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Kevin looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Matthew Liberatore, Grant Holmes, Gunnar Hoglund for real?
Six weeks into the fantasy baseball season, it's about time to start digging into the waiver wire to find some underrated pitchers who have started hot, who could provide you with a ton of sneaky value. However, fantasy managers still need to do their due diligence to figure out who's for real and who has that dreaded negative regression heading their way. Spotting it ahead of time can make or break your fantasy season.
In this piece, we will do a deep dive on three pitchers who have surprised many through the early part of the campaign: St. Louis Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes, and Athletics starter Gunnar Hoglund.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or are they fool's gold? Let's dive in!
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Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Stats: 41 IP, 3.07 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 0.951 WHIP, 23.8% K%
39% Rostered
It feels like it's been a long time coming for the Cardinals southpaw. After showing promise in the Tampa Bay Rays' minor league system, Liberatore was sent to St. Louis as part of the Randy Arozarena trade. He made his way up into the majors in 2022 and had been less than inspirational in his 182.1 IP before 2025. But this season, he's starting to get things together with a 3.07 ERA and a 2.98 xFIP in 41 IP.
Those numbers being so close together point to the fact that Liberatore is getting true results. And how he's getting there has been a remarkable improvement in two main areas: His walk rate and the overall success of his four-seamer.
Matthew Liberatore won a pitchers' duel yesterday!#ForTheLou x @NationalPro pic.twitter.com/mCqDloAbJC
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 7, 2025
Starting with walks, the 25-year-old has reduced his walk rate from 7.8 percent to 3.8 percent. He's gained more control every season he's pitched, as he started in 2022 with an 11.2 percent walk rate that has continually dropped. He ranked fairly average last season in walks, but the decrease this season puts him in the 94th percentile for walk rate. No freebies means more success.
Now moving onto his four-seamer. The dynamics of the pitch don't seem to have changed all that much, but how he's using it is getting him better results. Last season, his four-seamer had a .397 wOBA that went along with a .397 xwOBA, meaning it was getting punished and the results were true. This season, it's dropped to a .241 wOBA and a .229 xwOBA.
Part of what's happening is he's getting more grounders out of it, as hitters' average launch angle on the pitch has dropped from 20 degrees to 14 degrees. He's also using it as his main putaway pitch much more often. Last season, he got nine Ks on his four-seamer with a PutAway rate of just 12.5 percent. This season, he's already gotten 14 Ks with it on a 29.8 percent PutAway rate.
Matthew Liberatore's 6th and 7th Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/hATr2uDaZU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2025
Quite simply, he's fooling hitters more often, even though he's only throwing it slightly less than he did last season. He's also changed up some of his usage, making his cutter and sinker equivalent in usage, while his changeup and curveball round out his repertoire. But most of his success will come from his four-seamer and his slider.
Verdict:
At just 39 percent rostered, there's not much reason for Liberatore to be sitting out there freely on the waiver wire. Stats point toward his results this season being fairly true and there's not much pointing to him regressing to a striking degree. He's a safe add that will have some staying power on your roster going forward.
Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves
2025 Stats: 34 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 1.206 WHIP, 25.0% K%
41% Rostered
To start, do note that the numbers above reflect Holmes' stat line before his start against Cincinnati on Wednesday night. Secondly, I must point out how awesome the mullet and horseshoe mustache combo is. It's like we've got a 2020s version of Rod Beck out on the mound for the Braves every day.
Anyways, I digress. Holmes broke into the majors last season and picked up some starts late last season as the Braves faced injury issues. He found himself in a similar role this season by starting in the bullpen, but has made six straight starts since then (seven after Wednesday against Cincinnati) and is providing stability in Atlanta's rotation after losing Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez.
One great sign so far for Holmes is that he's generally going deeper into ballgames than he was last season. In 2024, you could expect him to go four or five innings deep for the most part. He only threw 90 pitches or more twice and got past the fifth inning just once. But he's getting stretched out further this season and has gotten at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts.
Grant Holmes, Dirty 86mph Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/s36PnW7gvt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2025
In terms of strikeouts, he's a bit all over the place but shows some potential. His strikeout percentage of 25 percent is on par with his 2024 numbers, though his game log is a bit sporadic (Nine Ks vs. L.A., four vs. Arizona, seven vs. Minnesota, four vs. Toronto).
His best pitches have clearly been his slider (.169 wOBA) and his curveball (.230 wOBA) as both have a whiff percentage above 30 percent. His four-seamer, though, is getting hit hard and has a .469 wOBA on the season. While he does have some positive regression coming for his four-seamer (.391 xwOBA), it won't make it a dominant pitch. His slider and curveball also have a bit of negative regression coming for them as well.
Grant Holmes just carved up 3 MVPs in the 1st inning pic.twitter.com/oNYFGQhAI9
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) May 2, 2025
In total, Holmes is posting a .297 wOBA with a .343 xwOBA. From a holistic perspective, the negative regression is going to hit him pretty hard shortly. His high walk rate of 13.6 percent, which puts him in the 10th percentile, isn't helping his cause, either.
Another big worry for Holmes is that his whiff percentage has dropped pretty significantly from season to season. In 2024, he got whiffs at a 32.4 percent rate, putting him in the 92nd percentile. This season, it's down to 24.1 percent, dropping him to the 44th percentile.
Those drops all correlate with his top three pitches, as hitters are seeing the four-seamer, slider, and curveball a bit better this season. But hitters are barreling him more this season (11.8 barrel percent vs. 6.7 percent in 2024), and that means it's all the more likely that hitters keep up with him more often.
Verdict:
At 41 percent rostered, it's not like Holmes doesn't currently deserve a spot on your roster. He's getting innings under his belt, and he's giving the Braves a chance to win night in and night out. But we're running dangerously close to the time when negative regression is going to hit him hard. He'll stay in the rotation for the time being, given Spencer Strider doesn't have a clear date for return yet, but fantasy managers need to take caution with Holmes going forward.
Gunnar Hoglund, Athletics
2025 Stats: 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.059 WHIP, 22.7% K%
34% Rostered
Note to the reader, this stat line does include Hoglund's start on Wednesday in which he had 5.1 IP, two ER, and three strikeouts against the Mariners. The 25-year-old made his MLB debut last week against the Marlins in a six-inning, seven-strikeout outing that any rookie would have loved to have.
Gunnar m*****f******* Hoglund was on one again today 😤
2800+ RPM Sweeper (Max 17 in. HB)
~2700 RPM Fastball (Avg. 19 in. IVB) ‼️Young arms like this show the depth this organization has to compete within the next few years
5.1 IP | 5 H | 1 R | 1 BB | 3 K
ERA down to 1.59! pic.twitter.com/E1WIRHMur5
— Baseball Unstitched Podcast (@BaseUnstitched) May 7, 2025
Hoglund ranks as the Athletics' No. 14 prospect. Most of his time was spent in Double-A last season, where he threw 104.2 of his 130.2 IP. In nearly 30 IP this season at Triple-A Las Vegas, Hoglund pitched to a 2.43 ERA with a 26.1% K%. In two starts, he's looking like he may just have what it takes to succeed at the major league level.
So far in his two starts, his dominant pitch has been his four-seamer, which he's throwing around 44 percent of the time. That's paired with a sinker, both of which come in around 94 mph. Though he didn't throw his sweeper much in his first start, the Mariners whiffed on it six times on Wednesday, giving him a 55 percent whiff rate on that pitch in his start.
Going forward, Hoglund is likely to rely on that pitch more alongside his changeup. Those three pitches should guide him throughout his stay in the majors.
1) Gunnar Hoglund - OAK
Hoglund made a statement in his debut on Friday as his stuff looked back to his former Top Prospect form. His high riding fastball and steep tumbling changeup give him a fantastic foundation to build upon with his plus command pic.twitter.com/tRAwBfW26j
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 4, 2025
As it stands now, it's much too early to judge him from two starts in the majors. But based off his stats in the minor leagues, we can start to project how he'll look going forward.
In 2024, he posted a 3.44 ERA and 4.33 xFIP at all levels in the minors. His 22.7 percent strikeout rate was paired with a 7 percent walk rate. Hitters posted just a .215 BA against him and he had just a 1.07 WHIP, strong numbers for any level.
In nearly 30 innings at Triple-A this season, he posted a 2.43 ERA with a 3.93 xFIP, telling us he likely outproduced his numbers, and negative regression would have been coming for him. His numbers from 2024 read pretty similarly in terms of the amount of negative regression we'd expect him to see.
In the minors, he posted a .250 BABIP in 2024 and a .288 BABIP in Triple-A this season. I'd align his Triple-A results as a little more true than his 2024 results, given that the BABIP comes in a little closer to .300 and that factor of luck is negated just a bit more.
Verdict:
As the league starts to adjust to Hoglund, I'd expect we see a bit of a drop, though he should still make a fine starter in the back of the A's rotation. Expect his strikeout percentage to stay in the low 20s while he keeps a walk percentage probably close to 8 or 9 percent. An ERA around 4.00 is probably what I would expect going forward, making him a solid streamer to fantasy managers, especially in the right matchup.
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