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Brandon's fantasy hockey buy-lows, breakouts, trade candidates to target for Week 5 in 2026. These unlucky players are underperforming early for fantasy hockey.
Hey, RotoBallers! Happy Halloween to those celebrating this week. We are nearing the end of October, and the dust has begun to settle with nearly a month of hockey played. Fantasy managers are starting to identify potential breakout candidates and are growing concerned about many underperforming stars. However, while it's often more exciting to discuss top early-season breakouts, we also need to spotlight some early-season underperformers or unlucky players.
Below are six unlucky players who have found themselves not producing to start the season for several reasons. We will do a deep dive on each player and make the case as to why they are an ideal 'buy-low' candidate.
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NHL Metrics Glossary
ixG = Individual Expected Goals
iSCF = Individual Scoring Chances For
iHDCF = Individual High-Danger Chances For
xGF/60 = Expected Goals For Per 60
SCF/60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60
HDCF/60 = High-Danger Chances For Per 60
Fantasy Hockey Unlucky Players to Buy
Joel Eriksson Ek (C) - Minnesota Wild
In his last five games, he has produced two goals, three assists, and 20 shots on goal. While those numbers are solid in their own right, there is another level Eriksson Ek can reach,
Over the last two weeks, he has also posted 5.38 Expected Goals For Per 60 (third-best), 39.28 Scoring Chances For Per 60 (29th-best), and 22.52 High-Danger Chances For Per 60 (third-best). Notably, his Individual Expected Goals For Per 60, or ixGF/60, is strong.
According to MoneyPuck, Eriksson Ek has generated 8.6 Expected Goals For, which is the second-highest mark in the sport.
As shown below, Eriksson Ek is generating high-danger opportunities near the crease, which is why his underlying marks remain borderline elite.
In the same timeframe, JEE has posted 2.26 ixGF/60, good for fourth-best. Ever since his promotion to the top line, he has continued to succeed in multiple aspects of the game, and his underlying numbers back it up. Earlier in his career, Eriksson Ek was a 25+ goal scorer, and his metrics suggest he could return to that level in 2026.
Pavel Dorofeyev (LW, RW) - New York Rangers
Pavel Dorofeyev, the ex-Golden Knight, got a big payday as he headed to Broadway this offseason in a blockbuster trade with the New York Rangers. Unfortunately for him and the Rangers, Pavel has yet to provide the scoring punch the Rangers expected from the deal.
At least, that is until recently. In his last six games, he has produced two goals, three assists, 19 shots, and two blocked shots. However, there is still a screaming buy window as Dorofeyev has yet to live up to his ADP, especially as he is coming off two 35+ goal campaigns.
Much of Dorofeyev’s early-season lack of production can be credited to his teammates' quality and lack of chemistry as he bounced between the Rangers' top two lines. The winger ranks in the top 200 forwards in xGF/60 (2.42), SCF/60 (26.77), and HDCF/60 (13.39).
In the visual below (from NHL Edge), Dorofeyev ranks in the 98th and 96th percentiles in high-danger and mid-range shot attempts. He is generating a high volume of high-danger shots but has yet to connect on them.
Per MoneyPuck.com, Dorofeyev has generated a -4.4 Goals Above Shooting Talent, which puts him behind only the noted JEE. Expect him to enjoy a scoring binge soon.
Rickard Rakell (C, LW, RW) - Pittsburgh Penguins
The winger is one of the ‘unluckiest’ players in the league currently, and he, his teammates, and even the coaching staff have mentioned it several times. Luckily, Rakell’s luck is starting to turn. However, there is still plenty of positive regression to be had.
The winger has managed two goals, one assist, 16 shots, and three blocked shots in his most recent five appearances. Throughout the last two weeks, Rakell ranks in the top 50 in both Expected Goals For Per 60 (3.91) and High-Danger Chances For Per 60 (18.07). He also ranks just outside the top 50 in Scoring Chances For Per 60 (36.15), and he has a 1.91 ixGF/60 (eighth-best).
His 54% Corsi% is right in line with his career norms, and he has currently generated a -2.8 Goals Above Shooting Talent (per MoneyPuck.com), suggesting he is due for major positive regression.
Rakell is seeing plenty of chances and opportunities, with two breakaways in just the last game that he managed to get stopped on. Don’t sleep on a reliable player whose fortunes still haven't matched his underlying production.
Managers can still acquire a 25+ goal scorer at a low cost but should act fast as his expected metrics are slowly starting to show on the box score.
Jackson Blake (RW) - Carolina Hurricanes
The final forward we will look at is a "buy" target for those in deeper formats.
Jackson Blake is one of the few players on this list who has already been performing, but is likely still undervalued in your fantasy league.
With at least six games played and a fully healthy team, the second line has the season's highest Expected Goals For Per 60 (60.47). When assessing their current lineup (Nikolaj Ehlers on the line), they are still the top line in xGF/60 (77.98).
In his last five games, he has produced one goal, four assists, and 17 shots on goal.
Over the last two weeks, he ranks in the top 30 in xGF/60 (2.08), SCF/60 (22.98), and HDCF/60 (17.9). He also ranks in the top 50 in ixGF/60 (0.64). However, there could be even more offensive production in the coming weeks.
Blake has generated 5.5 Expected Goals (per MoneyPuck.com) compared to just two goals scored and boasts a 75.2% On-Ice Expected Goals%, which shows his value to this Carolina offense.
The 23-year-old has been productive, but in terms of his underlying marks, he has been quite unlucky, as his ceiling could be even higher.
Jakob Chychrun (D) - Washington Capitals
Despite the Washington Capitals' strong start to the season, Jakob Chychrun has not been a full part of it. Chychrun went on a five-game pointless streak before finally snapping it and going on a three-game point streak (four assists) in his last three games.
When assessing his last five appearances, he has amassed four assists, 14 shots on goal, and 11 blocked shots.
In the last two weeks, among all defensemen, Chychrun is the 28th-best in xGF/60 (3.62), the 20th-best in SCF/60 (42.22), and the 98th-best in HDCF/60 (11.73). He also ranks in the top 12 in ixGF/60 (0.41). As the top power-play quarterback, the veteran two-way defenseman will continue to have several opportunities.
As a defender, Chychrun is still shooting the puck at a high rate and should see his offensive production rebound. He is also currently on pace to log an extra minute of average ice time per game while maintaining a near-identical 2:59 PPTOI/G.
It is only a matter of time until he starts to see positive regression skate his way.
Last season, Chychrun tallied a season-best 60 points while operating at the blue line in D.C which is likely tough to replicate, but a 40+ point campaign is in play.
Devon Levi (G) - Edmonton Oilers
The last unlucky player is currently on the IR.
Devon Levi was given a few chances to take the reins with the Buffalo Sabres, but was never given full control of the crease.
This ultimately made him expendable, and the team eventually traded him to the Edmonton Oilers. Since then, he has taken the net by storm, forcing teammate Tristan Jarry to the bench. In the last two weeks (four games), Levi has a 3-1-0 record, a .908 SV%.
According to NHL Edge, Levi sits in the 70th percentile in long-range SV% and 68th percentile in mid-range SV%.
While Levi's numbers are not among the elite class of netminders, they are a drastic improvement over Jarry and enough to operate as the lead option for the Oilers.
Unfortunately, Levi was shifted to the IR, which has allowed Jarry to reclaim the crease. Over his last two starts, Jarry has allowed nine goals on 59 shots (.847% SV%).
Given that he has yet to truly claim the No. 1 job, managers can likely acquire Levi at a discount, while he remains on the IR. Once active, he should quickly reclaim the starting role and see the bulk of the starts on a team that should finish at the top of the Pacific Division.
More Fantasy Hockey and Analysis
