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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Valspar Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Valspar Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
7,360 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
Is there a chance we are living in an alternate reality and that Florida has somehow hijacked the PGA Tour? After what felt like a never-ending tournament at the Players Championship, we are back for more Florida golf this weekend at the Valspar Championship. Before I get into my breakdown of the facility, I do want to note that while Copperhead is geologically located in the sunshine state, the tangible feel of the property should give us a much different style of golf than we have seen over the past few weeks.
Measuring in at a respectable 7,360 yards, Innisbrook Resort is one of the more challenging venues that we get on tour yearly for a few core reasons. Seventy-four bunkers and eight water hazards are littered throughout the property to provide headache and despair for the field at all turns, but it is the sinister nature of the course that removes certain aspects from your game - all while demanding a complete tee-to-green skill set for those that find success.
The difference of this venue compared to other Florida tracks stems from the tree-lined nature of the layout. Twenty-four-yard fairways and three-inch rough condenses the grounds into this tight and compact off-the-tee test, but the variable that makes it the most complicated is the virtual removal of a driver from the players' repertoire. Golfers will be required to work the ball in both directions, and the reduced lay-ups sneakily add in hidden distance to the track that we might not see upfront. There are an abnormal five par-threes that stretch over 200 yards, not to mention all the par-fives are lengthy, but the mixture of those two factors and the variety of par-four lengths is one of the reasons we see 67.8% of second shots take place from 150 yards and beyond.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Copperhead | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 271 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 61% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.53 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%)
- Strokes Gained Mixed Putting + Total (12.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Difficult Courses (12.5%)
- Weighted Scrambling (10%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%)
- Total Driving (10%)
- GIR + ATG (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
This week, there are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember this is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Viktor Hovland ($10,800)
I don't know if there is a hotter golfer in the world at this moment than Viktor Hovland, who continues to shine with his game when we remove around the green metrics from the equation. Copperhead is a venue that features smaller-than-average greens, which will heighten a few of the short game statistics that will come into play, but some of the concerns will still likely be less pronounced here than a typical stop. I don't think the bunkers are overly challenging. There is some undulation to the greens, but nothing that I would call extreme, and we know the ball-striking is elite by all standards.
Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
Let me quickly discuss the other three options for a second before I get into Collin Morikawa. Justin Thomas ($11,000) is hard to ignore on the surface, but there wasn't a golfer at the Players that had to deal with as much weather as he did over the four rounds. I believe he is the favorite for a reason, but I prefer pivoting to Hovland when comparing the two side-by-side. Xander Schauffele ($10,300) will be the contrarian option of the group. You can take some shots with him in GPPs if you want, but I am not overly concerned with trying to fit him into lineups. Dustin Johnson ($10,200) got both a price and ownership boost after his fiery close to the Players. I think it is worth noting that he is a dog to every player in this range, including being an underdog to some of the $9,000 options, but it is Collin Morikawa ($10,700) that I will be having the rest of my exposure to at the top. The American ranks second in this field for weighted tee-to-green and is also inside the top-two when looking at GIR percentage, par-five birdie or better and strokes gained total at difficult courses.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900)
You aren't going to get an ownership discount on Louis Oosthuizen, but this is one of those spots where I am fine eating the chalk. Bad back aside, there hasn't been a safer golfer at this course over the last few years, and the luxury of sleeping in his bed should only help him keep his back feeling right. Oosthuizen ranks third in this field when reconstructing the tee-to-green metrics to mimic Copperhead, and the worst category I can find for him is par-five scoring (27th overall), which can be viewed in multiple facets since those holes aren't as simple as usual. Does it make the lack of par-five scoring more critical? Perhaps. Or does it allow a golfer to get away with a few blunders since the whole field will sometimes struggle to produce birdie? If historical trends mean anything, the latter might be the answer for Louis.
Other Thoughts: It is a strong group in the $9,000 range. Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) will all be in my player pool.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Webb Simpson ($8,300)
Taking a shot on Webb Simpson at $8,300 doesn't mean going 10x the field in ownership. Only Webb knows some of the unquantifiable variables regarding his health, but it is easy to play him in 15% of your builds and still be over three times as heavy as other users this weekend in Florida. The downside is evident since he just made his first start of 2022 at the Players, but I thought he looked relatively healthy, and I don't think it is outlandish to say that a fit Simpson would have been in the higher-end of the $9,000 range.
Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700) should have been in the $9,000s, according to my numbers. There is an argument to be had that he makes for a better cash-game play, but let's see where the ownership goes over the next few days.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900)
Bogey avoidance, scrambling and putting could have priced Christiaan Bezuidenhout around $1,000 higher. I prefer playing Webb Simpson if deciding directly between the two, but I will fit Bezuidenhout into a handful of builds this week.
Aaron Wise ($7,700)
Aaron Wise is the only golfer inside the $7,000 range that grades inside the top-15 of my upside model. We see that potential come from his ball-striking and tee-to-green numbers, and I will be finding numerous ways to gain exposure to the 25-year-old this week.
Mito Pereira ($7,200)
Yuck. That is all I can say about the early ownership returns for Mito Pereira, but something has to give for him when viewing his ball-striking and short game. Pereira has averaged 4.3 shots to the field tee-to-green over his past three contests, but the putter has let him down, losing 2.23 strokes over as many starts. I will be more cautious if Mito sneaks into the 15% range, but I am still okay with where things stand between 10-14%.
Adam Svensson ($7,200)
Adam Svensson is the natural pivot for me away from Mito Pereira when I am trying to diversify exposure, but I am all for playing both together. Svensson is a pristine iron player that excels from 150 yards and beyond, and we have seen him average over four shots to the field with his ball-striking over his last three starts.
Joel Dahmen ($7,100)
Joel Dahmen's increase in weighted tee-to-green versus his average expectation (to go along with his weighted scrambling) has me finding different ways to use the American. I am not sure if he is the first player I am trying to gain exposure to in the $7,000 range, but I certainly will have more of him than the field.
Danny Willet ($7,100)
If you want to create leverage with your lineup, can I interest you in Danny Willet? The Englishman grades as both a top-25 par-five scorer and around the green specialist, bringing with him solid course history and form for a golfer that will be 1-2% owned.
Talor Moore ($7,000)
Talor Moore is another boom-or-bust choice that can help open up lineups when you find yourself getting stuck in all the same chalk zones.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
Pat Perez ($6,900), J.J. Spaun ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Martin Kaymer ($6,800), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700), Troy Merritt ($6,600), Hank Lebioda ($6,600), Kramer Hickok ($6,500), Trey Mullinax ($6,400),
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