Model Kombat - The Open Championship (2023) by Spencer Aguiar & Byron Lindeque

July 19, 2023

Spencer and Byron compare notes (and models) to figure out what players possess the largest disparities for them during this week's British Open

At RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, 'Model Kombat' article is a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque as well as finding solace where both their projections are more bullish than DraftKings.

If you would like a more in-depth answer for all players inside this week's field, we hope you consider signing up for our PGA Platinum VIP Package. There, you will find all of our amazing content for the week, including Byron's 'Stat Buffet' and Spencer's 'Rankings Wizard Model.' 

Those are two tools that we are incredibly excited to share with all golf enthusiasts, and the ability to create your own model from their information is something that we believe can generate an edge for anyone trying to dive deeper into these boards. Once again, thank you for considering our product, and we hope you enjoy the article below!

Last Five Winners Of The Open Championship

*The course varies from year to year

Expected Cut-Line

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats From Byron

With so many random DPWT players and stat-less LIV golfers in the field this week, instead of adopting the method of manually updating my rankings to account for the birdie / proximity / putting surface stats, I decided to remain impartial and "dumb down" my model to incorporate the basic key strokes gained stats along with a touch of distance and accuracy off the tee, metrics that are available across all three tours. Sample size issues still exist with LIV but we are rolling with 12 rounds of data for most of the top LIV players. I also used a little more recent form, Open history and Major history to derive my power rankings this week.

Key Stats From Spencer

• 50% Stats/30% Weighted Form, 20% Course History
• Weighted SG: Total (30%)
• Course-Specific Total (Flat) (12.5%)
• SG: Total Wind (7.5%)
• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• BoB + BOG AVD (10%)
• Weighted Scrambling (20%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Players Spencer Is Higher On This Week

Round 1...Fight

Max Homa ($8,400)

Spencer - Something has to give with Max Homa in major championship contests. Some players may need more intestinal fortitude to put the pieces together when it matters most, but I don't take Homa to be one of those options. After a tumultuous start to his major career saw him not land a top 40 in nine tries, Homa has slowly turned it around since 2022 - making five of seven cuts. I gave this answer for both Clark and Homa during the U.S. Open and will here again...they are different players than they were years ago. Counting past struggles does feel counterintuitive.

Byron - Max Homa ranks 92nd in strokes gained in majors. He is the 8th ranked golfer in the world. Something just does not click with Max in the majors. He is the kind of fighter who seemingly knocks himself out while trying to throw a punch at his opponent during major weeks. I love Max in all other 48 weeks of the year, but until he proves that he can perform in the four that matter most, he won't be in my player pool at double digit ownership.

Jason Day ($8,700)

Spencer - The recent data is troubling. There is no way around that. I just want to point everyone in a direction that all of those answers are already being baked into his price for any market. My model thought his two-year baseline should have made him a 60/1 commodity that landed closer to $8,500. The floor is extremely low, but I will take a swing on his upside at five percent ownership and a price tag in the $7,000s. Let's not ignore the ceiling.

Byron - MayDay, MayDay! Has anybody seen his ball striking that won him a tournament only 5 starts ago. Outside of his Byron Nelson victory, Day has not finished better than T39 in any of his half-dozen starts, missing the cut in four of them. The approach play has been abysmal recently, ranking 115th in the field over the last 24 rounds. There were rumors that he had a bone bruise on his hand entering the Memorial, which may be the reason his approach play has shriveled into a dry crusty slither of despair. With his talent he always has a puncher's chance, but even that is potentially limited to only 1 hand right now?

Joaquin Niemann ($7,100)

Spencer - Niemann is a little boom-or-bust for a golfer that I have closer to six percent ownership. If you could promise me he would land closer to the 2% range that Byron has for the week, I would likely find myself 5x the field since I love Niemann's low-flight ability in these blustery conditions. The upside combination does render legitimate top-20 equity for a golfer outside the top 30 on the price board, and the talent seems to have been forgotten after departing for LIV.

Byron - In three majors, Joaquin Niemann has lost at least -1.2 on approach in each start, missing the cut at the PGA, and finishing T32 and T16 in the other two where he had to lean on the putter to gain six total strokes in those 8 rounds. Too much relying on the putter, with the approach play seemingly applying far too much strain on his game at a course with some treacherous bunkers around the greens that will victimize the slew of poor shots he appears to be repping out on approach now a days.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Players Byron Is Higher On This Week

Round 2...Fight

Brooks Koepka ($10,400)

Byron - Considering we have a hefty portion of recent form and major strokes gained as part of the model, Brooks Koepka winning the PGA, finishing 2nd at the Masters, with his worst major finish coming at the US Open (T17), there is no reason to believe we don't see Brooks flirting with the top of the leaderboard this week. All four core SG areas of his game rank inside the top 16 over the last 12 rounds, which screams to me that his game is in cruise control when he tees it up in the majors. He has 90 spots between him and Max Homa in Major strokes gained, which is more than enough to take on that additional $2,000 in salary for one of the game's heavyweights.

Spencer - It wouldn't be a major championship if I didn't take the stand against Brooks Koepka during his eventual victory. I will say that I don't dislike him this week. Koepka's eighth-place ranking in my model for safety is likely even too low because of his big-game hunting mentality, although I will be underweight to him. I prefer Koepka when playing the week before a major championship and getting some of the cobwebs out early. I've always said that is why he has struggled historically in random events on tour when showing up out of nowhere.

Jordan Spieth ($9,700)

Byron - I will get ahead of Spencer on this one and punch myself softly in the face, so that he doesn't do it with the brute force that four missed cuts in the last six starts carries. In the middle of that disaster lies a T5 at the Memorial, which is just enough to lure me towards a golfer who has 5 consecutive top-20s in his last 5 Open Championships. If we add two more years to that track record, he has five top-10s in seven starts, including a win, a 2nd and a T4. The recent form has the consistency of a Taco Bell fart, but the course history puts up a mighty fine defense against any argument you throw at him, of which, there are many. Be free, you brilliant English engulfing enigma!

Spencer - If we are talking purely leverage here, the price tag is too high and has helped to generate a sub-10 percent version of Spieth. It is hard to take a stand against that mentality when most seem to be fading, although I would rather move up a few hundred dollars to Cantlay and stomach the 3-5% increase in ownership.

Adam Schenk ($7,200)

Byron - Adam Schenk is one of 9 golfers who are averaging over a stroke per round on approach over the last 24. Five of them are $10,400+ with two of the sub $10k golfers being Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama, two prolific iron players that are $9,600 and $8,900 respectively. Adam Schenk's irons are hanging out with these guys but costs you only $7,200 to roster in your lineups. If all 3 of the other areas of his game were outside the top 100, he would still be appealing with that kind of approach play, but they are not. He packs a one-two punch with his irons and putter, with the flat stick ranking 26th over the same time frame. He has four top-7 finishes in his last six starts, which is more than enough upside to go to him at this price.

Spencer - The metrics look fine for Adam Schenk when we ignore the wind play. I have taken a very similar sentiment across the board that ownership seems to be condensed in all Bryon's plays, which always equates to interesting leverage, but I'd rather roster Chris Kirk or Sepp Straka when directly comparing.

Players Both Byron and Spencer Are High On

Round 3...Hug It Out

Denny McCarthy ($7,300)

Byron - Denny makes his first Open Championship appearance this year because he has played some of the most consistent golf of anybody in the $7k range. Dating back to February, McCarthy has missed only three cuts in 14 starts and has not finished worst than T29 in any event he has made the cut in. He has four top-10 finishes in his last 7 starts in a schedule drenched with elevated events and majors. McCarthy's success not only lies with a putter that has gained the 5th most strokes this season, but his iron play ranks 26th over the last two dozen rounds, and is actually gaining strokes on approach for the first time in his career. The flood gates may not open for a win in Liverpool, but you would be a Liverfool if you left this kind of consistency and safety out of your lineups at this price.

Spencer - Lower-priced $7,000 chalk is typically bad...However, I tend to believe McCarthy is the epitome of good chalk. McCarthy ranks first in my model for weighted scrambling, and his current form is trending toward a breakthrough win.

Chris Kirk ($7,000)

Byron - Chris Kirk missed three consecutive cuts with the streak ending two starts ago, finishing T21 and T14 since. Prior to that, Kirk had only missed two cuts all year long, going on a a steady run that included a win at the Honda and top-30s at the Masters and PGA Championship. He appears to be out the funk he was in not so long ago and at $7,000 he provides incredible safety with the potential to improve on his T5 at the PGA Championship last year. Even though he missed the cut at the US Open, his iron play has gained a stroke per round in his last 10, which would suggest that we are simply some short-game magic away from a major top-10 at a dollar more than the $6k range. #Value

Spencer - Outside of Denny McCarthy, I would say Chris Kirk is my favorite option in this bottom-end of the $7,000 range. The recent form has produced back-to-back made cuts, and his 15th-place grade for expected strokes gained total is a massive boost for his potential.

Tom Hoge ($6,400)

Byron - Spencer and I have him ranked exactly the same, and Folks, if you remove the disaster that was R1 at the Rocket Mortgage where he lost -4 strokes putting, Hoge has gained an average of +0.9 putting in the other 8 most recent rounds. He is also one of the most talented iron players in the field, ranking 5th in the field for the season (excluding LIV). The putter has been a dumpster of disaster, but now that he is gaining on the greens again, it may be time to pounce of an elite iron player at course that will require precise approach play into tricky greens. He is low owned and a VERY affordable $6,400.

Spencer - My model viewed Tom Hoge as a fringe cut-maker that would possess a higher ceiling than his floor. We see that with his weighted proximity landing 19th for this course, which is surprisingly a low total because I added in some of the recent form of his to regress his projection. I am not sure if he is going to make the weekend, but let's keep an eye out for him because there is upside at the price.

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