MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/15/2025)

August 15, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/15/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Bryan Reynolds, Julio Rodriguez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Brent Rooker.

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, August 15, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups. Additionally, we have some warm weather all across the nation as we enter the dog days of summer. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 15, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/15/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 15:

• Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Brent Rooker, Athletics

Bryan Reynolds OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)

We are going to kick tonight's article off with Bryan Reynolds, who is playing in a day game at Wrigley Field, which is always fun to tune into on a Friday afternoon. Reynolds is not a likely candidate to go yard, as he only has a total of 13 home runs on the season. That being said, he has been on an absolute tear lately, which is why we are looking his way.

Over the previous week, Reynolds has popped three home runs while posting an OPS of 1.356. He also just smacked two home runs in his most recent game against the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon. Reynolds will be up against Cubs right-hander Colin Rea, which is also good news. On the season, Reynolds has hit more than half of his home runs off right-handed pitchers. He has also posted pretty solid power metrics, as noted by his 91.1 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the top 21% of the league.

Rea, meanwhile, has not looked good from a metrics standpoint. On the season, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.7 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 5% of the league. He has also allowed 27% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 13% of the league.

Additionally, Rea has allowed a total of 19 home runs, 13 of which have come off left-handed bats. He has also struggled at Wrigley Field, where he has allowed a 1.9 HR/9 mark, which is a full home run higher than his number on the road.

Two-homer game for Bryan Reynolds 👀 pic.twitter.com/bTEISlgHnu

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 13, 2025

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)

I was initially going to look at Cal Raleigh in this spot; however, he is not much fun in these pieces, given his typically low odds. Julio Rodriguez is another Mariners' right-handed hitter we can look at with a bit better odds. Rodriguez has also been hot lately, as noted by his 1.051 OPS and two home runs over the previous week. On the season, Rodriguez has hit a total of 23 home runs, and this is not all that surprising given the power metrics.

Overall, Rodriguez has posted an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph, which ranks him in the top 15% of the league. He has also posted a Barrels/PA mark of 6.7%, ranking him inside the top third of the league. Tonight, he will be up against Mets' left-hander Sean Manaea. Rodriguez has done well against lefties as well, and has an OPS of .810 with nine home runs against them.

Manaea has been hit pretty hard since his return in mid-July, having allowed a home run in four of his first five starts. He has also struggled against right-handed hitters across those five starts, having allowed all four home runs to them as well as four doubles.

Overall, Rodriguez should be in a good spot to maintain his hot streak tonight, and also makes for a solid play in his hits+runs+RBI prop.

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Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings)

Giancarlo Stanton might be my favorite play tonight, but the odds also reflect why that is the case. Since coming off the IL in mid-June, Stanton has been solid. He has also been tearing it up recently, having posted an OPS of 1.107 with seven home runs over the previous 21 days. His power metrics have also been something to marvel at, which should be expected given that he has mashed a total of 12 home runs already.

Overall, Stanton has posted an average exit velocity of 95.3 mph, which ranks him in the top 1% of baseball players. He has also posted a Barrels/PA mark of 10.6, ranking him in the top 3% of baseball. He has also had solid success against right-handed pitching, given his .969 OPS and 11 home runs against them.

Enter Andre Pallante, who has allowed a total of 16 home runs. He has also been giving up a ton of hard contact, as noted by his average exit velocity allowed of 83.0 mph, ranking him in the bottom 19% of the league. He has also allowed 27.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the bottom 13% of baseball players. The weather at Busch Stadium is also supposed to be in the 90s, which certainly won't help Pallante, who has posted an ERA of 5.21 at home this season.

Giancarlo Stanton has been one of the best hitters in baseball since he returned in June@DraftKings #DKPartner pic.twitter.com/osmXH7PJkq

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) August 14, 2025

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 DraftKings)

Brent Rooker is back in Sutter Health Park against a left-handed pitcher, which is always good news for him. On the season, he has mashed a total of 24 home runs, and while only five have come off left-handed pitchers, he is posting an OPS of 1.017 against them. The power metrics have been rather solid for Rooker as well.

Overall, he has posted an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, which ranks him in the top quartile of the league. He has also posted a Barrels/PA mark of  9.6%, which ranks him in the top 6% of the league. At home, he has also been superb, having posted an .861 OPS with 10 home runs.

That left-hander we were talking about earlier is Yusei Kikuchi of the Los Angeles Angels. While he has been rather solid at home this season, Kikuchi has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.0 HR/9 on the road. He has allowed a total of 17 home runs, 16 of which have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He has also allowed his fair share of hard contact.

Overall, he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.4 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 9% of the league. He has also allowed a Barrels/BBE mark of 5.8%, which ranks him in the bottom 16% of the league. This is a great spot for Rooker to catch Kikuchi and go yard.

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