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Do you like betting on baseball? Well, this is the place for ALL of my favorite MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 28th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Zack Wheeler o6.5K vs. PIT (+105 DK)
Wheeler opened at 5.5 last night but this line moved quickly. I’m still on him for 7, though, here against the strikeout-happy Pirates. His strikeouts are down lately, but he also had a bunch of tough match-ups in a row.
Shohei Ohtani o8.5K vs. TEX (+100 DK)
I am committed to riding Ohtani until the wheels fall off. The numbers back it, too, which is the craziest part. We need nine strikeouts here against the Rangers, and while he had only 5 and 7 in two earlier meetings, he’s just on another plane of existence right now.
MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Prop Bets
Steven Kwan o1.5 TB (+110 DK)
Kwan has been a real catalyst for this Cleveland offense since moving back into the leadoff role. Crawford has some major splits with lefties hitting him significantly better. We probably get 5 PAs for Kwan today, and we just need a double or two singles from the contact hitter.
Javier Baez o1.5 TB (+115)
Baez has come on for Detroit over the last month after struggling earlier in the year. He has solid numbers against lefties and his profile matches up nicely with Kikuchi and his primary pitches.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
Cleveland ML (-120 DK)
The Guardians are trying to take three out of four from Boston, who now find themselves in last place in the AL East. The pitching match-up favors Cleveland a bit, as Triston McKenzie has been quite solid this year and the Red Sox are relying on rookie Kutter Crawford.
Seattle ML (+120 DK)
This is another spot where I think the road team has a starting pitching advantage. Logan Gilbert is pretty darn good and pitched well against Houston last time. Seattle just couldn’t get him the run support. Urquidy is a pitcher for Houston who I always view as a bit overrated and Houston, in general, has been scuffling of late.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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