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Andy looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Tony Gonsolin, Griffin Canning and JP Sears for real?
With a full month of data to analyze, it is time to take a look at three surprising pitchers in baseball. These pitchers have exceeded all expectations and have flashed strong upside.
In this piece, we will do a deep dive on three pitchers who have surprised many through the early part of the campaign: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin, New York Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning, and Athletics starting pitcher JP Sears.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or is their breakout a fake-out? Let's dive in!
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Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Stats: 16 IP, 2.81 ERA, 2.67 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, 33.3% K%
60% Rostered
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 campaign recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in August 2023. During the 2023 season, Gonsolin logged 103 innings and had a 4.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He struck out just 82 batters.
However, he was a very practical option in the Dodger rotation through the first half of his career and appears to be returning to form in 2025 after Tommy John.
During the 2022 campaign, Gonsolin was named an NL All-Star. He held a stellar 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across a career-high 130 1/3 innings of work. In this campaign, the right-hander struck out 119 batters and had a strong 7.0% walk rate. Under the hood, he generated an excellent .238 xwOBA, which placed him within the 96th percentile among qualified pitchers.
In 2022, Gonsolin relied on his fastball 39.1% of the time and mixed in a split-finger (27.5% usage) and a slider (21.4% usage). His split-finger and slider were elite, generating .205 and a .241 xwOBA, respectively.
This season, Gonsolin has been leaning on these same pitches and finding similar results. Through his first 16 innings of work (three starts), Gonsolin has thrown his fastball 42.4% of the time and used his split-finger and slider 23.5% and 21.8% of the time, respectively.
His current fastball velocity of 93.5 mph aligns with the 93.1 mph it averaged during his 2022 season. In 2023, his velocity was down to 92.4 mph. So far, this pitch has generated a modest .243 xBA and a .432 xSLG. It has generated whiffs at an impressive 23.5% rate.
In comparison to 2022, during that season, his fastball generated a higher .277 xBA and a .480 xSLG.
While his current sample size is small, it is promising to see his fastball show more upside than it has in the past.
Both his split-finger and slider look just as impressive as they did in 2022. Gonsolin's split-finger has generated whiffs at a 51.9% rate through his first three starts and generated .144 xwOBA. His slider has been near unhittable, boasting a 52.2% whiff rate and a .087 xwOBA.
Overall, Gonsolin generates hard hits at a 28.9% rate (95th percentile) and serves up walks at a strong 6.3% rate (78th percentile).
Tony Gonsolin:
5 IP
0 ER
3 H
2 BB
4 K
31 CSW%— Blake Harris (@BlakeHHarris) May 11, 2025
Verdict: Gonsolin is showing significant upside, even during his first taste of action since Tommy John. In his most recent outing, he shut out the Diamondbacks across five innings. Given that his fastball is showing improvement and both of his breaking balls are generating whiffs and weak contact, Gonsolin is poised to be a strong fantasy option going forward.
He should be rostered in all standard formats.
Griffin Canning, New York Mets
2025 Stats: 42 IP, 2.36 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 1.26 WHIP, 24.1% K%
60% Rostered
Entering the season, the New York Mets' rotation appeared to be the weak spot on their roster. However, the Mets' pitching lab has proved all doubters wrong, as Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, and Canning have also flashed high upside through the opening month.
Through his first five seasons in Los Angeles, the former second-round pick held a cumulative 4.78 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP across 508 innings. Last season, Canning was able to log a career-high 172 innings but struggled as he posted a hefty 5.19 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. He struck out batters at a career-low 17.6%.
However, since moving to Queens, the right-hander has completely flipped the script. Over his first 42 innings of work, Canning has held a strong 2.36 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. He has tallied 42 punchouts but struggled with his command, allowing walks at a modest 9.2% rate.
Over his last 27 innings (five starts), the right-hander has held a stellar 1.33 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. During this stint, he has held a 29:8 K:BB and allowed just two home runs. In his first 15 innings (three starts), Canning held a 4.20 ERA with a 13:8 K:BB.
How has Canning been able to get his career back on track? The primary reason is that the Mets have had him rely on his slider more often. In 2024, Canning threw his slider 24.1% of the time (third-most used pitch). However, through the opening month of the 2025 season, Canning has used his slider 35.0% of the time, which is his most-used.
In 2024, Canning relied on his fastball 37.3% of the time, which was his undoing. This pitch generated a high .522 xSLG and .375 xwOBA and had a low 12.0% put-away rate. However, by using his slider more often, Canning does not have to show his fastball as much.
So far, his slider has generated an impressive 32.4% whiff rate and carries a .354 SLG and a .305 wOBA. A look under the hood suggests this pitch is due for some slight regression, as evident in the .412 xSLG and .318 xwOBA it has generated. Canning has also improved his fastball, which has generated an improved .281 xSLG and a .260 xwOBA.
A modified repertoire has gone a long way for the 29-year-old post-hype breakout.
Griffin Canning, Dirty 88mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/Uk1MUWOuLu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2025
Verdict: Overall, Canning sits in the 59th and 58th percentiles in xERA and xBA, which suggests regression will come later in the summer. He has also generated a high 48.3% hard-hit rate (11th percentile). While fantasy managers should not run to the waiver wire to add Canning like Gonsolin, his modified arsenal has allowed him to find some untapped potential.
However, his metrics suggest he will not be a bona fide lock-in starter going forward, but a valuable asset to deploy in favorable matchups.
JP Sears, Athletics
2025 Stats: 45 IP, 2.80 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, 1.00 WHIP, 19.9% K%
55% Rostered
The final pitcher we will analyze is JP Sears of the Athletics. Sears began his MLB career as a Yankee but was eventually shipped to Oakland during the 2022 season. In 2023 and 2024, Sears logged 353 innings with a modest 4.46 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He tallied 298 punchouts.
However, through his first 45 innings in 2025, the southpaw appears to have taken a significant step forward. Across eight starts, the left-hander has posted an impressive 2.80 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. He has struck out batters at a 19.9% rate and served up walks at a career-best 3.9% rate.
The most significant change Sears has made is increasing his reliance on his sweeper. In 2023 and 2024, Sears deployed his sweeper 19.3% and 24.9% of the time. In both seasons, it was his second-most-used pitch but well behind his four-seamer usage.
However, in 2025, Sears increased his sweeper usage to 33.1%, which is quite close to his four-seam usage of 39.8%.
In addition to relying on his sweeper more, the pitch itself has shown substantial improvement. In 2025, his sweeper has generated an elite .170 xBA, .225 xSLG, .199 xwOBA, and a 21.2% whiff rate. When relying on it less in 2024, this pitch held a .229 xBA, .402 xSLG, and a .290 xwOBA.
Seeing the 29-year-old not only lean on a pitch more but also find more success with it is a very promising sign. Sears has continued to show growth through the opening month. After allowing three runs in two of his first three starts, Sears has held a 1.93 ERA with a stellar 0.89 WHIP over his last 28 innings (five starts).
JP Sears, Dirty 81mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/JOF2yliKrD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2025
Verdict: Sears has made significant strides this season. While he may occasionally struggle at home playing in a minor league park, his solid metrics suggest he should continue to find success. He remains a solid streaming option in 12-team formats.
Fantasy managers should lean on the side of caution when deploying him at Sutter Health Park, as he has a 3.86 ERA there, compared to the 2.32 he has on the road. For now, he will be a strong option in 12-team formats when on the road, but it is best to leave him on your bench in difficult matchups in his home park.
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