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Kevin Hickey's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/30/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. The regular season is down to its final Saturday, which creates more variables and more opportunities to gain an edge. Football season can wait because I'll be all over baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water this season, going 22-24-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting back in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for September 30, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SDP (-162)
SDP: Michael Wacha | CHW: Mike Clevinger
We begin with an irrelevant showdown between the Padres and White Sox. Both teams gave up any postseason hopes a while ago, but the betting action counts all the same. The pitching matchup in this contest is mostly indiscernible, though there's a clear discrepancy with these lineups. September has been San Diego's best month of the season, going 18-7, and I expect them to finish out the month strong today.
Michael Wacha gets the nod for the Padres on Saturday. He's coming off a strong seven-inning, two-run performance against the Cardinals on Sunday. Though the advanced numbers suggest he is owed some regression, Wacha sports an impressive 3.39 ERA through 23 outings this season. His marquee ability is inducing consistently weak contact, surrendering just a 35.5% hard-hit rate and an 88.2 MPH average exit velocity.
https://x.com/PadresStrong/status/1706105000790052929?s=20
Wacha couldn't draw a more ideal matchup, as the White Sox have operated baseball's most unfortunate offense in September. They're scoring only 3.2 runs per game this month. That mark includes a league-worst 73 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a pathetic .642 OPS and .279 wOBA -- each also the worst in the majors. Chicago's best hitter, Luis Robert Jr., was recently shut down for the remainder of the season, leaving this lineup lacking talent.
For the White Sox, Mike Clevinger takes the bump. At a glance, his numbers are nearly identical to Wacha, featuring a 3.40 ERA through 23 appearances. Similarly, there's also plenty of regression in Clevinger's numbers, highlighted by an ugly 5.17 xFIP. He additionally induces weak contact, allowing an 87.9 MPH average exit velocity and 35.3% hard-hit rate. There isn't much to separate these two teams at pitcher, but Clevinger faces a much more imposing lineup.
The Padres have been one of baseball's hottest teams this month. They're scoring 5.7 runs per game in September, including a 108 wRC+, .744 OPS, and .324 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Unlike their opponent, the San Diego lineup is mostly healthy, and a roll call of Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado is no easy task. Clevinger should have his hands full against his former team.
For the reasons outlined above, I anticipate a decisive Padres victory today. Although it doesn't matter in the grand scheme, San Diego capping off their best month of the season, and there may be no more feeble opponent these days than this White Sox team without Luis Robert Jr.
Pick: Padres -1.5 Run Line (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL (-135)
BOS: Kutter Crawford | BAL: Kyle Gibson
On to the next game, where the Red Sox take on the Orioles. Boston has been eliminated from playoff consideration, while Baltimore has already cemented their spot atop the American League East. Like most games today, the outcome of this matchup is unimportant in the big picture of the season. Game one of the series was a low-scoring affair, though I expect more fireworks in this one.
Kutter Crawford gets the ball for Boston on Saturday. Through 30 appearances, he sports an uninspired 4.23 ERA and 4.39 xFIP. Crawford's advanced numbers indicate he's likely due for some positive regression, but he's far from an imposing pitcher.
The Orioles are a tough opponent for Crawford. They rested several key players yesterday after clinching their division title, but I expect to see Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Anthony Santander back in the lineup today. Altogether, Baltimore is scoring 5.1 runs per game in September. That mark includes a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .738 OPS and .319 wOBA.
Kyle Gibson will take the mound for Baltimore. Through 32 outings this season, he sports a 4.86 ERA and 4.16 xFIP. Gibson has been smacked around to the tune of a 44.3% hard-hit rate, .265 xBA, and .437 xBA. He's been hit especially hard by left-handed batters, so guys like Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Alex Verdugo should be well-positioned for big days.
The Red Sox's 2023 season has been overall disappointing, but they offer a very capable offense. Boston scores a solid 4.8 runs per game on the season. That includes a .755 OPS against right-handed pitchers with a .325 wOBA. The matchup and ballpark favor left-handed power, so Boston's lefty-prominent lineup should fare well during this game.
I have a tough time separating these two teams today, but I expect a lot more offense than the eight-run total represents. Either one or both of these teams should be able to put up some numbers against these middling pitchers.
Pick: Over 8 Total Runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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