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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 15-17-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for August 12, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -155
MIL: Brandon Woodruff | CHW: Jesse Scholtens
We'll begin with a showdown in Chicago. The Brewers and White Sox square off with divergent hopes for the remainder of the season. Milwaukee holds a narrow lead in the NL Central, while Chicago is playing for little else than to save face, sitting at 23 games below .500. Game one of the series resulted in a Brewers victory, and I anticipate something similar today.
Brandon Woodruff gets the nod for Milwaukee. Injuries have kept him off the field for most of 2023, but everything about his track record suggests he's still an ace. Woodruff sports a 2.37 xERA through three outings this season, coming off a 3.15 xERA in 2022 and a 3.27 xERA the season before that. He worked up to 85 pitches during his most recent start and figures to handle a normal workload on Saturday.
The White Sox present an ideal matchup for Woodruff, scoring only 4.1 runs per game. Chicago sports an awful 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and a 78 wRC+ since the beginning of July. That includes a .652 OPS, .292 wOBA, and 25% strikeout rate. Jake Burger has departed to the Marlins, and Luis Robert Jr. has been sidelined with a finger injury since Wednesday. This already soft White Sox lineup could be extra shorthanded today.
For Chicago, Jesse Scholtens takes the mound. He's posted a strong 3.89 xERA through 50 innings this season, but that's been primarily out of the bullpen. Scholtens' MLB sample size is small, but he posted a 4.44 ERA through nine starts in Triple-A this season, a 4.10 ERA through 37 appearances in Triple-A in 2022, and a 5.05 ERA through 21 games in Triple-A in 2021. The larger body of work suggests regression.
Looking beyond Scholtens, the White Sox bullpen is weak. They recently traded away key pieces like Joe Kelly and Reynaldo Lopez. Further, the Chicago bullpen carries a subpar 4.56 ERA for the season, ranking among the worst bullpens in baseball. Conversely, the Brewers' bullpen holds a strong 3.84 ERA, ranking top-10 in the league.
The core of this pick comes down to pitching. Brandon Woodruff is better than anything the White Sox have to offer, and the same goes for the Milwaukee offense. I expect the Brewers to win this game decisively.
Pick: Brewers Run Line (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Giants
O/U: 8.0 | Moneyline: SFG (-125)
TEX: Andrew Heaney | SFG: Alex Cobb
Moving on to San Francisco for the next game in the Rangers-Giants series. Texas enters play as winners of nine of their last 10 games, and they sit atop the AL West division. For reasons I can't wrap my head around, they are underdogs in this matchup against San Francisco. The Giants are struggling to hold on to a wild card, having lost five of their last six contests. I'll outline why the Rangers should win this one.
Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Texas. He's having an up-and-down season, featuring a middling 4.59 xERA and 4.43 xFIP through 22 starts. However, he's been on a roll lately, coming off back-to-back scoreless appearances totaling 11 2/3 innings pitched. Heaney isn't the most reliable arm, but he does match up particularly well today.
The Giants score 4.4 runs per game on the season, but most of that damage comes against right-handed pitching. San Francisco carries a horrible 85 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the third-worst mark in the league. That includes similarly awful numbers, like a .672 OPS and .295 wOBA.
On the flip side, Alex Cobb gets the start for San Francisco. His overall numbers are very reminiscent of Heaney's, sporting a 4.56 xERA through 21 outings. That includes a .329 xwOBA, .434 xSLG, .273 xBA, and 44.7% hard-hit rate. There's nothing exceptional about Cobb's arsenal, and he'll have his hands full in this matchup.
The Rangers score 5.7 runs per game on the season, good for second in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves. That includes a blistering 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .795 OPS and .342 wOBA. Texas is without Josh Jung for the time being, but they're a loaded batting order regardless.
The pitching in this game is comparable, but the caliber of offenses is apples to oranges. I can't agree with the Giants being favored in this matchup and will confidently pick the Rangers to win.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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