yes, Eastern Michigan starting quarterback Austin Smith is in the transfer portal. Yes, the Jags are going to cover this.

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (-6.5) vs. Northwestern at Las Vegas, NV

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line opened at -9.5 and is now closer to where it should be. I still feel like it's a little high. This is going to be a defensive battle. I like the under 41.5 better than the spread, but you know the drill. We do spreads here, and I like the Wildcats against the spread.

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-5.5) at Honolulu, HI

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

This feels low with the flock of players leaving Conway. The Chanticleers lose their leading passer(s), leading rusher, and leading receiver. Spartans win BIG!

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