Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, And Locks - Orlando Magic 2022 Outlook

October 12, 2022

Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Max Kulish identifies one player for each category on the Orlando Magic.

Welcome to a new series that we are debuting here at RotoBaller in order to start getting you ready for the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season!

If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on several players from each team that we see as values for the upcoming season or that are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.

In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Orlando Magic based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2022-2023 season. Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@Maxadelphia) for more fantasy basketball insight (amongst other things).

Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Paolo Banchero

The #1 pick enters the NBA with a clear starting role and no pressure to perform; a great recipe for fantasy success.

Banchero impressed in his two-game Summer League stint before being shut down for precautionary reasons after a minor knee tweak, and in his first preseason game, he had the honor of being guarded by the Grizzlies' Dillon Brooks, who made 1st Team All-Defense last season. However, he's shown some flashes that he's ready for the NBA (at least offensively).

Paolo getting to the rack 💪

Live Now on the NBA App
📲 https://t.co/rtPKXgcMWx pic.twitter.com/Fs9IjD0JLN

— NBA (@NBA) October 7, 2022

He's also played pretty well this preseason and shown that he can play both the three and the four, giving the Magic some flexibility if they want to go with a big or small lineup. He should get all the minutes he can handle and his versatility and ability to contribute in multiple categories makes him a very appealing mid-to-late-round target.

Fantasy Basketball Bust: Jalen Suggs

Regardless of the knee injury he sustained yesterday, I do not like the fantasy outlook for Suggs at the moment. He plays in an incredibly crowded Orlando backcourt as Cole Anthony isn't going anywhere and Markelle Fultz should push for more minutes too as he's finally healthy.

Suggs's game severely lacks efficiency (36.1% from the field, and a putrid 21.4% from 3). And without the minutes to pile up counting stats, he's not likely to help your fantasy team all that much.

Orlando Magic G Jalen Suggs has sustained a left knee capsule sprain and bone bruise, sources tell ESPN. His timeline on a return will depend on response to treatment, but there’s relief it wasn’t a more serious injury.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 8, 2022

Personally, I'm looking to avoid this backcourt as a whole. Suggs' injury isn't supposed to be anything major, but even if he does slip in overall rankings, I don't think any other player in that situation would pique my interest. Draft Magic guards at your own risk.

Fantasy Basketball Lock: Franz Wagner

After an impressive showing in EuroBasket 2022, where he helped lead Germany to a third-place finish, the Wagner hype train is full steam ahead.

Franz Wagner has ended Giannis’ euro run for the summer pic.twitter.com/L9VkMWdONi

— Be Magic Or Be Gone!  (@BeORLMagic) September 13, 2022

After an All-Rookie season to start his NBA career, Wagner looks poised to be the next international breakout player in the NBA. Wagner had a very respectable 46.8/34.6/86.6% shooting splits in his rookie year but shot a blistering 45% from 3 during EuroBasket, and did so while taking 1.2 more attempts per game compared to his year with the Magic.

Now, granted he's in much more of a clear alpha role with the German national team, that sort of improvement still can't be ignored. I expect Wagner to get some love for Most Improved Player, and there's a chance he could win it (although I imagine it will go to someone who breaks out on a more successful team).

Conclusion

The Magic will again be one of the worst teams in the East/the entire league. There will be nights where they get killed, and there will be nights where this underrated young core shows they're capable of hanging with the big dogs.

The good news is that regardless of the ups and downs, this team is young and the Magic coaching staff & front office has no choice but to play them. To reiterate, I have no interest whatsoever in the Magic backcourt, but the frontcourt options definitely intrigue me. I like what the Magic are building, and Banchero is my pick for Rookie of the Year (very bold, I know).

Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!

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