2020 Offseason Starting Pitcher Rankings (Part 3) - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues

We continue with our analysis of the early 2020 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings by looking at the middle tiers. To read part one, click right here, or right here for part two.

After a record-setting year for offense and a sense among the industry that 2020 likely won't be dramatically different, being able to navigate the ever-murkier waters of starting pitching will continue to be of prime importance. Looking at last year's earnings at the position, stark tiers quickly reveal themselves, with two players earning over $40, followed by five players who earned over $20, and 13 who earned over $10. That's only 20 pitchers total who earned double-digit dollars in 12-team leagues, followed by a big mess of players who didn't. Now that's what I call murky.

Now that we're through all the names you know, let's travel further down the list and take a look at some players in the lower tier and try and suss out where some value (and pitfalls) can be found.

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Starting Pitcher Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (January)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Ranking	Tier	Player	Pos	Nick Mariano	Nicklaus Gaut	Riley Mrack
1	1	Gerrit Cole	SP	8	7	11
2	1	Justin Verlander	SP	12	10	15
3	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	15	13	10
4	2	Max Scherzer	SP	14	18	19
5	2	Walker Buehler	SP	25	21	24
6	2	Jack Flaherty	SP	28	24	31
7	2	Shane Bieber	SP	27	31	36
8	2	Mike Clevinger	SP	39	25	33
9	2	Blake Snell	SP	40	26	41
10	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	29	36	46
11	2	Chris Sale	SP	34	49	37
12	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	43	41	49
13	3	Charlie Morton	SP	58	45	65
14	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	62	64	57
15	3	Luis Severino	SP	50	67	69
16	3	Zack Greinke	SP	53	83	52
17	3	Aaron Nola	SP	56	48	87
18	3	Luis Castillo	SP	47	59	91
19	3	Yu Darvish	SP	72	61	64
20	3	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	76	77	54
21	3	Tyler Glasnow	SP	84	74	66
22	3	Lucas Giolito	SP	59	99	72
23	3	James Paxton	SP	91	70	70
24	4	Shohei Ohtani	DH/SP	74	68	100
25	4	Chris Paddack	SP	95	95	73
26	4	Corey Kluber	SP	64	126	77
27	4	Noah Syndergaard	SP	78	110	94
28	4	Jose Berrios	SP	83	118	99
29	4	Brandon Woodruff	SP	116	102	103
30	4	Mike Soroka	SP	119	133	79
31	4	Carlos Carrasco	SP	131	106	112
32	4	Dinelson Lamet	SP	154	91	118
33	5	Trevor Bauer	SP	132	144	114
34	5	Zac Gallen	SP	122	146	123
35	5	Sonny Gray	SP	139	159	96
36	5	Madison Bumgarner	SP	137	165	119
37	5	Frankie Montas	SP/RP	158	124	145
38	5	David Price	SP	134	172	132
39	5	Max Fried	SP	155	128	159
40	5	Lance Lynn	SP	128	136	186
41	5	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	126	162	188
42	5	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	152	175	163
43	5	Jesus Luzardo	SP	165	153	173
44	5	Robbie Ray	SP	167	194	138
45	5	Zack Wheeler	SP	168	201	134
46	6	Mike Minor	SP	157	206	157
47	6	Carlos Martinez	SP/RP	188	196	150
48	6	Kyle Hendricks	SP	161	198	179
49	6	Matthew Boyd	SP	171	178	194
50	6	Caleb Smith	SP	176	184	183
51	6	Domingo German	SP	187	190	167
52	6	Sean Manaea	SP	166	182	198
53	6	Marcus Stroman	SP	169	227	169
54	6	Luke Weaver	SP	179	223	174
55	6	Julio Urias	SP/RP	184	187	210
56	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	189	155	240
57	6	German Marquez	SP	191	217	189
58	6	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	210	243	175
59	7	Dustin May	SP	221	211	212
60	7	Lance McCullers Jr.	SP	213	208	251
61	7	Kenta Maeda	SP/RP	235	234	206
62	7	Cole Hamels	SP	229	277	170
63	7	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	231	203	258
64	7	Jose Urquidy	SP	211	246	264
65	7	Miles Mikolas	SP	263	260	199
66	7	Jake Odorizzi	SP	223	267	235
67	7	Brendan McKay	SP	247	238	243
68	7	Dallas Keuchel	SP	245	282	217
69	8	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	254	241	296
70	8	Dylan Cease	SP	240	#N/A	304
71	8	Dakota Hudson	SP	297	#N/A	250
72	8	Griffin Canning	SP	246	262	318
73	8	Michael Kopech	SP	268	250	313
74	8	Joey Lucchesi	SP	294	292	255
75	8	Mike Fiers	SP	269	271	311
76	8	John Means	SP	360	294	204
77	8	Jon Gray	SP	282	#N/A	294
78	8	Joe Musgrove	SP	327	#N/A	252
79	8	A.J. Puk	SP	334	#N/A	249
80	8	Yonny Chirinos	SP	367	284	227
81	9	Zach Plesac	SP	293	297	298
82	9	Garrett Richards	SP	298	299	#N/A
83	9	Jose Quintana	SP	228	296	372
84	9	Steven Matz	SP	258	264	376
85	9	Mitch Keller	SP	283	291	324
86	9	Ross Stripling	SP/RP	295	276	335
87	9	Chris Archer	SP	276	279	353
88	9	Rich Hill	SP	296	269	347
89	9	Anibal Sanchez	SP	277	289	348
90	9	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	308	#N/A	#N/A
91	9	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	312	#N/A	309
92	9	Nate Pearson	SP	373	256	#N/A
93	10	Chad Green	SP/RP	322	288	352
94	10	Homer Bailey	SP	326	#N/A	#N/A
95	10	Jon Lester	SP	375	#N/A	281
96	10	Brent Honeywell Jr.	SP	#N/A	#N/A	331
97	10	Adrian Houser	SP	356	#N/A	308
98	10	Nathan Eovaldi	SP/RP	447	#N/A	224
99	10	Pablo Lopez	SP	355	#N/A	320
100	10	Sandy Alcantara	SP	380	#N/A	305
101	10	Casey Mize	SP	350	#N/A	340
102	10	MacKenzie Gore	SP	392	#N/A	299
103	10	Jordan Lyles	SP	390	#N/A	303
104	10	Jeff Samardzija	SP	412	#N/A	286
105	10	Ian Anderson	SP	353	#N/A	#N/A
106	10	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	389	#N/A	321
107	10	Wade Miley	SP	381	#N/A	329
108	10	Johnny Cueto	SP	357	#N/A	#N/A
109	10	Forrest Whitley	SP	358	#N/A	#N/A
110	10	Tyler Mahle	SP	362	#N/A	#N/A
111	10	Merrill Kelly	SP	370	#N/A	358
112	11	Cal Quantrill	SP	371	#N/A	#N/A
113	11	Alex Young	SP	453	#N/A	289
114	11	Josh Lindblom	SP	385	#N/A	364
115	11	Julio Teheran	SP	384	#N/A	366
116	11	J.A. Happ	SP	377	#N/A	375
117	11	Jordan Yamamoto	SP	376	#N/A	#N/A
118	11	Jakob Junis	SP	383	#N/A	#N/A
119	11	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	428	#N/A	342
120	11	Aaron Civale	SP	491	285	#N/A
121	11	Sixto Sanchez	SP	391	#N/A	#N/A
122	11	Michael Pineda	SP	413	#N/A	370
123	11	Marco Gonzales	SP	393	#N/A	#N/A
124	11	Trevor Richards	SP/RP	433	#N/A	360
125	11	Kyle Gibson	SP	457	#N/A	337
126	11	Rick Porcello	SP	399	#N/A	#N/A
127	12	Alex Wood	SP	401	#N/A	#N/A
128	12	Freddy Peralta	SP/RP	402	#N/A	#N/A
129	12	Matt Manning	SP	407	#N/A	#N/A
130	12	Zach Eflin	SP	490	#N/A	330
131	12	Deivi Garcia	SP	410	#N/A	#N/A
132	12	Drew Pomeranz	SP/RP	415	#N/A	#N/A
133	12	Randy Dobnak	SP/RP	421	#N/A	#N/A
134	12	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	513	#N/A	336
135	12	Logan Webb	SP	429	#N/A	#N/A
136	12	Anthony Kay	SP	430	#N/A	#N/A
137	12	Tyler Beede	SP	439	#N/A	#N/A
138	12	Kolby Allard	SP	441	#N/A	#N/A
139	12	Brad Keller	SP	444	#N/A	#N/A
140	12	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	445	#N/A	#N/A
141	12	Adam Wainwright	SP	452	#N/A	#N/A
142	12	Chase Anderson	SP	455	#N/A	#N/A
143	12	Joe Ross	SP	456	#N/A	#N/A
144	12	Dylan Bundy	SP	458	#N/A	#N/A
145	13	Jose Urena	SP	460	#N/A	#N/A
146	13	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	463	#N/A	#N/A
147	13	Jake Arrieta	SP	464	#N/A	#N/A
148	13	Drew Smyly	SP	467	#N/A	#N/A
149	13	Spencer Turnbull	SP	471	#N/A	#N/A
150	13	Collin McHugh	SP/RP	473	#N/A	#N/A
151	13	Andrew Cashner	RP/SP	477	#N/A	#N/A
152	13	Trevor Williams	SP	478	#N/A	#N/A
153	13	Chris Bassitt	SP	481	#N/A	#N/A
154	13	Vince Velasquez	SP	483	#N/A	#N/A
155	13	Michael Fulmer	SP	484	#N/A	#N/A
156	13	Jose Suarez	SP	485	#N/A	#N/A
157	13	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	489	#N/A	#N/A
158	13	Asher Wojciechowski	SP/RP	495	#N/A	#N/A
159	13	Martin Perez	SP	499	#N/A	#N/A
160	13	Eric Lauer	SP	500	#N/A	#N/A
161	13	Kevin Gausman	SP	502	#N/A	#N/A
162	13	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	503	#N/A	#N/A
163	13	Tanner Roark	SP	506	#N/A	#N/A
164	13	Mike Leake	SP	507	#N/A	#N/A
165	13	Tony Gonsolin	SP	508	#N/A	#N/A
166	13	Taijuan Walker	SP	510	#N/A	#N/A
167	13	Elieser Hernandez	SP/RP	515	#N/A	#N/A
168	13	Gio Gonzalez	SP	516	#N/A	#N/A
169	13	Ivan Nova	SP	517	#N/A	#N/A
170	13	Zach Davies	SP	519	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier Seven

I felt a lot more comfortable ranking Lance McCullers Jr. at #208 before (former) Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow intimated at the Winter Meeting that McCullers would likely be capped around 120 innings. The skills I can believe in but McCullers will have to be awful good to earn his current 192 ADP, currently priced as the #57 starter. Steamer projects him for a 25.6% K-rate, 1.29 WHIP, with a 3.78 ERA and those numbers might be playable at the 156 innings they're also projecting. However, only likely to get the aforementioned 120 innings, I just don't think I'll be finding my way to McCullers in too many drafts.

Perhaps it's never a good idea to trust any Dodgers starter besides Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler when it comes to staying in starting rotation all year but I somehow like Kenta Maeda's chances to do so in 2020. For one, he's already penciled in as the third starter according to RosterResource, with perennially injured Alex Wood and perennially the next-big-thing, Julio Urias, behind him. Maeda only had a 4.04 ERA over 152.2 innings in 2019 but that came with a more than serviceable 27.1 K-rate and a 1.01 WHIP. However, Maeda's biggest talent may be his ability to limit hard contact, as his 28.8% hard-hit rate was in the top-5% of baseball, according to Baseball Savant.

Are we all definitely sure that Cole Hamels is still good? The Atlanta Braves think so, giving Hamels $18 million to pitch in 2020 for them, but it looks like I don't, having given Hamels the lowest ranking out of we, the RotoBaller Three. Hamels had a 3.81 ERA in 2019, a year after posting a 3.78 ERA in 2017. Okay, that's not horrible, I guess? However, he posted a 4.55 SIERA along with the ERA, with a 1.39 WHIP that was the highest of his career, and it all came with Hamel's same-old 23% K-rate. Combining those lackluster numbers with a 40.5% Hard-hit rate, 7.6% Barrel-rate, and an 89.2 average exit-velocity (all career-highs), I'm not finding many reasons for wanting to roster Hamels, even at his current 258 ADP in NFBC leagues.

 

Tier Eight

One of my favorite pitchers in 2020 is obviously...Seth Lugo? Oh, you don't know about Seth Lugo? Well, maybe you should, because Lugo just pitched  101 innings for the second-straight year and finished with a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 33.1% K-rate. What about those peripherals, you may ask? Lugo backed that 2.70 ERA with a 2.70 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, and a 2.78 SIERA, while his four-seamer went from a 10.9% SwStr% to a 13.5% SwStr% and his two-seamer went from 6.3% to 8.9%.

The fastballs kept the same shape and speed from previous years but it may have been the changes to his release points along with subtle changes to his curveball that really helped his other pitches take off. Lugo spun his hook with greater authority by adding 110 RPM, an extra inch of horizontal break, and almost three more inches of drop on the vertical plane, according to Baseball Savant.

The curveball was an even nastier put-away pitch for Lugo - going from a 25.7% K-rate on the pitch to a 32.9% K-rate - but the biggest effect it may have had was on his sinker. The vertical and horizontal release points on both pitches have changed since 2018 - and from the beginning of 2019 -  with the sinker's vertical location dropping, while raising up his curveball slightly.

The subtle changes led to two pitches that began tunneling in greater synchronicity and may have been the reason that his sinker went from a .288 batting average against and a 9.5% K-rate in 2018; to a .169 batting average and 31% K-rate in 2019, while also raising it's groundball rate 14-points, to 48.8%. For me, any saves that Lugo may get if Edwin Diaz blows up again, are pure gravy because I'm here for the 100 innings of 30% K-rates and a sub-1.oo WHIP.

It's easy to see that I'm not a big believer in Dylan Cease, as I'm the only one of us to rank him outside of our top-300. He ended the season strong, allowing just one run in each of his last three starts while striking out 17 in 14.1 innings, but had only two other starts in 2019 where he didn't give up at least three runs. The rookie's slider was certainly a bit of filth and had a 34.3 whiff-rate but the fastball was dirty. Not dirty, as in filthy; but dirty as in trashy, finishing with a .356 batting average against it, a .637 SLG, and a .454 wOBA. It may sit in the mid-'90s but until Cease can control it better and stop letting batters smash it so much, then the plus-slider isn't going to do him much good.

We're updating our overall ranking constantly here and Oakland's A.J. Puk is one player who has moved up dramatically for me since the end of the season. I currently have him sitting at #248 overall, as I've become more confident in his chances of starting, even though his innings will likely be managed, whether by spending time in the bullpen or being shut down prematurely. Roster Resource currently has him starting in the bullpen but ahead of him on the depth chart is a mess of pitchers with shaky performances and/or a long history of injuries, in Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt. Even if he doesn't start that much, the A's will make sure and get Puk the innings he needs for his development, one way or another. Much like Lugo before him, I think I'm going to get plenty of innings with a near 30% K-rate, with a 259 ADP in NFBC leagues that is more than palatable.

 

Tier Nine

Let's keep the theme going, shall we? I know that Ross Stripling isn't currently in the Dodger's rotation and he might not spend any time at all starting for Los Angeles in 2020, but I believe in Stripling the pitcher and believe the Dodgers do too. In other words, I think he's going to get his innings, regardless of role. The 25%+ K-rate and 3.50 ERA are nice but what I really like is the price, with Stripling currently carrying a 306 ADP in NFBC. That's a pretty low cost for a high-innings reliever who has above-average stats and a chance at starting for one of baseball's best teams.

I know I'm not alone in being unable to quit the constantly injured, Garrett Richards, who is apparently not currently injured and ended his 2019 on the mound for the San Diego Padres, with eight innings that weren't that impressive. However, the velocity was mostly back - averaging 95.2 mph - and Richards still had his nasty slider; a pitch that has a 19.3% SwStr% and a 46.3% K-rate in 2018. Richards will inevitably have a season-ending injury but with a 282 ADP, I'm willing to ride him until he does.

If Toronto had a spot open in their rotation, Nate Pearson would be a lot higher for me, after the right-hander spent 2019 dominating the minor leagues. Pearson is a 6-foot-6 flamethrower who sits in the high-90s, frequently reaches triple-digits, and can hit 104 mph, pairing his heater with a hard-biting, devastating slider that is thrown around 89-92 mph. He also features an average curveball that can be thrown for strikes and a changeup that's still a work in progress. However, after the offseason signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Shun Yamaguchi, there doesn't seem to be much room for Pearson to squeeze in. Roster Resource currently projects a rotation of Ryu, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, and Ryan Borucki; with Yamaguchi and Trent Thornton also possibilities. That isn't a group that has a long track record of health and/or success, however, so if Pearson continues to mow through the minors, expect the 23-year-old to make his debut sometime in 2020.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice