RADIO
Rory McIlroy made more birdies (5) than fairways hit (3) today on route to a bogey-free round of 65. Brian Harman is trying to silence those that doubt his Ryder Cup security off of one major round of golf, as he sits -5 alongside Rory. Scottie Scheffler (T3) has potentially found a putter that can at least gain him a few strokes every now and then, its the disastrously bad rounds that have yet to leave the system. Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark at the top of the board make Olympia Fields feel a little like LACC from a leaderboard perspective, Sahith Theegala, Chris Kirk and Matt Fitzpatrick are also part of the six-way tie for bronze in the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Weather & Tee Times
That should it for all the rain we see this week. The weather doesn't seem to be getting warm enough to dry the course out by the afternoon wave.
Round 2 Strategy
With weather edges not so prevalent in R2 so we could the entire slate is free game from a player pool perspective.
With three rounds still to go in the tournament, taking a gamble on guys further down the leaderboard seems a little less risky, as they know they still have a chance if they play well the next three days. Going off of R2 projected ownership in the model, we are going to find some golfers with lower than usual ownership who are still projected to be top scorers tomorrow.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play (and only): Rory McIlroy's round today lead the field, yet seemed like he hardly got out of 2nd gear. I think now that Rory knows he can navigate this course under par when hitting only 3 fairways, should free him up a little more off the tee. When he has a round where he hits a few more fairways, we can expect even more birdies to roll in. Till then, he is hitting it far enough to still have aggressive approach shots into the greens from the rough. At $12,000 he will be our only $10K+ golfer in our player pool, starting him in at least half my lineups.
Other options (if you don't like Rory): Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay
$9,000+
Favorite play: Tyrrell Hatton has the potential to go low if that putter of his taps into that R2 strokes gained and approach play that has been rather reliable for most of the year. Hatton has the ability to shoot the round of the day and is priced at $9,100 with ownership projected to be sub-10% after a rather lack luster level par round in R1.
Other options: Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Wyndham Clark suits this golf course really well as he is one of the longer drivers of the golf ball who is also impressive with his irons out of the rough. He seems to be playing better golf again and when he plays well he typically does so for the full week. He is also found in the $8k range which is a value play with US Open winning upside.
Other options: Tom Kim
$7,000+
Favorite play: Byeong Hun An shot a level par round of golf today which feels like a performance he can definitely improve on. His length off the tee and skilled around-the-green play are two critical requires to play well here. He gained off the tee today but lost strokes in all other three areas. Expect him to continue gaining off the tee tomorrow, with one or two of those other areas also spiking to get him all the way to the top of round two's showdown slate.
Other options: J.T. Poston, Keegan Bradley.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Denny McCarthy seems to have recovered from some disastrous ball striking lately. He lost off the tee today but gained in all other three departments and if that short game of his fires up, he is capable of using that flat stick to make up a lot of ground on the field any given day.
Other options: Taylor Moore, Adam Schenk, Brendon Todd, Nick Taylor, Lee Hodges, Tom Hoge are all going to find themselves paired side by side in some combination in my Rory lineups so we can chase less risky upside in the more expensive price ranges.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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