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Those who were big into fantasy football analysis this time last year heard far-off whispers that Travis Kelce might be the next big tight end to make a fantasy impact. This year, those whispers have turned into full-on roars from the tops of tall buildings. Kelce not only has the size and athleticism to play like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, but his opportunity for Gronk-like targets is increasing as well.
In 2014, Kelce reeled in 67 catches that resulted in 862 yards and five touchdowns. Although those stats are not exactly gawk-worthy, he did so after a slow start and while battling injuries. The 6’5”, 255 lb. versatile tight end (who is working on getting bigger this offseason, by the way) finished ninth in fantasy points (sixth in PPR) among tight ends last year.
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Kelce’s 87 targets in 11 games started were second on the Chiefs to Dwayne Bowe’s 96 in 15. Regardless, Bowe is no longer on the team, thus opening up more chances for Kelce. Along with those opportunity-presenting facts, it’s fairly well-known that Alex Smith doesn’t throw the ball downfield often, if at all. If it holds true this year, that bodes extremely well for Kelce, who will certainly benefit from check down passes and designed screen plays.
Smith is working to throw deep more often in the upcoming year, and with the addition of Jeremy Maclin to the Chiefs receiving core, Kansas City would certainly be wasting talent if they didn't air it out more in 2015. If Smith's throws begin to travel deeper more often, it might not seem to benefit Kelce directly. However, it would take away some coverage over time and certainly open up some holes in the middle of the field for Kelce to find.
When breaking down tight ends by fantasy points-per-touch, NFL.com writer Michael Fabiano ranked Kelce sixth overall with a 1.73 PPT average. Kelce's potential for a huge season in 2015 is strongly linked to the fact that Anthony Fasano is no longer with the team. As an every down player, Kelce should be able to raise his 67 catches from last year substantially. If he can maintain his excellent PPT, we're looking at a top 5 fantasy tight end in the making.
If he can stay healthy, Kelce should exceed 100 targets, and he has the yards-after-catch capability to pile up over 1,000 receiving yards. Because of his strong hands and big body, he is almost guaranteed to get a couple more goal line touchdowns as well. Although he is far riskier than the likes of Gronkowski, Graham, and even Greg Olsen, it would not surprise me to see Kelce in that top 5 group of names once the dust settles on the 2015-2016 season.
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