Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report - MLB Rookie Risers and Fallers for Week 6

Welcome to this year's iteration of RotoBaller’s Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball! Here I discuss some recently promoted MLB prospects and rookies, making note of what I think their upside could be for fantasy baseball managers, and whether they are potential risers or fallers.

We have already seen a huge number of high-impact rookies make their MLB debut already in 2023. This week, I'll look at four rookies that will work (or already have worked) their way into fantasy relevance. I will use industry scouting reports, analytics, and RotoBaller’s premium projections to predict what each recently called-up player could do if given a continued opportunity in 2023.

Here are your recently promoted prospects for Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season.

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Brett Baty, New York Mets

41% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: Despite a very impressive 2023 spring training and a short stint in the majors at the end of the 2022 season, New York Mets third baseman Brett Baty surprisingly began the 2023 campaign with Triple-A Syracuse. His relegation to Syracuse did not last long.

In nine games at Triple-A, Baty belted five homers with 15 RBI, slashing .400/.500/.886 over 35 at-bats. The Mets' early-season offensive struggles, and particularly those of Eduardo Escobar, forced their hand to call up Baty. In the 10 games since his promotion, Baty has slashed .333/.394/.467 to go with one homer, three RBI, and one double.

Skill: Baty is a 6’3” left-handed hitter who was drafted in the first round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Mets as the twelfth overall pick. Per MLB Pipeline, Baty is the Mets’ second-ranked prospect and 19^th overall-ranked prospect in MLB.

Over four minor league seasons and five levels, Baty owns a career slash of .293/.394/.508 with 43 HR and 164 RBI in 917 AB. Although Baty posted a subpar .184/.244/.342 slash line with the Mets over 11 games (38 AB) in 2022, it appears his eventual adjustment to MLB pitching has begun.

Projection: There is nothing left for Baty to prove in the minor leagues, despite the fact he has only spent 15 games at Triple-A over the past two seasons. That, combined with the continued offensive struggles the Mets have had, means Baty is up in the majors to stay. Although manager Buck Showalter places high stock in defense (and Baty has been challenged defensively in the past), Baty is also developing in the field.

Baty should remain as the Mets' starting third baseman for the foreseeable future (occasionally sitting against lefties because...Buck Showalter) batting in the latter part of their lineup. As a result, Baty is currently and woefully under-rostered (at least in Yahoo leagues). In redraft leagues where he is available, managers need to make Baty a top waiver/FAAB priority.

Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets

12% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: 21-year-old right-handed New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez also began the 2023 campaign with Triple-A Syracuse after a short stint in the majors in 2022. In four games and 16 at-bats in Triple-A, Alvarez belted two homers and slashed .250/.368/.688 before he was promoted due to an injury to catcher Omar Narvaez (calf).

Since arriving in the majors, Alvarez has struggled at the plate. He is batting .194/.216/.278 over 36 AB (12 games) and has one home run. In 2022, Alvarez also struggled with the Mets, slashing just .167/.286/.500 with one homer over 12 AB (five games).

Skill: Alvarez is the top-ranked prospect in all of MLB as per MLB Pipeline. Despite his struggles so far with the Mets, his offensive capability is unquestioned. Over four seasons in the minors (and five levels), Alvarez owns a career .273/.384/.529 slash line (911 AB) to go with 60 HR and 178 RBI.

He is a stocky 5’10” right-handed bat who possesses massive power and plus-plus average and exit velocity ability. He will hit in the majors once he adapts to MLB pitching. The question is not if, but when. Patience my friends. Patience.

Projection:  Narváez is unlikely to return from the IL before June, affording Alvarez time to adjust to MLB pitching. If he can begin to hit with consistency, he may force the Mets' hand to keep him in the majors. The other issue is his defense. If he can reduce front-office speculation that he needs more seasoning in the minors to strengthen his defense between now and Narváez’s return, this could go a long way in keeping Alvarez with the Mets.

These are two big questions. Alvarez should be rostered in more than just 12% of leagues. However, manager Buck Showalter may wish to go back to a Narváez/Tomas Nido timeshare, sending Alvarez back to Syracuse where he can get regular at-bats. Managers in redraft formats should scoop up Alvarez but manage expectations once the calendar flips to June if he continues to struggle at the plate or in the field.

Mason Miller, Oakland A’s

28% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: Prior to 2023, Oakland A’s third-ranked prospect Mason Miller had been limited to just 20 innings pitched in the minors over two seasons due to injuries, including a right shoulder scapula strain. Miller began the 2023 campaign with Double-A Midland where he pitched in one game, striking out eight batters over 3 2/3 IP.

He was promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he pitched in only one game, striking out 11 over five innings pitched. Due to Oakland’s rotation struggles, Miller was surprisingly called up to the majors on April 19. In two starts since his promotion, Miller has posted a 6.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an 11:2 K:BB ratio in 8 2/3 IP. Miller's fastball averaged 100 mph in his first start, topping out at 103 mph.

Skill: Miller was drafted in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft straight out of Gardner-Webb University. He has a total of 28 2/3 IP over four minor league levels to his credit (2.83 ERA and 0.70 WHIP). As a result, there is not much history to work off of in terms of projecting success at the MLB level (to the extent MiLB success translates).

He possesses a plus fastball that, as mentioned, can hit 100 mph, to go with a plus slider. He is a tall, lanky righty (6’5” and 200 lbs) with solid control and immense strikeout potential. He owns a 53:8 K:BB ratio over those career 28 2/3 IP in the minors.

Projection: As my other Rotoballer colleagues have written about Miller, he is a huge lottery ticket for redraft managers in 2023. While it is questionable whether Miller will remain with the big league club, if he remains he can certainly help managers with strikeouts and ratios. Nonetheless, given his limited career MiLB IP, he will be subject to an innings limit.

So, even if successful at the MLB level, managers should anticipate that the A’s will either skip starts or shut him down early as the season continues. Miller should be on the radar of any manager needing pitching help in those leagues where he is available. He, of course, should be rostered in any legitimate dynasty league by now.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

49% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation:  The season-ending injury to Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs (elbow), opened the door for Rays right-handed starting pitching prospect Taj Bradley to make his major league debut on April 12. In three starts with the Rays, Bradley was as advertised.

He impressively posted a 3.52 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and struck out 23 against just two walks in 15 1/3 IP. Bradley was rewarded for this impressive debut with....a return to Triple-A Durham this past week. The main reason the Rays made this surprising move was to transition him from the six-day starting schedule he has been on in the minor leagues to a five-day schedule seen in MLB.

Skill:  Following a 2021 breakout, the 21-year-old continued to impress in 2022. Over 28 minor league starts in 2022, including 12 at Triple-A, Bradley posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts against just 33 walks in 133 1/3 innings pitched. Over 73 career minor league appearances (70 starts) coming into 2023, Bradley owned a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

The top Rays prospect and 20th-ranked MLB prospect (per MLB Pipeline) projects as a number one starting pitcher who offers an overpowering four-seam fastball that sits between 94-96 mph. He also throws a plus mid-80s slider that Bradley refers to as a cutter.

Projection: Bradley will be back with the Rays sooner than later. His impressive performance over his first three MLB starts exemplifies the potential for Bradley to be a fantasy contributor in 2023. He is currently rostered in only 49% of Yahoo leagues.

This number should be much higher. Redraft managers should stash Bradley, who could slot in as a fantasy ace by early June once he is acclimated to a five-day rotation schedule at Triple-A Durham.

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