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Kipp's fantasy football targets and avoids for 2026 based on game scripts. His game-script winners and losers for preseason fantasy drafts, including Dak Prescott.
Hello RotoBallers, and welcome to what I consider to be a rather unique article that looks to pinpoint game script winners and losers for the 2026 season. When I signed up for this article, I had to do a quick read of last year's piece, so I knew what direction I was supposed to go in today.
I am very glad I did because I think the idea of picking players who will benefit from game scripts is extremely beneficial in drafts, and it is something most of us do on a weekly basis when it comes to building DFS lineups.
In this article, I will examine players who could either benefit or suffer from the overall construct of their team. This means that certain wide receivers could hold value simply because their team's defense is not positioned well to hold a lead, or a running back who could be in exactly the opposite scenario.
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Fantasy Football Game Script Winners
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
We are going to start with the most obvious player on this list in Dak Prescott. Sure, he is pretty solid as it is, having thrown for more than 4,400 passing yards in each of his previous three full seasons. He was healthy last year and promptly threw for 4,552 passing yards and 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
Prescott also attempted 600 passes, which is the most he has ever thrown in any single season. Why do you think this might be? A prime reason the Cowboys were throwing so frequently is that they had arguably the worst defense in the league, which prompted them to have to throw more in order to stay in games.
Last season, Dallas allowed over 251 passing yards per game and over 125 rushing yards per game, ranking 32nd and 23rd overall, respectively. Additionally, the Cowboys allowed 30.1 points per game, which ranked dead last in the league. The defense has not improved much for 2026, either.
If the Dallas defense continues to struggle in 2026 as they did in 2025, Prescott could be in for another huge season. He also has plenty of weapons to throw the ball to in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, so the sky is the limit for this passing attack.
DAK PRESCOTT ARE YOU SERIOUS?!
GBvsDAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/mpfdL3HlKo— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2025
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks
While Prescott is an easy sell for a game script winner, running backs are a little more difficult, but Jadarian Price has a shot to be successful in Seattle, given the strength of its defense. In 2025, Seattle allowed just 194 passing yards per game and 92 rushing yards per game, ranking them 10th and second-best in the league, respectively.
The Seahawks also ranked best in the league by allowing just 17.2 points per game, which means they likely won't be down by much late in games if they repeat this success. On top of that, Seattle averaged over 28 points per game on offense, which ranked third-best in the league.
This leads me to believe that when they gain a lead, the team will rely on Price, whom the Seahawks used a first-round draft pick on to shoulder the load. The Seahawks also let Kenneth Walker III walk (no pun intended) this offseason, so Price will be a big factor in this rushing attack in 2026.
At Notre Dame, Price carried the rock 113 times for 674 rushing yards last season, which equated to six yards per attempt. He also served behind stud running back Jeremiyah Love, who carried the ball 199 times. With a larger workload on the horizon in Seattle, Price could potentially be a league-winner in 2026.
.@NDFootball RB Jadarian Price was cruising for a 4.5u on his first run.
2026 NFL Combine on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/z5wadFLqZO— NFL (@NFL) February 28, 2026
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
I easily could have gone with Joe Burrow or Ja'Marr Chase here, but I wanted to go with a player you can acquire a little later in drafts, and Tee Higgins fits that characteristic. Higgins had a solid 2025 campaign despite losing Burrow for more than half of the season.
Overall, he finished with 59 receptions on 98 targets for 846 receiving yards and a very respectable 11 touchdowns. He should be a focal point in this offense in 2026, which figures to be in some higher-scoring games based on the lackluster defense they have assembled.
In 2025, the Bengals allowed over 232 passing yards per game, which ranked seventh-worst in the league. They also allowed 30 points per game, ranking third-worst in the league. Even if a team gets behind in a game versus the Bengals, the pass defense is so bad that the opposing team will never really be out of it.
That should lead the Bengals to throw the ball quite a bit. Last season, the Bengals quarterbacks combined for over 4,000 passing yards, and that was with Joe Flacco starting nine games. With a (hopefully) full season of Burrow at the helm, Higgins should flourish once again in this offense.
Tee Higgins oh my
CINvsDEN on ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/mx9GRoHoLL— NFL (@NFL) September 30, 2025
Fantasy Football Game Script Losers
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
When it comes to game script losers, running backs are a bit easier to target, and that is the case with Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard. I have never been high on Pollard, and I am definitely out on him in 2026, given the fact that this Titans defense is quite lackluster.
Last season, the Titans allowed just over 28 points per game, which ranked fifth-worst in the league. They also had one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league, averaging only 16.7 points per game. While I do think the offense improves in 2026 under second-year starter Cam Ward, I do not have a ton of faith in this defense.
In 2025, Pollard rushed for 1,082 yards and eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the fourth consecutive year. The yardage had a lot to do with volume, as he carried the ball 242 times while averaging a positive run rate of just 86%, which ranked in the 23rd percentile.
He will have a difficult time making it five seasons in a row of 1,000 yards behind this defense, and with the Titans drafting Carnell Tate in the first round, it is likely they will come out focusing on the passing game a bit more with the aforementioned Ward.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
I really like C.J. Stroud as a player and think he could have a solid 2026 campaign, but he would not be one of my top choices to lead my fantasy squad at the quarterback position. Last season, he threw for just 3,041 passing yards and 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions across 14 games played.
While he did miss three games, this Houston offense is not exactly prolific, and part of this is due to the fact that it does not have to be based on the strength of its defense. In 2025, Houston allowed just 183.5 passing yards per game and 93.7 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, each of which ranked them in the top six.
Additionally, Houston allowed just 17.4 points per game, which ranked second-best in the league behind only the aforementioned Seahawks. While I think Houston will be a solid team overall in 2026, I do not think Stroud will be forced to throw the ball all that often, given that the team likely will not be allowing a ton of points on defense.
Stroud also does not have a ton of weapons on offense outside of Nico Collins, and with Tank Dell coming back from injury and Jayden Higgins suffering a season-ending injury already, I just do not have a ton of faith here.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I know a ton of folks are high on DeVonta Smith in 2026 since the Eagles have moved on from A.J. Brown; however, I just do not see it shaping up all that great. Keep in mind that this is an Eagles offense that likes to move the ball on the ground. In 2025, they ranked as the 10th-worst in the league, averaging just 194.3 passing yards per game.
A big part of this is obviously the fact that they have Saquon Barkley in the backfield, but they also have a strong defense that allowed just 22 points per game and ranked in the top half of the league last season. The Eagles also brought in Hollywood Brown and Dontayvion Wicks, so there will be at least some competition for targets this season.
Additionally, in 2025, Smith had just two 100-plus-yard receiving games. This feels like another season where the Eagles hammer the ball with Barkley and spread the receiving targets around, making Smith a tough buy for me.
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