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Jackson's list of the top college football head coaches facing the most pressure in 2025. Which NCAA HCs are under the most heat entering the 2025 season?
We are just under one month away from FBS football! Every year, the college football offseason feels like it'll never end, but then all of a sudden, it's back. Hopefully, these next handful of weeks fly by so "talking season" officially ends, and we get to watch everything play out on the field.
To keep the end of the offseason rolling, let's discuss Power 4 coaches under the most pressure in 2025. This IS NOT solely a hot seat list. Spoiler alert: You'll see Dabo Swinney listed below. He is not even close to the hot seat. Clemson could go 3-9, and he likely would not be fired. But that doesn't mean he's not facing a ton of pressure to win this season. Some coaches on this list ARE on or are headed toward the hot seat, but not all of them.
We're focusing mostly on programs that have high expectations for 2025 thanks to offseason additions, overall talent composition, historical trends, and other factors. That said, coaches like Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), Scott Satterfield (Cincinnati), Mike Locksley (Maryland), and Justin Wilcox (California) are not included.
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
2024 Record: 9-4
Hot Seat Rating: Cool
Coming from Washington, DeBoer had an impossible task ahead of him when he accepted the job at Alabama, at least in Year 1. No one can replace the greatest college football coach of all time, and the difficulty in doing so should not be overlooked.
However, 9-4 simply isn't going to cut it in Tuscaloosa. 9-4 might as well be a losing season based on what the program and fan base have come to expect. DeBoer's rookie season in the SEC can be excused. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was not a good fit, and even though the roster was still littered with talent, the transition from one philosophy and personality at the top of a program can be a tricky one.
Now in Year 2, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is back on his staff, and the Tide have the potential to field the best defense in the country. His job is not on the line this year unless Alabama completely melts down like Florida State did last year. No one is expecting that to happen, but that would be the only scenario where he's not retained for another season.
Kalen DeBoer says OC Ryan Grubb brings experience to the Crimson Tide coaching staff. #RollTide pic.twitter.com/dESLjtGvUj
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) June 25, 2025
That said, he needs to compete for an SEC Championship and at least make the College Football Playoff to get in the good graces of the fan base. Failing to do so will create a do-or-die situation in 2026.
James Franklin, Penn State
2024 Record: 13-3
Hot Seat Rating: Freezing
Franklin has done a fantastic job at Penn State. Bill O'Brien stepped in and stabilized the program after the controversial exit of Joe Paterno, but Franklin has led the Nittany Lions to five top-10 finishes in the last nine seasons. He's now won the Big Ten title, competed for another, and won two playoff games. But 2025 feels like the year he could break through and capture his first national championship.
Led by the return of quarterback Drew Allar and fantastic running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, many publications have Penn State as their preseason No. 1 team in the country. The program is among the top four favorites by most sportsbooks to win the title. Franklin likely has the most job security of anyone on this list, but these are arguably the highest expectations Penn State has had in decades.
Many call Franklin overrated, but you could argue that he and Penn State have been properly rated. For the most part, they win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are expected to lose. That needs to change in 2025 for Franklin's reputation to shift.
Expect the program to be heavily favored in all of its games except two: vs. Oregon and at Ohio State. The results of those two contests will largely tell us what we need to know about its chances to legitimately compete to be the final team standing in January.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
2024 Record: 5-7
Hot Seat Rating: Warm
Hugh Freeze is at least on the "warm" seat entering 2025. Did he enter a great situation in taking over for Bryan Harsin? Absolutely not. But do Tiger fans expect a lot better than simply competing to make a bowl game in Year 3? Absolutely.
A lot will ride on quarterback Jackson Arnold, who was essentially run out of Norman for his disastrous 2024 campaign at Oklahoma. However, there's no doubt his supporting cast at Auburn will be much better than what he worked with at OU. Wide receivers Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. have the potential to form one of the best WR duos in the country, but there are still reasons to be pessimistic about Arnold's chances to break out.
Maxwell Award Watch List 🦅🏆
➡️ @_JacksonArnold_ @CamColeman12
📰 https://t.co/Y9we5us9cp pic.twitter.com/k2vSX7kkxE
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) July 28, 2025
Either way, Freeze, known for his prolific offenses, better find a way to get it out of him. Auburn will open the season on Friday night at Baylor, and losing in a Friday prime-time slot would be a horrific start. Auburn doesn't have the most difficult schedule in the SEC, but it'll continue to have the misfortune of playing Georgia and Alabama. Failing to make a bowl game again could mark the end of Freeze's time on The Plains.
Brian Kelly, LSU
2024 Record: 9-4
Hot Seat Rating: Warm
Ed Orgeron didn't exactly leave the LSU program in tremendous shape, but come on now. It's LSU. Each of the Tigers' last three coaches won the national championship, and Brian Kelly, despite having a loaded roster, has not come close. In a world where there is a 12-team College Football Playoff, LSU should never miss the dance.
It's Year 4 for the former Notre Dame coach, and time is running out to re-establish LSU as one of the elite football programs in the nation. There is no resource LSU does not have, and you hardly have to leave the state of Louisiana to pick up a top-5 recruiting class.
LSU is 0-3 in season-opening games under Kelly, and the Week 1 matchup on the road against Clemson is arguably the toughest test it will face. Starting behind the eight-ball with little room for error might foreshadow what is to come. Behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, what should be an improved defense, and the No. 1 transfer portal class, there is no excuse not to be playing in meaningful postseason games this year.
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech
2024 Record: 8-5
Hot Seat Rating: Cool
How could there be a lot of pressure on a Texas Tech coach who has been pretty successful? Well, because the No. 2 transfer portal class was signed by the Red Raiders, and the program is pouring serious resources into building a contender in the wide-open Big 12.
Head Coach Joey McGuire talking about putting the team under pressure to see how they react to it, and get then to what's next. pic.twitter.com/DQVYMsl4T6
— Double T 97-3 🌵 (@DoubleT973) July 29, 2025
Tech also ranks first in defensive returning production and fourth in total returning production. Quarterback Behren Morton, who threw for 3,335 yards, 27 touchdowns, and eight picks, is also back. The Red Raiders have the formula to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff. If not this season, then when?
McGuire's job is safe through 2025 unless the team completely unravels, but if Texas Tech doesn't at least compete as a high-level contender in the conference, there will be questions about whether he can get it done.
Billy Napier, Florida
2024 Record: 8-5
Hot Seat Rating: Warm
Many believed the 2024 season would be the final one for Napier in Gainesville. And after a 4-5 start, there was no reason to think otherwise. But then, true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway flashed future excellence, and the Gators ripped off five straight wins, including victories over No. 21 LSU and No. 9 Ole Miss. This gave the program and fan base reason for optimism, but Florida must build on the success in 2025.
A 19-19 record through three seasons isn't going to cut it, especially when that includes a 1-5 combined record against Tennessee and Georgia. Unfortunately, Lagway has been dealing with mysterious injuries this offseason, and his absence would limit the ceiling of the team in a must-win year for Napier.
Like many of the programs mentioned on this list, Florida expects to compete for championships and playoff wins every year. Once again, a daunting schedule lies ahead. Any regression from eight wins could cost Napier his job.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
2024 Record: 2-10
Hot Seat Rating: Hot
What a difference a year makes. Just one season removed from an undefeated regular season and ACC Championship victory, the Seminoles had the worst season imaginable in 2024. Slight regression after an emotional end to the 2023 campaign is understandable, but only winning two games at FSU is almost impressive. The DJ Uiagalelei experience went about as badly as it could have.
Florida State paid Memphis a $1.3 million guarantee to play in Tallahassee today.
The Tigers just won 20-12, sending FSU to 0-3. pic.twitter.com/Ep866qC5HW
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) September 14, 2024
Turning the page to this season, quarterback Tommy Castellanos and a team loaded with projected starters who came from the transfer portal will have to save Norvell. Opening the season against Alabama won't give the new pieces time to find their footing, and the Noles will also be traveling to Clemson and Florida late in the year.
Will things get ugly again, or will Norvell pull a rabbit out of his hat? Good luck.
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
2024 Record: 7-6
Hot Seat Rating: Medium
Last season, Rhule led Nebraska to its first bowl win since 2015. Step one is complete. That said, the Husker faithful is hopeful Rhule continues his "Year 3 leap." In Years 1 and 2 at Temple and Baylor, his teams won an average of four games. In Year 3 at those programs, he won an average of 10.5 games.
When you add in the fact that quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is Nebraska's second-highest-rated recruit in program history (24/7 Sports), now has a full season under his belt, it's easy to see why there is no shortage of optimism for the Huskers in 2025.
Rhule's job is safe, barring a disaster, and a schedule that does not include matchups with Oregon or Ohio State sets up well for him to continue the trend. Nebraska has College Football Playoff aspirations, and whether or not Rhule can get that done is one of the top storylines in the Big Ten.
Lincoln Riley, USC
2024 Record: 7-6
Hot Seat Rating: Medium
After taking the Trojans to the Pac-12 Championship Game behind Heisman quarterback Caleb Williams in 2021, it's been a rough showing for Riley in Southern Cal. Over the last two seasons, USC has tallied a 15-11 record, and the Big Ten was not kind to the program in its debut season.
Riley appeared to be a can't-miss home-run hire when he took the job with a 55-10 record that included four Big 12 titles and three College Football Playoff appearances. Now, there are questions about his ability to turn around a struggling program. He had it made at Oklahoma, a program that was in great shape after Bob Stoops stepped down, and rebuilding a historic program is a different challenge.
The Trojans have one of the top recruiting classes in the country for 2026, and Riley has a proven history of winning at a high level and producing Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Those factors are likely to give him extra job security, but the program and fan base can only be so patient. It's time to deliver.
Dabo Swinney, Clemson
2024 Record: 10-4
Hot Seat Rating: Freezing
As we mentioned in the intro, Swinney's Tigers could completely fall apart in 2025, and he'd still probably keep his job if he wanted to. But the 2025 version of Clemson should be his best team since Trevor Lawrence was on campus, and all the pieces are there for another national championship run.
Clemson adds its 2nd title to the Dabo Era!#NationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/ZRyw7DS5zZ
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 8, 2019
Clemson has not historically been a great program and high-level winner, but coaches become victims of their success, and the fans are ready to be a national powerhouse again -- not just a team that wins most of its games in a declining ACC.
Clemson ranks first nationally in total returning production, and the roster is littered with potential first-round NFL Draft picks. Cade Klubnik has transitioned from a game manager to a significant X factor, and the wide receiver trio of Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore is the best in the nation. And with T.J. Parker, Peter Woods, and Purdue transfer Will Heldt creating chaos in opposing backfields, an undefeated regular season is on the table.
Many have started dropping Swinney in their "head coach power rankings," but he can turn the tide if Clemson lives up to the hype.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
2024 Record: 6-7
Hot Seat Rating: Hot
Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley went a combined 246-58 (.810) over 23 seasons before Brent Venables took over the Sooners program. Needless to say, his 56.4 percent win percentage isn't going to cut it at one of college football's most storied programs.
Perhaps the decision-makers in Norman will give him a pass for struggling in the program's first year in the SEC, but Texas's success on the other side of the Red River Rivalry isn't going to help his cause.
Now, the hype continues to grow thanks to the additions of quarterback John Mateer, running back Jaydn Ott, and more. With the offense expected to be much improved and Venables back to calling defensive plays, the excuses are running out.
