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Going into the 2022 season, Cooper Kupp was the consensus WR1 following an amazing 2021 campaign. In many 2022 drafts, Justin Jefferson was the second wide receiver off of draft boards following Kupp. It turns out that Jefferson was the better pick as he is fresh off turning in a career year for the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 while Kupp injured his ankle during Week 10 of 2022 and missed the rest of the season.
While the 2022 fantasy season has been over for a couple of weeks now, it is never too early to begin preparing for 2023 fantasy drafts. In a situation similar to where Kupp was a year ago from now, Jefferson is certainly going to be the first receiver off of draft boards this summer.
Does Jefferson possess enough upside to warrant drafting him as the first pick in 2023 or has he already reached his ceiling? Let's examine this further.
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How Did Justin Jefferson Perform in Fantasy Football This Season?
Jefferson played in all 17 of his team's games in 2022. The 23-year-old wideout has been exceptionally durable during his three-year NFL career, having played in all 50 of 50 possible games.
The former LSU standout caught 128 of 184 targets for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. All of those numbers established career highs, except in the touchdown department when he caught 10 in 2021. His 1,809 receiving yards were the sixth-most in a single season in NFL history.
Justin Jefferson finished with the SIXTH-MOST receiving yards in a season in #NFL history. 🙌#SKOL pic.twitter.com/4AJH51TsYB
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 10, 2023
The Vikings fired long-time head coach Mike Zimmer in the 2022 offseason and turned to Kevin O'Connell at the helm. O'Connell brought with him a pass-first offensive mindset, which helped propel Jefferson to his eye-popping numbers this season. O'Connell will be back in 2023 after a successful first season in Minnesota, giving Jefferson another year to get comfortable in his offense.
Is Justin Jefferson The No. 1 Pick For 2023 Fantasy Football?
Of course, a lot can change in the NFL landscape over the next seven months, but Jefferson is as safe of a No. 1 fantasy pick as one can ask for. In PPR leagues in 2022, Jefferson was the ultimate week-winner, posting an insane seven games with at least 30 fantasy points.
He has reached at least 1,400 receiving yards in each of his three NFL seasons while last season he led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving yards per game. While the running back position continues to be an issue when it comes to injuries, Jefferson has never missed a game in his career. As you can see below, his career is off to an elite start.
Most Receiving Yards Through Three NFL Seasons:
1.Justin Jefferson - 4,825
2.Randy Moss - 4,163
3. Odell Beckham - 4,122
4. A.J. Green - 3,833
5. Michael Thomas - 3,787
6. Torry Holt - 3,786
7. Mike Evans - 3,578
8. Jerry Rice - 3,575— Russell Clay (@RussellJClay) January 10, 2023
That alone puts Jefferson in excellent company and places him squarely in the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick in drafts. Of course, fantasy gamers who use their first pick on Jefferson will have to commit to finding a useful running back somewhere along the way after passing up on star runners such as Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley. But the consistent excellence that Jefferson delivers on a weekly basis will more than offset passing up on a first-round RB.
If you think Jefferson reached his ceiling last season, keep in mind that he only caught eight touchdowns in 2022. That leaves some room for positive regression in that category as he should have caught double-digit scores with his insane target share.
The cliche goes that you can't win your league with your first-round pick but you can certainly lose it. Jefferson has the perfect blend of a high floor and insane upside, making him a no-brainer selection at the top of fantasy drafts in 2023.
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