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It's Monday, August 1st, 2022, the start of a new month, a new week, and just a day before the MLB trade deadline happens! There are 10 games being played after 6:40 pm Eastern tonight with plenty of directions to go as far as betting.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYY -178
SEA: Marco Gonzales| NYY: Domingo German
Monday kicks off a big series for the Seattle Mariners as they travel to the Bronx to take on the Yankees. Seattle has Marco Gonzales going on the mound with his 5.16 SIERA, 4.95 xFIP, and 5.0% K-BB% pitching to the best offense in baseball. Do not be fooled by Gonzales' 3.66 ERA; there is some regression heading his way.
On the other side is Domingo German. German has a 4.21 SIERA, 5.05 xFIP, and a 15.4% K-BB%. German is also allowing 3.52 HR/9 and has an 8.22 ERA. He has started just two games this season and has gone for 7.2 innings so far as well.
If you compare the xFIP of both pitchers, this matchup isn't as lopsided as it may appear. Julio Rodriguez appears to be hurt, so that does give a blow to Seattle's offense. They only put up two runs against Jake Odorizzi yesterday for example.
As far as bullpens go, the Yankees also have the edge, with a 2.86 ERA (second lowest) and a 3.60 xFIP (third-best in the league). Seattle has a 3.62 bullpen ERA (10th best) and their xFIP is 3.82 which is 12th best in the league.
Because of the Yankees' advantages in hitting and bullpen, I like them to win this game. I am interested in a small bet on the F5 Moneyline because German has his issues as well. Once the game turns over to the bullpen, the Yankees have a larger advantage than at the beginning of the game.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline F5 (+188), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHW -165
KC: Brad Keller| CHW: Michael Kopech
I expect this game to have a good chance of being the highest-scoring game on the slate. Michael Kopech has a 3.16 ERA but a 4.97 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA, and 9.0% K-BB%. He is not pitching as well as his ERA indicates. These are the dog days of summer, it's getting hot out there, and no pitcher is as safe as they were early in the year.
Brad Keller has a 4.18 ERA, 4.33 xFIP, and a 4.63 SIERA with a 7.2% K-BB%. As strange as it may sound, Brad Keller actually has the edge on Kopech outside of actual ERA. Whenever that's the case, it should be wheels up for the opposing offenses!
While the White Sox have been pretty disappointing offensively this season, in the past month they have the 6th most runs scored. Their OBP is 12th-best in that span while their ISO was just 24th though. Kansas City in that same span is 18th in runs scored, 9th in OBP, and their ISO is 26th.
The bullpens are where Chicago has a larger advantage. They are in the bottom third of the league in both ERA and xFIP while Kansas City is the second worst in both metrics for their bullpen.
Given the teams being pretty close offensively as of the past month and the starting pitchers being even (but pretty bad), I like taking the over 8.5 runs and also betting the Royals in the first five innings Moneyline.
Pick: Royals Moneyline F5 (+155), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8.5 Runs (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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