RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, March 17th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/17/22
We have a ten-game slate tonight after we played an 11 game slate last night. We have six games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern one at 8:00 pm Eastern and 9:00 pm Eastern, then one at 10:00 pm Eastern and one at 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky- DK $7.8K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Sergei Bobrovsky is priced down on DraftKings and slightly priced down on FanDuel tonight and I am not exactly sure why. For him, he is 30-6-3 with two shutouts, a 2.57 GAA, and a.917 SV%. A pretty good season. Florida is favored in this game too. He might allow a couple of goals, but he should get plenty of saves and a win to help offset that. The goalie position is a very high variance position. I prefer not to spend way up if I do not have to.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Oettinger (DK $8.4K || FD $7.6K), Saros (DK $8.1K || FD $8.4K), Petersen (DK $8.0K || FD $7.2K), Shersterkin (DK $7.9K || FD $8.6K), Husso (DK $7.5K || FD $7.7K - GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Leon Draisaitl - DK $8.5K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Leon Draisaitl doesn't get written up much from me (I often recommend him down below) because he is so overshadowed by Connor McDavid. On FanDuel they are priced closely but on DraftKings, there is a bit of a price break. These two players score virtually the same number of fantasy points per game (McDavid is 0.8 more on DraftKings and 1.15 more on FanDuel). DRaisaitl is on the second line and first power play. He has 83 points (39 goals, 44 assists) in 60 games played. They are going against Buffalo who they should blow out. With Auston Matthews out and McDavid $700 more on DraftKings, Draisaitl is my top spend-up option at Center tonight. Of course, if you have the extra money, you can always go to McDavid, but you don't have to tonight I do not think.
J.T Miller- DK $6.9K || FD $8.6K - DraftKings only, he is a winger on FanDuel.
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
This will be more of a DraftKings focused analysis since he is a center there, but some stats are helpful to consider him at winger. Miller has 73 points (24 goals, 49 assists) in 59 games played. He averages 2.52 shots on goal per game. His being more than a point-per-game player provides him a nice floor, especially when a majority of the scoring is coming from assists. He has also been shooting more; he has had 15 shots on goal in his last two games. Vancouver is implied for 3.9 goals tonight; there is a good chance Miller is in on some scoring.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.3K), Aho (DK $7.6K || FD $8.6K), Crosby (DK $7.0K || FD $8.7K), Hintz (DK $6.1K || FD $6.5K), Kuznetsov (DK $5.6K || FD $7.3K), Horvat (DK $5.1K || FD $6.8K), Seguin (DK $4.3K || FD $5.4K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Jason Robertson - DK $6.8K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Pretty simple strategy today at winger. Get a couple that are going against some bad teams. Fortunately, two of my favorites are priced down, especially on DraftKings. Jason Robertson is first. The Stars are implied for 3.6 goals. Robertson has 55 points (30 goals, 25 assists) in 50 games played. He averages 3.04 shots on goal per game. There's not a lot of deep analysis here except for this is taking the guy on the first line that averages the most shots per game, going against one of the worst defenses and goaltenders in the league, and we do not have to pay $9K for him. Pavelski would be an OK pivot if you need some salary savings, especially on FanDuel.
Matt Duchene- DK $6.1K|| FD $7.1K
Opponent -Philadelphia Flyers
Matt Duchene is going to be a similar analysis to Robertson. The Predators are going against a bad defense and are implied for 3.5 goals tonight. While Forsberg averages more shots on goal per game than Duchene, the salary savings we get from rostering Duchene makes him a slightly better play tonight. If you can afford Forsberg, by all means, get Forsberg. Duchene is not shabby in his own right: 60 points (31 goals, 29 assists) in 56 games played while averaging 2.86 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.4K || FD $9.9K), Forsberg (DK $7.4K || FD $8.1K), Huberdeau (DK $7.3K || FD $8.8K), Kane (DK $6.9K || FD $7.1K), Pavelski (DK $6.0K || FD $7.5K), Hyman (DK $5.3K || FD $6.4K), Caufield (DK $4.7K || FD $5.8K),
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
John Carlson - DK $6.5K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
If money is no issue, Roman Josi and Zach Werenski would be the top choices for me tonight. But money is an issue, as they are getting priced up. Josi, I like for power-play stacks in tournaments but he costs too much as a one-off. So tonight, my "high-priced" defenseman that I like is John Carlson. He is a little overpriced but not as much as the other guys. He has 49 points (10 goals, 39 assists) in 57 games played. He averages 2.39 shots on goal per game. Washington is implied for four goals and Columbus is coming off of a back-to-back. I like Carlson's chances to score a point (most likely an assist) tonight.
Quinn Hughes- DK $5.4K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Quinn Hughes is not a guy we write up in this section as much, but he is always a value player I consider as a one-off and I include him in Vancouver power-play stacks. Hughes has scored 49 points (5 goals, 44 assists) in 57 games played. He only averages two shots on goal per game. He is most likely to get an assist and given his price range, an assist with a couple of shots on goal isn't bad. He only hits his ceiling when he scores a goal, but as you can see... that's not often. He is definitely more of a floor player for me in cash, and someone that goes well as part of a stack since he gets so many assists.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.2K || FD $7.1K - GPP), Werenski (DK $6.9K || FD $6.5K), Pietrangelo (DK $6.1K || FD $6.4K), Seider (DK $5.6K || FD $6.1K), Faulk (DK $4.6K || FD $4.9K), Cole (DK $2.5K || FD $3.7K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How to attack this slate is going to depend on what type of contest you are playing in. Edmonton (4.1 goals implied) and Washington (4.0 goals implied) should be the most popular teams. If they aren't, I would stack whichever is less popular (likely Washington).
Other teams with high implied totals are: Vancouver (3.9), Florida (3.7), Dallas (3.6), and Nashville (3.5).
The teams with the lowest implied totals are: San Jose (2.5), Montreal (2.6), Buffalo (2.6), and the New York Islanders (2.6).
Here are my favorite stacks tonight
Dallas 1/PP 1: Montreal has the No. 29 penalty kill (73.7%) while Dallas has the No. 9 power play (23.8%). I am hoping Dallas gets overlooked a little bit by some of the other teams on the slate.
Vancouver PP 1: Vancouver has the No. 14 power play (21.5%) but Detroit has the No. 31 penalty kill (72.8%). Another thing I like about this stack is that it isn't fully correlated to either of the lines, so it is a way to get different if Vancouver is coming in popular.
Nashville 1/PP1: I can go either way here with them. The Power Play is going to get pretty expensive with Josi at 8.2K on DraftKings. It might be a way to get exposure to their 3.6 implied goals at lower ownership.
San Jose PP 1: This one is risky. Really risky. Would only reserve for a large field GPP where maybe you are playing multiple lineups and anything outside of 1st place you are OK with. The Kings have a bad penalty kill (No. 27) and San Jose's power play has been playing better as of late.
Washington 1: Implied for four goals, likely to be really chalky but if not, I would fire away here.
Florida 2: It is their best even-strength line, they are implied for 3.7 goals, and you get two of three players on the Power Play.
Florida 3: If you want to get onto Florida in a sneaky way, this third line has been pretty productive. Always a risk to stack a third line, especially on a large slate, could blow up your lineup. Only reserve for large-field tournaments.
Los Angeles 2: I am always considering this line when looking for a filler stack and the Kings are on the slate. Only implied for 3.1 goals, many people won't be on this, but Reimer is prone to blow-ups.
