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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 11-6-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for June 10, 2023!
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O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -120
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | CHW: Michael Kopech
We'll begin with an early matchup between the Marlins and White Sox. Game one of the series resulted in a 2-1 victory for the White Sox, but I expect more fireworks today. Sandy Alcantara has not looked like himself in 2023, while Michael Kopech's production has been wildly inconsistent. There's a lot of opportunity for offense in this one.
Sandy Alcantara has been unable to replicate his NL Cy Young campaign from last season. He carries a 5.07 ERA through 12 starts. Alcantara's advanced stats suggest positive regression incoming, but he's still left with a mediocre 4.02 xERA and 4.22 xFIP. He's allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five outings and has only allowed fewer than two earned runs once all season.
The White Sox have been a middling offense this season, scoring 4.2 runs per game. They are trending in the right direction lately, sporting a .808 OPS against right-handed pitching since the beginning of May. That includes a .180 ISO and 124 wRC+. Eloy Jimenez is likely out of the lineup Saturday, though they've got plenty of offense these days between Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Jake Burger.
On the flip side, Michael Kopech takes the mound for the White Sox. He's managed a couple of strong performances this season, but the results have been all over the place. Overall, Kopech carries a 5.03 xERA, 4.53 xFIP, including a .456 xSLG, 43.5% hard-hit rate, 90.4 MPH average exit velocity, .347 xwOBA, and 16.5% barrel rate. He's very hittable, and I expect the Marlins to take advantage.
The Marlins bring another middling offense, scoring four runs per game. Though their offense feels underrated these days. Luis Arraez enters the day hitting .400, while Jorge Soler ranks among the league's best home run hitters, and additional contributions from Jesus Sanches and Brian De La Cruz, and more round out the powerful lineup. Since the beginning of May, Miami is owns a .808 OPS against right-handed pitching, including a ,164 ISO and 120 wRC+.
Between a pair of very shaky pitching options and two offenses that are trending upward, I'm confident this game will surpass the eight-run total. Either by one or both teams popping off offensively, the Marlins and White Sox are poised to put up some numbers today.
Pick: Over 8.0 Total Runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -165
KC: Brady Singer | BAL: Cole Irvin
Moving on to game two of the Royals-Orioles series. The first game resulted in a 3-2 victory for the Orioles, and again I'm expecting more offense in this matchup. This square-off features a particularly weak pitching matchup between Cole Irvin and an underwhelming Brady Singer.
Brady Singer sports a 6.03 xERA through 12 starts. That includes a 4,43 xFIP and some truly awful batted-ball metrics, like a 55.8% hard-hit rate, 92.7 MPH average exit velocity, .504 xSLG, .292 xBA, and 10.5% barrel rate. He's coming off his best start of the year, but Singer has been touched up by opposing offenses all season long. Even looking beyond Singer, the Royals' bullpen carries a 4.86 ERA, the second-worst in the majors. Kansas City pitching looks particularly vulnerable.
The Orioles offense has faltered somewhat recently, but overall they remain one of the league's more lethal lineups. Baltimore scores 4.9 runs per game behind juggernaut names like Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and more. The Orioles are fully capable of getting the best of Brady Singer, and I expect as much in this spot.
Cole Irvin takes the mound for the Orioles, having just been recalled from Triple-A. He posted an 8.30 xERA and 5.67 xFIP through four appearances earlier this season, in addition to a 4.40 xERA in 2022 and a 4.92 xERA in 2021. Irvin's track record is long enough to understand his vulnerability. The Royals aren't the scariest of offenses, but in this matchup, they should be able to plate some runs.
The pitching in this game is suspect, to say the least, and that's where my confidence lies. Either through one team's offensive explosion or the other's, I anticipate this game reaching double digits.
Pick: Over 9.0 Total Runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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