Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 22)

August 24, 2023

Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 22 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.

Undervalued Players To Trade For

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, OF, San Diego Padres

Despite hitting only .261 with a .324 on-base percentage, Fernando Tatis Jr. won’t exactly be easy to acquire. That’s what happens when a player hits 20 home runs and steals 23 bases in 491 plate appearances.

It’s more than that with Tatis, more that makes him a candidate for significant progression to the mean as well as a prime candidate to pursue in trades for fantasy managers. For just the .261 batting average and .324 on-base percentage, Tatis is making all sorts of elite contact. Like a ton of it. A lot. You get the picture.

The 24-year-old is sporting a .386 xwOBA on the season, not to mention a 50.7% hard-hit rate and a 12.0% barrel rate. He’s also logged a .295 xBA, not to mention a .542 xSLG. They’re a bit below his 2021 numbers, and the barrel rate is more good than great, but the rest of Tatis Jr.’s underlying metrics are, simply put, elite.

• Fernando Tatis Jr. In 2023:.386 xwOBA, 12.0% barrel rate, 50.7% hard-hit rate, .295 xBA, .542 xSLG, .463 xwOBAcon
• Fernando Tatis Jr. In 2021: .407 xwOBA, 21.3% barrel rate, 55.6% hard-hit rate, .279 xBA, .615 xSLG, .546 xwOBAcon

Besides the barrel rate, all of Tatis Jr.’s aforementioned 2023 metrics rank in the 92^nd percentile or better this season. Again, you get the picture. He’s very good at hitting a baseball. Toss in a .297 BABIP that’s a bit below his career .331 number and there’s a very real chance he’ll be even better down the stretch.

With eligibility at both shortstop and in the outfield in Yahoo leagues, he can make an impact at a variety of different lineup spots for fantasy managers. He’s a league winner and very much worth pursuing in trades, regardless of what the other manager might want in return. He’s that good.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds

TJ Freidl has enjoyed a breakout season for the Cincinnati Reds this year, batting .279 with a .342 on-base percentage, 11 home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 421 plate appearances, logging a .785 OPS in the process. The stolen bases aren’t particularly surprising, especially not for a player who FanGraphs gave present and future grades of 70 and 70 in terms of his speed when he graduated as a prospect.

The reasonably high batting average isn’t that surprising either, especially considering the 28-year-old boasts a 17.6% whiff rate (89^th percentile), a 16.7% strikeout rate (84^th percentile), and a 24.9% chase rate (72^nd percentile). What is somewhat surprising is the home run production. Friedl has collected the aforementioned 11 home runs on just eight total barrels and a 2.6% barrel rate.

Playing half his games at Great American Ballpark certainly helps in that regard. Case in point, the outfielder has a significantly better ISO (.224) at home than on the road (.102) and while he’s been reasonably productive away from Cincinnati overall, it’s the gap in power production that makes him a bit unplayable in some matchups or rather road games.

TJ Friedl 2023 Splits:

• Home: 6.4 BB%, 19.8 K%, .824 OPS, 106 wRC+, .224 ISO
• Road: 8.1 BB%, 13.7 K%, .731 OPS, 103 wRC+, .102 ISO

With that in mind, it might be time to consider trading Friedl. The Reds play a little under half their remaining games (16 of 34 to be exact) at home and won’t return to Cincinnati until September 1. Elsewhere, Cincinnati’s remaining slate features home series against four of the top 16 teams in the league in FIP, including the two pitching staffs with the lowest FIPs in Seattle (3.74) and Minnesota (3.88).

Joey Meneses, 1B, Washington Nationals

Meneses, like Friedl, has enjoyed a quality season a the plate so far, batting .282 with a .329 on-base percentage and 11 home runs in 516 plate appearances for the Washington Nationals. Like Friedl, there are some encouraging metrics. A 42.3% hard-hit rate for one, just an 18.8% strikeout rate for another. However, some other numbers are a bit more concerning in terms of the first baseman maintaining his current production.

First and foremost, his slightly above league average wOBA (.326) is actually significantly higher than his xwOBA (.291), which, unsurprisingly, is decidedly below league average. The league average numbers for both stats, for context, are .318 and .321. There are also just 11 home runs and a 5.5% barrel rate to contend with, and unlike Friedl, there are none of the fantasy benefits of a very hitter-friendly home venue or the ability to steal bases at a high rate.

That Meneses is locked into a role hitting at the top of the Nationals lineup and is still sporting a rather high batting average should increase your odds of getting a solid return in exchange for the 31-year-old. Both look good on paper, but the rest of the batter’s underlying metrics are a decidedly mixed bag. Now’s the time to make a trade.

Joey Meneses Plate Appearances By Lineup Spot This Season:

• Second: 37
• Third: 240
• Fourth: 227
• Fifth: 8

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