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The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It's fair to say that Matchday 9 went well. We hit all three parlays and went a perfect 10-for-10 on our predictions of the match results. If you placed $10 on a moneyline parlay for all 10 games, you'd have bagged a cool $7,791.10. Not too shabby. Let's hope our luck continues into this weekend. A reminder that you can view the highlights of each team's previous game by clicking on their name.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Friday, October 27, 2023
Crystal Palace (+300) vs. Tottenham (-125) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Tottenham
Only one team has scored fewer than Palace (seven) this season. Their third blank in four games has seen them slip into the bottom half of the table. They have only lost one of their last four games though. Tottenham returned to the top of the table and remain one of the two unbeaten sides left in the league. Their 2-0 win on Monday was the eighth time in nine games they've scored twice or more in a game.
Palace has only conceded three goals at home (four games). But they have also only scored three and they all came in one half against Wolves. Tottenham's five away games have seen them score 12 goals but also concede six. It's just difficult to see where Palace will get a goal from right now. Their 4.2 xG (expected goals) at home is the lowest in the EPL.
FPL Pick: James Maddison
Maddison got his first home goal involvement on Monday, scoring Tottenham's second. He's tallied a goal involvement in all five away games, totaling two goals and five assists. Although Palace likely won't afford him much space, Maddison should still find enough to create chances and test the 'keeper himself. I expect one goal involvement at least.
Saturday, October 28, 2023
Chelsea (-165) vs. Brentford (+425) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 1 Brentford
Despite blowing a two-goal lead, Chelsea extended their unbeaten run to three games following their 2-2 draw with Arsenal. The point did move them into the top half of the table. Brentford ended a six-game winless run when they brushed aside Burnley. They have only picked up one point from their last three away games, after beating Fulham 3-0 in their first away game of the season.
Brentford's 6.7 xG away from home is the tenth most in the league. However, they only have 3.0 xG in their last three away games. Brentford also has the third-best expected goals against (3.8 xGA). Chelsea has shown signs they are finally gelling as a team. I do expect them to win this game but they needed a contentious penalty and a fluke to score twice against Arsenal. They have only won one of their five home games so it likely won't be a walkover.
FPL Pick: Cole Palmer
I mentioned Palmer as a player to watch in FPL following his transfer from Manchester City. He's now started Chelsea's last three games, tallying a goal involvement in each of them (two goals and two assists). His two goals have both come from the penalty spot but it's only a matter of time before he scores from open play and I expect that to come this Saturday. The number of teams he's rostered on will keep climbing in the coming weeks too.
After attacking returns in his last three, Cole Palmer is on the up ⬆
Which Chelsea players do you currently own in #FPL? 🔵 pic.twitter.com/GXfUr8XoyV
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 24, 2023
Arsenal (-800) vs. Sheffield United (+1700) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 0 Sheffield United
Arsenal's fightback against Chelsea ensured they remain unbeaten this season. It was notable that they still managed to secure a point despite putting in arguably their worst performance of the season and trailing 2-0. Sheffield United remain rooted to the foot of the table without a win and just a solitary point from their nine games. They did perform well against Manchester United last time out but have conceded at least two in all five away games.
Arsenal's only clean sheet at home came against Manchester City in their last home game. However, their 0.92 xGA per game at home is the fourth-best in the EPL. Sheffield United's 2.8 xG away from home is the lowest in the league and while they have shown some fight in games, a comfortable home win looks the likeliest outcome.
FPL Pick: Bukayo Saka
Saka returned from injury to bag a late assist last time out. It was his eighth goal involvement in eight games this season. His only blank came at Crystal Palace on matchday 2 while three of his four goals scored have come at home (four games). Despite missing a game, Saka's 58 points scored is the joint third most in FPL among midfielders. He could finish up with a midfield trifecta (goal, assist and clean sheet) and is a strong captain option.
Bukayo Saka takes the armband at Arsenal for the first time 🫡
With Sheff Utd (H) up next, will you consider making Saka your captain in Gameweek 10? 💭#FPL https://t.co/WvhK9piFKy
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 23, 2023
Bournemouth (+115) vs. Burnley (+220) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 1 Burnley
Bournemouth remain without a win after slipping up at home to Wolves. Despite that, a win would see them leapfrog their opponents in the league table. Burnley have now lost back-to-back games after picking up their first win of the season. They've conceded seven goals in those two games and sport the second-lowest expected goals total (3.4 xG) on the road.
Two of Bournemouth's three draws this season have come at home. But they have just two goals in those five home games while conceding nine. Burnley's only win of the season came on the road against Luton. Two of their three away goals came in that game and they've yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Bournemouth's propensity to gift opponents chances could see the away side score but I fear that still would not be enough.
FPL Pick: Dominik Solanke
Burnley have been unable to defend wide forwards, with Raheem Sterling (16) and Bryan Mbeumo (14) both having big points hauls against them in the last two weeks. Bournemouth don't have much threat from wide positions but I suspect they will still be able to create chances for Solanke. The striker scored last week with a neat finish and has now scored four goals in nine games.
Wolves (+330) vs. Newcastle United (-135) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Wolves' impressive run continued as they are now four games unbeaten. They have only taken four points from their four home games. Both teams have scored in all four of Wolves' home games. Given all four opponents are currently in the top seven spots of the league, that's not a bad return. Newcastle dispatched Palace comfortably and now have a five-game unbeaten run in the league. Their 24 goals scored this season are the most in the EPL.
Eight of Newcastle's 11 away goals came against Sheffield United. Take out that anomaly and they have scored three goals while conceding six on their travels. Their exertions against Dortmund in midweek might come into play this weekend. What is clear is how detailed Gary O'Neil sets up Wolves tactically and gives some fascinating insight into his side's tactics against Bournemouth. I fancy the home side to cause a bit of an upset this week.
FPL Pick: Pedro Neto
Neto's remarkable run continued last week as he picked up another assist. It's now seven straight games with a goal involvement (one goal and seven assists). He also hit the woodwork against Bournemouth while his pace and ability have been crucial to Wolves' tactics in recent games. I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps his run of goal involvements going on Saturday.
Sunday, October 29, 2023
West Ham United (+110) vs. Everton (+240) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 0 Everton
West Ham's horrid run of fixtures has come to an end. Four of their last five games have been against sides currently in the top five of the league. It's no surprise that they have just four points in that time. Everton have yet to take a point from a game against a side in the top half of the league table. Their only clean sheet came at home to the league's lowest scorers (Bournemouth).
All nine of Everton's goals this season have come in four games, all against sides currently placed 14th or lower in the table. Their five games against sides placed 13th or better have seen them fail to score. West Ham's sole home clean sheet came in the only game they've faced a side in the bottom half of the table. Their odds don't seem to take into account the difficulty of their recent schedule as being the reason why they've struggled of late.
FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus
Jarrod Bowen has rightly been getting all of the plaudits and I'd certainly make sure I had him rostered given West Ham's upcoming schedule. But I'm backing Kudus to get a run in the side and make his first EPL start this Sunday. He's made six sub appearances in the league, scoring from the bench against Newcastle. At 0.4% rostered, Kudus is the perfect differential this week and it's a great time to add him as their schedule eases.
Aston Villa (-390) vs. Luton Town (+950) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 - 1 Luton Town
Villa's impressive start to the season continued with their 4-1 win against West Ham. They're unbeaten in their last five EPL games and along with Liverpool, have a 100% record at home. Luton's come-from-behind draw at Nottingham Forest keeps them out of the relegation zone. Even at this early stage, the pre-season favorites for relegation will be encouraged by that. Luton's 11 goals conceded away from home is the joint-most in the league.
Luton struggled with crosses into the box last week and Villa's attack-minded full-backs could certainly have some joy in this game. Luton has scored in six of their nine games this season but also failed to keep a clean sheet. Villa's 17 goals scored at home (four games) are the most in the league and although Luton's last seven games have been decided by no more than one goal, I expect that to change this weekend.
FPL Pick: Lucas Digne
I already alluded to Luton's struggles from crosses last week and no one in the league has put in more crosses than Digne (67). His 29 shot-creating actions are third most on the team and third most among all defenders. Villa have been prolific at home and I expect Digne to be involved in much of how they attack Luton on Sunday.
Brighton (-195) vs. Fulham (+475) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 0 Fulham
Brighton gave Manchester City a scare last weekend but ultimately failed to win for a third straight game. They've conceded ten goals in those three games but they were all against sides currently in the top five of the table. Fulham's three wins this season all came against sides placed 16th or lower. Their 9.8 xGA away from home is the third highest but they're happy enough with Head Coach Marco Silva to have awarded him a new contract.
⚪️⚫️ Official: Marco Silva has extended his contract with Fulham until 2026.
“I feel that the business is not done yet, we’ve had two great seasons, and the goal is clearly there to sustain this Club in the Premier League”. pic.twitter.com/qcsTrsPt3A
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 24, 2023
There's no doubting Brighton's attacking talents, although they have been hit by some injuries recently. Only Aston Villa (17) have more home goals than Brighton (13). Only three of Brighton's nine games this season have been against bottom-half sides. They've scored ten goals in those games. Fulham have failed to score in three of their last four EPL games and the lack of a true goalscorer has been noticeable.
FPL Pick: Ansu Fati
The Barcelona loanee is looking to get his young career back on track. Once considered a mega-prospect, Fati struggled for game time and form before his move. He's yet to start an EPL game so far but has scored as a sub against Machester City and Aston Villa. The 20-year-old has done enough coming off the bench to warrant starting this weekend and he's certainly someone worth keeping an eye on given Brighton's attacking intent.
Liverpool (-350) vs. Nottingham Forest (+800) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Liverpool maintained their 100% home record and kept only their second clean sheet of the season in last week's Merseyside Derby. It was the first time they failed to score three goals in a home game this season. Forest blew a two-goal lead to draw a third-straight game. They've now gone five games without a win, but only lost once in that time (away at Manchester City).
Forest had joy with crosses to Chris Wood last weekend but it's hard to see them getting into many similar positions this weekend. They've scored just once in their last three away games and failed to find the net in their last two. As well as scoring two or more in all four home games, Liverpool's conceded just two goals at Anfield. Forest continues to be without top-scorer Taiwo Awoniyi and it is set to be another empty away day for them.
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
Salah is inevitable. Salah at home is unstoppable. Last week's brace saw the Egyptian take his tally to seven goals and four assists (nine games). He's scored in every home game so far and the only game he's not had a goal involvement was their controversial 2-1 defeat at Tottenham (in which Liverpool played three-quarters of the game down a player. Expect Salah to keep his remarkable home goal-involvement run intact on Sunday.
Mo Salah has either scored or assisted in each of his last 13 Premier League appearances at Anfield 👑 pic.twitter.com/fn9rm41QQD
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) October 21, 2023
Manchester United (+370) vs. Manchester City (-135) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 3 Manchester City
United comes into the Manchester Derby on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions. The concern is, they've massively ridden their luck in that run. They've needed injury-time goals, last-minute missed penalties and the unlikeliest of scorers to keep them afloat. City's form hasn't been great either but they've put the back-to-back defeats behind them and still sit in second place, just two points off of first.
This is a game that has produced plenty of goals recently. Their last four encounters in all competitions have seen 20 goals and both times finding the net in each of them. After keeping a clean sheet in their opening home game of the season, United has not kept one since (four games), conceding seven goals in the process. City's two defeats both came on the road but they still scored nine goals in their five away games.
FPL Pick: Phil Foden
Foden has been something of a disappointment in FPL this season. His 40 points rank 16th among midfielders so it hasn't been disastrous. Foden has started eight of City's nine EPL games this season, playing 90 minutes in each of the last three. A defensive injury crisis has seen United deploy Victor Lindelöf at left-back and he could be exposed by Foden's movement throughout the game.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Palace 0 – 2 Tottenham | Tottenham -125 | U2.5 +110 | No +125 |
| Chelsea 2 – 1 Brentford | Chelsea -165 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -130 |
| Arsenal 3 – 0 Sheff United | Arsenal -800 | O2.5 -270 | No -165 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Burnley | Bournemouth +115 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -160 |
| Wolves 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +300 | U2.5 +105 | Yes -145 |
| West Ham 2 – 0 Everton | West Ham +110 | U2.5 -140 | No +130 |
| Aston Villa 3 – 1 Luton | Aston Villa -390 | O2.5 -200 | Yes +100 |
| Brighton 3 – 0 Fulham | Brighton -195 | O2.5 -210 | No +130 |
| Liverpool 2 – 0 Notts Forest | Liverpool -350 | U2.5 +180 | No +100 |
| Man United 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -135 | O2.5 -140 | Yes -155 |
| Season totals | 53/90 | 51/90 | 55/90 |
| Season parlays | 2/9 (-1.27u) | 2/9 (+2.53u) | 5/9 (+16.17u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
