Breaking $100: Free PGA Betting Picks - Breaking $100 Golf Best Bets for the 2023 BMW Championship

Patty Ice melted under the pressure of a playoff to lose to Lucas Glover on the 73rd hole of the tournament. Glover just won his second tournament in back-to-back starts and with every putt he sunk from outside 12 feet on the back nine, driving that broomstick dagger deeper into our hearts as Cantlay ultimately could not hold off the veteran who is now making a strong case for the Ryder Cup.

Although we missed out on the Cantlay outright, this article still profited +$37.91 on the week. If you remove the $15 we spent on the outright card, our sustainable less risky bets returned $52.91 which is exactly what they are supposed to do for us weekly. Placement bets and matchups are not the sexiest bet in the world, but they sure help keep the bank roll afloat when outrights are scarce.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Outrights ($15)

We went a little light on the card last week, so we will go back to $15 on the outright market this week with four golfers who have what it takes to win at TPC Southwind. This approach leaves in the 8X return range, but after betting $10 last week, we are averaging around 8X usually.

Rory McIlroy ($15 @ +800 on BetRivers *** DraftKings has a +300 boost that will get this to +950)

It's the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, in Chicago, which I am very excited to be attending this weekend in hopes to watch my first outright winner live. With some soft and wet conditions expecting to keep this brute of a course that played much drier in 2020 when Rahm won, a little more receptive, scores could get a little closer to double digits under par for those long enough to overcome the lack of roll out off the tee. Rory has typically found the most success when in Sport Mode on long, soft conditions that his immense horsepower tends to find the most success in.

The reason for going with Rory over Rahm and Scheffler at similar prices to open Monday morning, was rather simple. Last year the average driving accuracy was below 50%, and with the thick rough gobbling up any birdie opportunities off the tee, you need either immense length or accuracy here. With his immense length and strength to muscle out wedges from the rough, he is starting on first base with his driver that won't have too many penalties off the tee to keep the Rory BMW M5 as the fastest car in the field.

On approach, McIroy sits in 2nd place to Scottie Scheffler over the last 24 rounds, but over the last 12 rounds Rory has averaged +1.45 which leads the field by +0.2 strokes. Remember, the closer to the green you are, the harder it is to gain strokes on approach, as stiffing a six iron to seven feet gains you far more than a nine iron. The best driver on the planet is now gaining the most strokes on approach? Sign me up for that combination.

Rory also sees a jump in his baseline putting on Bentgrass greens, ranking 13th is strokes gained on Bentgrass greens and from 5-15 feet on Bent, which are better than the 38th and 29th rankings he has on all surfaces. If it plays tough this week, Rory is also third in bogey avoidance over the last two dozen rounds, which is a massive upgrade in ABS and safety features to his game that ranks 23rd on the season. He also leads the field in birdie percentage recently, which will allow him to play aggressively this week in conditions that most will still be grinding out pars. Let's rev up that monster and Roar to VICTORY!

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Placings ($10)

Last Week's Placements: +$35

10 bets placed and we landed up basically where we started, losing only -$1.53, with Dylan Wu two shots out of a T40 +200 potentially getting us into the $20 profit range. All good.

• Adam Schenk $5 T10 +1000: $40 (found a +800 ties in full on BetMGM). This bet deserves its own line because it is AWESOME to hit an 8-1 bet in the placement market. I believe that was a bigger number than Rory, Rahm, Scottie outrights??? Lets Go!!!!

• Patrick Cantlay $10 T10 +150: +$15
• Viktor Hovland $10 T10 +190: -$10 (bogey 18 and shot 38 on the back nine to fall out of the top 10)
• Keegan Bradley $5 T10 +500: -$5
• Rickie Fowler $10 T20 +100: -$10
• Tommy Fleetwood $10 T20 +100: +$10

This Week's Placements

The placement market in such a small field is a little weird, so we are going to roll with one placement

• Rory McIlroy T5 +138 at BetMGM (ties paid in full!!!): $10 if he is in the mix on Sunday and doesn't win, at least this will cover our outright investment!

First Round Bets ($50)

We are going to spice up our Thursday with some First Round Bets that involve the leader, Top 5, and R1 score.

First Round Leader $12

• Tommy Fleetwood 25-1: $5
• Byeong Hun An: 45-1: $3
• Adam Schenk: 70-1 (each way 5 places): $2 x 2

First Round Top 5 $8 (bet MGM ties paid in Full)

• Tommy Fleetwood +400: $5
• Byeong Hun An +700: $3

These three guys above are all golfers I am bullish on this week, so we will try and take advantage of them in R1 and hope that Rory can get it done over the course of a full week of sending nukes off the tee.

First Round Overs ($30)

The average scoring conditions here last year were +1.82 over par, which is basically a 72. That is the average, which means that a fair share of golfers would fall on the other side of +2 or 72. We are going to pick on a few golfers who typically struggle in R1, are short off the tee, and not playing that well right now.

• Tom Hoge OVER 72.5 in R1 +100: $6
• Justin Rose OVER 71.5 in R1 -110: $6
• Seamus Power OVER 72.5 in R1: +100 $6
• Kurt Kitayama OVER 72.5 in R1: +100 $6
• Tony Finau OVER 71.5 in R1: -105 $6

Matchups ($20)

Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut (no cut this week).

Last week: $22.91

We swept the Matthews, with Rickie barely beating Fitz, and Sam Ryder dominating a very out of form NeSmith.

• Rickie Fowler $16 -140 over Matthew Fitzpatrick - Fowler has just been playing exceptional golf for a while now, while Fitz has lost strokes off the tee in four consecutive tournaments.
• Sam Ryder $14 -122 over Matthew NeSmith - Ryder has found some form with his irons recently while Matthew NeSmith's putting stats look like an episode of Dexter. A red, bloody, mess.

This week we are going to roll with 

• Viktor Hovland 0ver Xander Schauffele +100 $10: I just like how this course sets up for Viktor , who has been striking the ball really well lately with a rejuvenated short game.
• Keegan Bradley over Si Woo Kim -105 $10: Si Woo Kim is simply lost on the greens right now. He is hemorrhaging strokes putting lately, while Keegan has been playing really well on Bentgrass greens lately.

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Tommy Fleetwood $5 +350 Top 5 (BetMGM ties paid in full!!!)

Tommy Fleetwood has been flirting with a win, but the fact that he that has four top-6 finishes in his last six starts is more than enough to have us going back to this dude on a tough course like this. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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