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Expert Monday Night Football betting predictions, best MNF prop bets, and odds analysis for Week 6. Free Monday Night Football picks and player props for tonight's game including our top pick for an anytime touchdown.
Hello everybody, and welcome to Week 6's edition of Monday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season is now in full swing, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content in the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.
This weekly article will focus on the Monday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically offer at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props. Although this article will be published each week on Monday mornings, you can always feel free to check out our Discord Channel to see plays posted throughout the week.
This week's matchups feature the Buffalo Bills traveling to Atlanta to take on the Falcons and the Chicago Bears at the Washington Commanders. Both of these games should provide plenty of goodies for us to try and take advantage of. All of these teams have soft spots in their defense that we can look to exploit as well. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 6 of Monday Night Football!
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Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Odds
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Bills -4.5
Total: 49.5
In our first matchup of the evening, the 4-1 Buffalo Bills will take on the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons. While the Bills are coming off a Week 5 loss at home to the New England Patriots, the Falcons were on a bye week and are looking to build momentum off their Week 4 win at home against the Washington Commanders.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
Spread: Commanders -4.5
Total: 49.5
In our second matchup on Monday Night Football, the 2-2 Chicago Bears will take on the 3-2 Washington Commanders. The Bears are coming off a bye week after pulling off a thrilling 25-24 win at the Raiders in Week 4, while the Commanders are coming off a firm 27-10 victory at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.
Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Picks
For tonight's spread and/or total pick, we are going to look at the second Monday night game between the Bears and Commanders, as I think this is a tale of two teams, possibly headed in quite different directions. While both teams are coming off big wins in their most recent games, the Bears struggled heavily against a porous Raiders team, while the Commanders throttled the Chargers in their building.
When we break these two teams down, the first thing that stands out is just how bad the Bears' run defense has been thus far in 2025. While at first glance, it might look as though they have been decent, giving up the seventh-fewest rushing yards to the running back position, they have been fortunate enough to have their bye baked into these numbers.
A deeper look tells us that they have allowed a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry to the position.
On the other side of the coin, the Commanders have, in fact, been stout against the run. Overall, they have allowed a total of just 80 rushing yards per game to the position and have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry. This is solid work by the Commanders, and they should be able to provide plenty of resistance to a Bears' offense that has averaged just 102 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth-worst in the league.
Washington's offense, meanwhile, has averaged over 156 rushing yards per game, which ranks them the best in the league. So, we have one of the worst run defenses in the league going up against the best rush offense in the league. Washington should be able to move the ball at will with Jayden Daniels and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, which should make for a long day for this Bears defense.
Washington does have some banged-up wide receivers, with Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown being ruled out, as well as Deebo Samuel Sr. being listed as questionable. Still, the fact that they should have plenty of success on the ground makes them a strong candidate to move the ball this way, before looking to big-body targets in the red zone, like Zach Ertz.
The Pick: Commanders -4.5 ML (-112 DraftKings)
Week 6 Monday Night Football Player Props
Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
I know this number seems a tad high, and it might be, but we just discussed how bad that Bears' run defense is, and Croskey-Merritt may be starting to become the Commanders' workhorse sooner rather than later.
Last week, Croskey-Merritt toted the rock 14 times for 111 rushing yards. It was the second time this season he has eclipsed the 80+ rushing yards mark, and it was the first time since Week 1. Croskey-Merritt also saw solid reps last week, as he was in on 28 snaps, which is 13 more than Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr., the latter of which is listed as questionable for Monday night.
As noted, the Bears allow over 6.0 yards per carry and have also allowed at least one running back to eclipse this total in each of their previous three games. The fact that Washington is favored by over a field goal also helps Croskey-Merritt's case here, as the Commanders could look to salt this game away late with the rushing attack.
Bill Croskey-Merritt keeps getting yards
WASvsLAC on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/j0gXwwNO6n
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
Kyle Pitts Sr. UNDER 40.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
For our second player prop tonight, we are going to look at the first Monday night game between the Bills and Falcons. Although Pitts has seen a solid 18.3% target share in this Falcons offense, he has failed to eclipse this total in two of his four games, and has been unable to do so in two of the Falcons' previous three games. The matchup against the Bills should prove to be difficult as well.
On the season, the Bills have allowed a total of just 113 receiving yards to the tight end position, which ranks second-best in the league. Overall, last week, Hunter Henry was the only one able to eclipse this total when he hauled in two receptions for 46 receiving yards. Aside from this performance, no tight end has gone for more than 28 receiving yards against the Bills.
Week 6 Monday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bet
Tyler Allgeier ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN scorer (+185, DraftKings)
So, the obvious selection for an anytime touchdown would be Bijan Robinson here. Still, he is currently listed at -170 to score, so we are going to take a different avenue in Allgeier, who has much better odds. I won't blame you if you want to look Robinson's way, but a case can certainly be made for Allgeier as well.
Although Robinson is the Falcons' lead back, Allgeier has carried the ball 10+ times in three of the Falcons' first four games and has two games with 15+ carries. He has also been heavily involved in the red zone, as he has seen 10 total carries here. Additionally, he has seen more than four attempts in the red zone in two different games.
This is good news regarding touchdowns, especially since the Bills have struggled a bit defending against running back touchdowns. On the season, the Bills have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs, which is tied for the third-most in the league. They have also allowed a running back to score a rushing touchdown in each of their previous three games.
What an effort by Tyler Allgeier for the @AtlantaFalcons TD!
WASvsATL on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/F2tpqHHwsl
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025
