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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 14. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome to yet another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. We've been aiming to steer you in the right direction, and so far it's been a pretty fun journey. We've delivered on guys like James Wood, Cal Raleigh, Zach Neto, and Eugenio Suarez. Hopefully you followed our advice and bought in when we said to!
Heading into Week 14, we still need to do a bit of digging to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
We'll break down four more hitters, three of whom are rookies and the fourth a vet whose name most fantasy managers know by now. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Nick Kurtz, Josh Lowe, Agustin Ramirez, and Cam Smith. Now, let's get into it. All stats in this article reflect games played through Sunday, 6/29.
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Nick Kurtz, Athletics
2025 Stats: .835 OPS, 130 OPS+, 12 HR, 32 RBI, 22 R, 0 SB
You know all about A's rookie of the year leader Jacob Wilson, but there's another rookie putting on a show in Sacramento. Nick Kurtz has played just 46 games this season but has been very impressive in his short time in the majors. If he keeps things up, there's an outside chance he could snag the AL rookie of the year honors from his teammate.
So, do the stats say his bat will stay hot? Let's take a look.
There is nothing quite like a Ken Korach walk-off call. You can feel the magic off the crack of Nick Kurtz’s bat. #Athletics pic.twitter.com/c3KnfPhQL0
— Uprooted (@uprootedoakland) June 17, 2025
For starters, there's a clear area of improvement that we can see from his plate approach. That would be his strikeout rate, which sits at 31.7 percent. That ranks in the third percentile. With a whiff rate of 33.9 percent, which ranks in the fourth percentile, it's not likely that we'll see his strikeout rate improve anytime soon.
His walk rate of 8.7 percent ranks much closer to league average and isn't a worry.
As we move onto his batted ball profile, we can see he's hitting groundballs at a 42.2 percent rate and flyballs at a 45.0 percent rate. He hits line drives at a 12.8 percent rate. That's a number you'd like to see increased as long as it takes away from grounders, not flyballs.
One particularly notable aspect of his batted ball profile is his HR/FB rate. That sits at 24.5 percent, which puts him in the company of guys like the Tigers' Riley Greene and the Mariners' Cal Raleigh. They rank sixth and seventh in HR/FB rate. That's not too shabby for Kurtz, whose HR/FB rate was even higher in the minors (38.1 percent in 21 games at Single-A and Triple-A in 2025).
As we move on to the expected statistics, we can see that they are expecting a slight negative regression. Kurtz is hitting for a .354 wOBA and a .342 xwOBA. That ranks in the 64th percentile, which is still great, so the floor isn't all that low.
That gap could be even closer, though, as the 22-year-old does one thing particularly well. That's hitting the ball hard. He has a 48.6 percent hard hit rate, which ranks in the 80th percentile. He's also got a 14.7 percent barrel rate, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Hitting the ball hard generally leads to better results, so as long as he keeps on hitting it hard, then he'll be able to fend off negative regression for a longer period.
Nick Kurtz goes deep for the 7th time in his last 13 games.pic.twitter.com/BOy5tn3KVQ
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) June 28, 2025
As we move onto the pitch mix he faces, the difference between what has negative regression and what pitches are expected to have positive regression is somewhat uneven.
The four-seam fastball is the pitch he sees the most, coming in at a 25.5 percent rate. He's hitting them for a .355 wOBA and a .371 xwOBA. Positive regression for the pitch you see the most is always a good thing.
He's also expecting positive regression on changeups. He's currently hitting them for a .322 wOBA and a .415 xwOBA. It's the highest xwOBA he has for any pitch, and if pitchers want to keep throwing him four-seamers and changeups, he's going to really make them pay soon enough.
Now for the biggest swing we'll expect to see, and that's sinkers. This has easily been his favorite pitch to face as he's hitting them for a ridiculous .565 wOBA. That, however, is paired with a .362 xwOBA. That floor for xwOBA is still pretty solid, but there's a major gap between what's real and what's expected. At 17.4 percent, it's the pitch he sees second-most, so the negative regression we're expecting will hit harder here.
Kurtz is also expecting negative regression on sliders. He's hit them well at a .392 wOBA, but that's paired with a .362 xwOBA. Not quite the drop we're expecting with sinkers, but still a drop nonetheless.
One pitch I expect pitchers to attack him with more is the curveball. He's currently seeing them for a .178 wOBA that's paired with a .288 xwOBA. The gap's considerable, but even at a .288 xwOBA, that's a number pitchers should certainly target. They're throwing him curves 11.1 percent of the time, and I'd expect that to increase soon.
Verdict: The most obvious thing about Kurtz is that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. I don't believe the negative regression that his xwOBA is expected to hurt him. He's in a great spot, and fantasy managers should continue to feel comfortable trotting him out there in their fantasy lineups until the wheels fall off.
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Stats: .776 OPS, 120 OPS+, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 28 R, 6 SB
We've covered quite a few Rays players, and now we're getting you one of the Lowes. He missed much of the beginning of the season thanks to an oblique strain, but has made a big impact on the lineup since his return. In fact, they're 26-13 since he's gotten back from his injury, and Tampa's one of the best teams in baseball in that span.
So let's see how he's impacted that.
In his plate approach, there's one clear improvement. His strikeout rate is down to 21.0 percent after posting a 31.8 percent last year. The next lowest strikeout rate he has posted was 24.8 percent in 2023, and he hit for a 128 OPS+ at that time. When his strikeout rate has been 30 percent or worse, his OPS+ has been below league average, making this a clear indicator that the less he strikes out, the better he tends to hit.
His walk rate is also up one percent, from 8.3 percent to 9.3 percent, which gives us positive news on both numbers.
Lowe Island 🏝️ pic.twitter.com/bwL8A5dsFZ
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) June 27, 2025
From a batted ball perspective, we're seeing quite a bit of movement from season to season. His ground-ball rate is up (36.2 percent to 42.7 percent), his fly-ball rate is way down (41.8 percent to 27.3 percent), and his line-drive rate is way up (22.0 percent to 30.0 percent). These are wild swings that make his increase in HR/FB rate (from 10.3 percent to 16.7 percent) less notable than it would be for other hitters.
If he can hit more flyballs and take away from his career-high ground-ball rate, then that would be a very good sign for the 27-year-old.
As we move on to the expected statistics, it appears that the results he's achieved this season have been accurate. He's hitting for a .342 wOBA to go along with a .346 xwOBA. That number should stay around where it's at now as he's got a 47.3 percent hard hit rate, putting him in the company of fellow Lowe and Tampa teammate Brandon Lowe, whose 47.1 percent hard hit rate ranks in the 73rd percentile.
That high, hard-hit rate may help explain why we're expecting a positive regression for Lowe, given his .321 BABIP. You'd normally expect negative regression with a number like that, but he's also posted up BABIPs above .300 in every year of his career. So this may just be the type of hitter that Lowe is on a day-to-day basis.
As we look at the pitch mix he faces, there are three clear pitches he loves hitting that make up three of the top four pitches he faces. Those would be four-seamers (28.7 percent usage), sinkers (13.0 percent usage), and cutters (11.3 percent). Four-seamers are a pitch he's already crushing, and the expected stats say he should hit them even better (.422 wOBA, .455 xwOBA).
Sinkers and cutters aren't expecting positive regression, but they still have a high floor. Sinkers are being hit for a .433 wOBA and a .399 xWOBA. Cutters are being hit for a .442 wOBA and a .377 xwOBA. Both of those gaps are large enough to make negative regression notable, but a .377 floor is very, very good.
THAT LOUD ENOUGH FOR YA, ZACH??
JOSH LOWE LEADOFF BOMBApic.twitter.com/Qn0jWNiSGf
— Rays The Roof (@RaysTheRoofTB) June 16, 2025
I expect Lowe to see sliders even more. He's not hitting well right now (.223 wOBA), and his ceiling isn't overwhelmingly good (.290 xwOBA). He sees sliders 13.7 percent of the time, and that number should increase soon. I'd also expect him to see more sweepers and curves, as both of them have an xwOBA of .300 or lower.
It's clear that he crushes all types of fastballs and struggles with breaking balls.
Verdict: Lowe is making an impact on Tampa Bay's offense and has been helping fantasy managers along the way. He is finding a way to get more balls in play and continues to crush any type of fastball by hitting them hard. The numbers say his results are consistent, and that's where I'm at with him as well.
Expect similar production throughout the rest of the season unless pitchers decide to throw him more breaking stuff, in which case he'll start to dwindle a bit.
Agustin Ramirez, Miami Marlins
2025 Stats: .790 OPS, 114 OPS+, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 32 R, 1 SB
The Marlins are on a heater right now, having won seven straight games. A huge contributor has been rookie Agustin Ramirez, who's gone 11-26 and is slugging .726 in these seven games. On the season, he's been pretty solid too, so is this recent streak a sign of better things to come? Let's find out.
Agustin Ramirez crushes his 12th HR of the season.
He has fourth most HR among all catchers with at least 10 games played at the position this season.
He didn’t play his first game until April 21st.pic.twitter.com/HhCO5fdpNP
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) June 27, 2025
From a plate approach perspective, we can see the rookie definitely prefers to put balls in play. His strikeout rate sits at 18.9 percent, while his walk rate sits at 6.8 percent. For the most part, you can expect him to put the bat on the ball when he's up at the plate.
One thing that's a touch concerning is that he does chase the ball quite a bit. His 33.0 percent chase rate ranks in the 17th percentile, giving him a clear area of opportunity with his plate approach.
From a batted ball perspective, we see he's pretty heavy on groundballs. He hits them at a 47.6 percent rate, which is slightly higher than we would like to see. He hits flyballs at a 34.1 percent rate and line drives at an 18.4 percent rate. If he's able to start hitting more flyballs and line drives, then fantasy managers can expect his stats to look even more productive.
One number that shows this could be a better outcome for him is his HR/FB rate of 19.0 percent. That's a pretty decent number for someone who calls Miami home and ties him with Kyle Stowers for second on the Marlins this season. If he's able to get more balls in the air, then that should, in turn, get him more long balls. With 12 homers on the year, that number should finish close to 25 or higher if he hits more flyballs.
As we get to the expected stats, things start to look better for the rest of Ramirez's season. He's hitting for a .338 wOBA paired with a .363 xwOBA, which points towards obvious positive regression for the 23-year-old catcher. As with the other players we've profiled, much of this is thanks to a high hard-hit rate (48.6 percent, 80th percentile) and a high barrel rate (11.9 percent, 72nd percentile).
Agustín Ramirez first 5 MLB games:
7-XBH/.474-BAHe's already in the conversation for one of my favorite righty swings.. ever pic.twitter.com/nysdvz0QS9
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) April 28, 2025
Much of the positive regression we can expect for Ramirez can be found in each of the top five pitches he sees the most. Not all have high floors, but to be expecting better results on the top five pitches you see most is a very, very good thing for the rookie.
Four-seamers (.398 wOBA, .408 xwOBA) and sweepers (.403 wOBA, .472 xwOBA) are two of those top five pitches, and both have an xwOBA of .400 or better. He sees four-seamers 28.4 percent of the time and sweepers 9.9 percent of the time.
That gap we see for sweepers will be a real difference maker if pitchers choose to trust that pitch against him. Why they would do that, I'm not sure, but if he sees one, he'll crush it.
The next two pitches of those five that are expecting positive regression, and have a decent floor, are sinkers and cutters. Sinkers (.324 wOBA, .333 xwOBA) have a relatively close gap. Cutters (.143 wOBA, .338 xwOBA) are a much different story. That bump will make a noticeable difference in his production.
He only sees them 8.3 percent of the time, so it may be easy for pitchers to avoid the pitch, but if they throw it because of his current stats, then he's likely to get good results against them.
With sliders, Ramirez is expecting positive regression, too. It's the pitch he sees the second most. And even though he should be seeing better results, I'd expect him to see sliders more. With a .211 wOBA and a .239 xwOBA, it's clearly the biggest weak point for the Marlins' backstop. He sees them 21.7 percent of the time, so it may be harder for pitchers to throw them to him more, but it beats the other breaking pitches he crushes in sweepers and curveballs (.610 wOBA, .461 xwOBA).
Verdict: Ramirez is hitting the ball hard and is getting good results because of it. He needs to get the ball in the air more for me to fully buy into the gap that his wOBA and xwOBA predict. But with his top five pitches all expecting positive regression, it's hard for me not to expect him to see better results as the season progresses.
Expect his 114 OPS+ to easily jump to 120 and possibly up to 125 or so by season's end.
Cam Smith, Houston Astros
2025 Stats: .776 OPS, 118 OPS+, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 32 R, 4 SB
As part of the Kyle Tucker trade, Cam Smith had big shoes to fill coming into this season. With Yordan Alvarez's injury and now Jeremy Pena's placement on the IL, it's even more crucial for the Astros' pieces to continue producing. But Smith has been a valuable asset to the Astros' lineup in his rookie season. Can he keep it up and help drive the Astros to yet another AL West division title? Let's see.
Cam Smith homers in back-to-back games against the Cubs 😮 pic.twitter.com/wnIVvnriwN
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2025
From a plate approach perspective, Smith already seems like an unusual Astro given that he has a high strikeout rate. He's striking out 26.7 percent of the time, something Houston usually does well at avoiding. He's also walking 8.6 percent of the time, which is a little above league average and much better than his strikeout rate.
One thing to note about his strikeout rate is that it may just take a little more adjustment time for the 22-year-old. As a minor leaguer in Chicago's system last year, he only struck out 17.9 percent of the time. Some of the increase we're seeing is likely due to simply being in the big leagues; otherwise, it could be the Astros teaching him a different approach.
Either way, there's a chance that the number decreases with time.
From a batted ball perspective, two numbers stick out to me right away. The first is his ground-ball rate, which sits at a rather high 47.6 percent mark. The second is his line-drive rate of 27.4 percent, which is very impressive. It's leaving him just a 25.0 percent fly-ball rate.
That number's fine if he keeps the line drives up, but if those decrease, he's going to need a higher fly-ball rate so that they don't turn into easy grounders.
His 16.7 percent HR/FB rate shows that if he gets the ball in the air, then there's a decent chance he's going yard. But with such a low fly-ball rate, it's not all that likely he's going deep. With seven longballs on the year, FanGraphs' models expect him to finish with about 15 HR by season's end.
Looking at his expected stats, it'd appear that Smith has a slight amount of positive regression heading his way. He's hitting for a .343 wOBA to go along with a .350 xwOBA. That xwOBA ranks in the 71st percentile, very respectable for the rookie.
His 47.6 hard hit rate ranks in the 76th percentile, helping drive those numbers. But, as you could expect from his low fly-ball rate, the barrel rate is low, with just a 7.7 percent mark.
I'm also a bit skeptical that positive regression could be coming for him, given that his BABIP sits at .366 on the season. Now, he did put up a .337 BABIP in the minors with the Cubs, so it could stay above .300 or so, but we still need to expect that he'll start to see more unfavorable results on balls in play, especially if that high line-drive rate drops.
With the top two pitches that Smith sees, we can tell there's a very clear strength and a very clear weakness he has. As with most hitters, he sees four-seamers the most at a 26.0 percent rate. He's hitting them for a .376 wOBA that's paired with a .437 xwOBA. Given his high line-drive rate, maybe some of them have been snagged when they shouldn't have been, when he's seen fastballs and he's gotten unlucky because of that.
The pitch he sees second most often is sliders. He sees them 19.5 percent of the time, and his hitting them for a .203 wOBA that's paired with a .230 xwOBA. Positive regression, yes, but the ceiling is very, very low on this pitch. I would expect that pitchers throw him more sliders eventually, though it's already at a fairly high percentage.
One pitch that's expected to show clear negative regression is the sweepers. He's currently mashing those for a .446 wOBA, but it's paired with a .286 xwOBA. Pitchers may be hesitant to keep throwing him sweepers, but if they continue working through it, they should find better results against Smith soon.
Cam Smith this season:
Bat speed -- 90th percentile
Range (OAA) -- 94th percentile
Sprint speed -- 91st percentileFirst 30 games (.214/.313/.347)
Last 29 games (.317/.361/.475)Still only played 91 professional games 🚀 pic.twitter.com/bspj45eNUp
— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) June 18, 2025
Pitchers should avoid throwing changeups to the rookie, though. He's hit them for a .422 wOBA, and that's paired with a .398 xwOBA. Sure, there's some negative regression coming, but a near .400 xwOBA means that's a pitch he's mashing altogether. With both four-seamers and changeups playing off each other, pitchers are going to have to go the junk route to get Smith out more often.
Verdict: Smith is finding success in Houston, and the results he's been getting are fairly true. I worry quite a bit, though, about the line-drive rate and the high BABIP that he's posting. If that BABIP starts to decrease closer to the league average of .300, then it's going to be a sharper falloff for Smith than we'd like.
Given that his xwOBA is expected to show positive regression, I wouldn't expect a sharp falloff at all. But I am skeptical that he'll see positive regression. Hold onto Smith for now and keep finding ways to get him into your lineup until the stats become a little clearer. At the very least, it doesn't hurt to be hitting in the middle of an Astros lineup that's been getting on base like crazy and giving Smith more and more opportunities to record an RBI often.
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