RADIO
Welcome to the first installment of the Defense Edition of my Fantasy Matchmaker article series. In today’s fantasy football, the Defense/Special Teams (DST) starting roster spot is slowly becoming less common. Some prefer to replace that spot with another WR or flex. Half the leagues I am in do not have a DST. Some see the DST position (and kicker) as too volatile and unpredictable for the potential impact they can have on a matchup. Some just want to start more RBs and WRs. And I get it. Those leagues are fun. But much like the redraft, one-QB, half-PPR home league I’ve been in since 2006, there will always be a special place in my heart for the DST position.
I enjoy the process. The results are cool and all, but I enjoy the analysis and the hunt across all fantasy skill positions. Looking for that next sleeper. Trying to be one week early on an upcoming waiver darling. These endeavors are a big part of the fun I have participating in fantasy football. And since my beginning, that has included the DST position.
I am a DST streamer. Always have been and always will be. I intentionally turn streaming DSTs into a jigsaw puzzle that I find fun and exciting. Don’t worry, I fully accepted and leaned into my existence as a huge fantasy football nerd long ago.
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D/ST Strength Of Schedule Overview
In this weekly series, I will be presenting my fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) for DST matchups.
I have been tweaking and adjusting my process for determining DST matchup strength over the last two years. My goal with this is to help all of you DST streamers out there by presenting the data and discussing my strategy and decision-making process.
There are different types of DST streaming targets every week as the NFL schedule plays out and new information becomes available. The structure of this article will start with presenting some relevant team defense statistics, such as turnover rate and points allowed, to be used for reference.
I will then show each DST/team’s schedule for the next five weeks with each opponent’s matchup strength based on adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This is what I’ll use to make my weekly DST streamer calls.
Each article will end with the rest of season (ROS) schedule for each DST, showing the same opponent matchup strength, including the projected SOS for each DST during the fantasy playoffs.
In this weekly series, I will be presenting my fantasy strength of schedule (SOS) for D/ST matchups.
D/ST Strength of Schedule Process
In determining SOS and matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points.
But if the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only 1.0 PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) is negative seven. Team B’s POA is plus four. I assign a weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank.
The DST scoring system I base my process on is the standard ESPN DST scoring settings.
I developed descriptors for the different types of DST streamers that materialize each week:
- “Temporary” Streamer: DST with a good matchup you are picking up to start for only that week.
- “Part-Time” Streamer: DST with multiple good matchups in a row.
- “Recruit” Streamer: DST with a good upcoming schedule that you pick up a week early. It can be a DST with a bad matchup in the current week or a DST that is on bye. In general, I don’t advise rostering two DSTs. But there are times if you have an open roster spot when it makes sense to preemptively grab next week’s streamer. Typically, you would do this for what would likely be a sought-after streamer the following week, so you don’t have to use a waiver claim or FAAB.
- “Fool’s Gold” Streamer: A bad defense in a good matchup where the bad will outweigh the good. Do not start.
Week 5 Team Defense Statistics
Like any other fantasy skill position, there are two opposing forces at play. We need to look at the strength of the fantasy player (DST in this case) as well as the strength of the opponent versus the DST position. With DST, we look at the team’s defense and how their opponent has done against DSTs, or how good their opponent’s offense has been. This first section takes a look at team defense statistics that are relevant (both directly and indirectly) to how DST points are scored.
The chart below shows the following team defense statistics:
- Points Per Game (PPG) Allowed (regular NFL points, not fantasy points)
- Interception (INT) Rate (INT per pass attempt)
- Pressure Rate (QB pressures per QB dropback)
- QB Pressure: When a QB is hurried, knocked down, and/or sacked
- Sack Rate (sacks per QB dropback)
- Turnover Rate (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover)
*Team defense stats taken from Pro Football Reference.
This chart is arranged in alphabetical order, making it easier to see each team’s position across each statistic. The darker the green shading, the stronger that defense is in that metric.
Here is the same data arranged from highest to lowest.
This data does not factor into matchup strength. Instead, I use it for a couple of reasons. It helps provide context for the weekly RotoBaller DST ranks that will be used. And, more importantly, the team data can be crucial when faced with the common “bad defense in a good matchup” conundrum.
There won’t necessarily be much to glean from this data by itself every week. The upper-tier defenses will be at the top of these categories. These are the DSTs that don’t warrant much discussion in this series because they are highly rostered and typically are not streaming options. But I will point out noteworthy nuggets when they appear.
Another data set that is relevant to DST decisions includes the Las Vegas odds for things like over-under point totals, point spreads, and implied team total points. The oddsmakers are good at what they do and have a knack for being close to the mark on average. It’s a valuable piece of the puzzle. For instance, in general, a home favorite whose opponent has a low implied team total is a pretty good bet to not allow a lot of points to be scored.
And when the odds point toward a potential shootout, that’s not automatically a bad thing. Yes, a DST loses fantasy points as they allow more real points. I don’t attach as much weight to that as many seem to. I go into pretty much every week assuming my DST will receive approximately zero fantasy points from the points-allowed scoring setting. Typically, your DST starts with 10 points because zero points allowed are worth 10 fantasy points. After 18 points are allowed, those fantasy points go down to zero. But after 18 points allowed, the decrease is much less significant. It’s not really until you get toward the 40 points allowed that you start losing noticeable fantasy points from that setting.
I am more interested in sacks and turnovers, worth the same amount all game long. If a DST is projected for a shootout, which typically involves higher than normal pass volumes and more plays, I look at both the interception and sack rate for my DST and how often the opponent throws picks and takes sacks. A shootout provides more opportunities for DST fantasy points from multiple scoring methods.
The following chart shows the Week 6 odds for each game, including over-under, point spread, and the resulting implied team point totals. I will refer back to this data when discussing this week’s DST targets.
DST Strength of Schedule: Weeks 6-10
In the debut of this series, I used a four-week look-ahead to look at the strength of schedule for DSTs. But we are now into the bye weeks, so I’m extending it to a five-week look ahead so we still have a total of four upcoming matchups to assess for each DST.
The following chart shows the five-week look-ahead schedule for each DST, with each opponent color-coded based on matchup strength.
The chart is sorted by left-most column, which is RotoBaller’s Week 6 DST rankings. The next column is crucial for the effectiveness of the advice. It shows the ESPN rostership percentage for each DST. The shading in this column is greener for lower rostership. I want the lower-rostered teams to stand out because that is the DST streamer player pool. It also helps spotlight lower-rostered DSTs that are ranked higher for that week (like the Raiders and Vikings, more on them later).
The right-most columns show my current numbered ranks for each team in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the DST position. This allows you to see the numbered rank that is represented by the color-coding in the Weeks 6-10 opponents. Generally, a DST needs to be rostered in less than 50% of leagues to qualify as a streaming option.
The following are my Week 6 DST streamers, including streamer type, Week 6 opponent (with the opponent’s rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs in parentheses), and current ESPN rostership percentage.
Week 6 DST Streamers
Atlanta Falcons (Temporary Streamer)
Week 6 Opponent: Commanders (31st)
ESPN Rostership: 32.8%
Over-Under: 42.5 points
Opponent’s Implied Total Points: 22.5
The Falcons have been a surprisingly effective NFL defense so far in 2023, but it has yet to show up on the fantasy scoreboard. Their best DST fantasy total came in Week 1 versus the Panthers (12 points). Since then, they have only averaged two fantasy points per game.
So why would we consider them as a Week 6 streamer? This will be the Falcons’ first positive DST matchup since Week 1. The Commanders have allowed nine or more DST fantasy points to three of the five teams they’ve faced, including 18 to the Cardinals in Week 1. On average, the DSTs facing the Commanders have scored 6.4 points above their average (AKA a +6.4 POA allowed).
Regarding sacks, something has to give in this matchup. The Falcons have the fifth-highest pressure rate (28.2%) but have rarely turned that into sacks, as they have the NFL’s lowest sack rate (2.9%). Sam Howell leads the NFL having been sacked 29 times (5.8 per game). The Falcons should improve that sack rate in Week 6.
Las Vegas Raiders (Part-Time Streamer)
Week 6 Opponent: Patriots (30th)
ESPN Rostership: 15.8%
Over-Under: 41.5 points
Opponent’s Implied Total Points: 22.3
The Patriots offense is a mess right now, to the point where a below-average DST like the Raiders is a strong streaming option at only 15.8% rostered. After going through the first three weeks without forcing a turnover, the Raiders have four interceptions in the last two games against the Chargers and Packers.
The Patriots have allowed 14.6 DST points per game, and that number includes only allowing one DST fantasy point to the Jets in Week 3. If you ignore that game (which you can’t, but we will anyway), the Patriots’ average DST points allowed per game is 18. On average, they’ve allowed a +5.2 POA to DSTs, including allowing 27 and 24 DST points in the last two games.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Borderline Part-Time Streamer)
Week 6 Opponent: Colts (7th)
ESPN Rostership: 18.3%
Over-Under: 46.5 points
Opponent’s Implied Total Points: 21.0
This call looks off at first glance. Why would a seventh-ranked (seventh-toughest) opponent be an appealing DST matchup? The primary answer is Gardner Minshew. The Colts’ strong showing against DSTs so far has largely come with Anthony Richardson at QB. Richardson played like a rookie at times, but one thing he didn’t do was turn the ball over, with only two on the season (one interception and one lost fumble).
Minshew hasn’t been a turnover machine either with a career interception rate of only 1.5%. But if the Jaguars can build a lead, forcing the Colts out of the run-heavy approach I envision them striving for, the Jaguars could do some feasting. They are top-10 in interceptions per pass attempt, pressure rate, and turnover rate. If my process involved qualitatively adjusting a team’s rank based on a QB change (which it does not currently), I would have the Colts lower than seventh.
Houston Texans (Temporary plus Recruit Streamer)
Week 6 Opponent: Saints (21st)
ESPN Rostership: 16.0%
Over-Under: 42.5 points
Opponent’s Implied Total Points: 22.0
This last option isn’t as strong as the three listed above, but they are a decent play if you are stuck. The Texans were one of my streamer calls in Week 5 against the Falcons, but I stipulated that the call could backfire if the Falcons were able to play their style of game (run-heavy resulting in fewer opportunities for sacks and turnovers). And that’s what happened, as the Texans DST scored only four points.
The Saints are a good but not great DST matchup, and the Texans have been below average in forcing sacks and turnovers. But Derek Carr has been downright bad this season and has thrown an interception in each of the last two games. The Saints may try to keep the ball on the ground with a healthy Alvin Kamara and a potentially emerging Kendre Miller, but their season-long pass rate is close to 60%. The Texans have a solid defense that just hasn’t equated to big DST days yet. That could change in Week 6.
Recruit Streamers
As a reminder, these are DSTs you would not start or are on bye in Week 6 but have good matchups in Week 7 (and in some cases beyond Week 7), so you might consider a one-week stash if your roster allows that freedom.
- Green Bay Packers (31.6% rostership): Week 7 opponent: 22nd-ranked Broncos
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21.6% rostership): Week 7 opponent: 28th-ranked Falcons
- New York Jets (56.5% rostership): The Jets are a bit out of place on this list, but they need to be on your radar. They play the Eagles in Week 6 (no thanks) then have a bye in Week 7. They are also above the 50% rostership threshold. However, that rostership is likely to decline during their Week 7 bye week, and they have the current best DST matchup in Week 8 against the Giants. Just keep your eye on them and consider stashing them during the bye week.
- Seattle Seahawks (18.8% rostership): Week 7 opponent: Eighth-ranked Cardinals. This is also seemingly out of place, but even with the Cardinals being a bad DST opponent thus far, I like the Seahawks' DST against them at home. Similar to the Jets, this is also about their Week 8 matchup against the 27th-ranked Browns (also at home).
Fool’s Gold Streamers:
These are DSTs with good matchups that you will be tempted to start. I am here to warn against that decision.
Minnesota Vikings
Week 6 Opponent: Bears (29th)
ESPN Rostership: 9.4%
The Vikings' defense is bad and the Bears' fantasy-friendly rank versus DSTs is largely based on the pre-good-Justin-Fields games earlier in the season. A lot of us fell into the trap of starting the Commanders' DST against the Bears in Week 5, and the Vikings' DST is a similar trap.
Washington Commanders
Week 6 Opponent: Falcons (28th)
ESPN Rostership: 29.9%
This might be based on some pain and recency bias after swapping out the Chiefs for the Commanders DST last week led to a close loss to my brother in my longest-standing home league. This game should be low-scoring and ugly and I don't think the Falcons provide much opportunity for turnovers in this Week 6 matchup.
DST Streaming Action Plan
This is a new section I’ll be adding each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will always feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
Looking at Weeks 6-10, here is a potential DST action plan:
- Week 6: Stream the Falcons against the 31st-ranked Commanders.
- Week 7: Stream the Buccaneers against the 28th-ranked Falcons.
- Week 8: Coming off their bye, when they’ll likely fall below 50% rostership (perhaps picking them up during their bye week), stream the Jets versus the 32nd-ranked Giants.
- Week 9: Stream the Raiders versus the 32nd-ranked Giants.
- Week 10: Stream the Seahawks at home versus the 31st-ranked Commanders.
Other than the Jets, I do not see a strong likelihood any of these teams will significantly increase in rostership to thwart this streaming combination. The Seahawks do have multiple good matchups approaching. If the Jets are not an option in Week 8, the Seahawks would be a good backup plan at home versus the 27th-ranked Browns.
Then, you could potentially take your lumps with the Seahawks against the Ravens in Week 9 or carry two DSTs (keep the Seahawks) and play the Raiders in Week 9. Having the Seahawks in Week 10 is probably the most crucial piece of this puzzle as that looks like a bad week for <50% rostership DST streaming options. I will revisit this action plan in Week 7 and adjust the advice (if necessary) based on the results of Week 6.
Rest of Season DST Rankings: Strength of Schedule
I don’t rely too much on the later-season schedule SOS because things change rapidly in the NFL and I am not stashing a DST now for the fantasy playoffs that are 12 weeks away. But I do generate this data weekly, so it makes sense to include it at the end of each article. The five-week look-ahead shown above is just a close-up of this data, looking only at Weeks 6-10.
This chart shows the remaining schedule for each DST (not including Week 18) and their color-coded opponents based on the current matchup strength rankings. On the right side of the column are two separate SOS scores. These scores are calculated by averaging the ranks of the opponents across two phases:
- The rest of the regular season (Weeks 6-14)
- Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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