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New England Patriots WR Jordan Matthews is a sleeper and draft day ADP value for 2018 fantasy football leagues. Jason Katz explains why Matthews is a player to target in redraft leagues.
I thought Jordan Matthews had sleeper appeal even before Julian Edelman was caught cheating. While Matthews' ADP has risen a bit, by no means is he costly. I know it's been a while was Matthews was "good," but hear me out. He didn't suddenly forget how to football.
Matthews has an impressive college resume. He's only the most productive WR in SEC history. And he did so at Vanderbilt. It is why no one should've been surprised when he was immediately productive as a rookie in Philly. Matthews caught eight touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons and was a popular breakout candidate in 2016. Unfortunately, he was held back by injury and we've recently learned that the Eagles botched Matthews' recovery, essentially ruining two full seasons of his career.
After a second consecutive lost season, Matthews found his way to New England on a very cheap contract. The Patriots had just traded Brandin Cooks and we've recently learned that Julian Edelman won't be around for the first four games. In terms of opportunity, it is there in spades for the 91st percentile SPARQ-x athlete. Between Cooks, Danny Amendola, and Dion Lewis, the Patriots have 235 vacated targets. Even if we give all of Lewis' targets to Sony Michel, that's 200 targets there for the taking.
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There are a number of ways Matthews can end up being a screaming value late in fantasy drafts. As long as he's healthy, I see no reason why he wouldn't start in two WR sets alongside Chris Hogan. Tom Brady can certainly support three fantasy viable WRs when Edelman comes back, but for the first four weeks, we only need him to support two. Matthews could be operating as the primary slot receiver for the first quarter of the season. That alone is enough to make Matthews worth the pick. If you can get a WR2 for four weeks, even if you subsequently drop him, it was worth it.
What happens if Matthews performs so well that the Patriots can't take him off the field? What if Brady likes him? What if Edelman comes back and the 32-year-old WR coming off a torn ACL that relies on lateral agility to succeed is just finished? There are too many realistic paths to significant playing time and opportunity for Matthews for him to go largely ignored in fantasy drafts. In the latter rounds of your draft, you don't want high-floor, low-ceiling guys and you don't want extreme long shots. You want players with situations just like Jordan Matthews - low floor, and not just a high ceiling, but multiple ways in which he can approach that ceiling.
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