Week 7 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

Welcome to Week 7 of NFL and fantasy football action, RotoBallers. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 7 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should hopefully help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.

 

Jets @ Patriots - Thursday 10/16 @ 8:25 EST

Matchups We Love

Rob Gronkowski - The Jets defense has been worst right in the center, where their primary coverage linebackers have allowed 316 yards and three touchdowns to players in their coverage. In recent weeks, they've been killed by Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas, Eric Ebron and Martellus Bennett. Gronkowski should be in every lineup.

Chris Ivory - The Patriots front seven hasn't been a great run-stopping defense. It's very much beatable, and Chris Ivory in particular spent last season feasting on the Patriots. The Jets will be depending on Ivory for their offense to move, so he should see work early and often.

Patriots Defense - As a Jets fan, this pains me greatly, but the Patriots defense is among the best in the league. Darrelle Revis is likely to shut down the only consistent passing option on the Jets, and Chandler Jones might have his way with the offensive line. It could be a bloodbath, and being in Foxboro only makes it a better matchup for the Patriots defense.

Tom Brady - Brady's up against one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and he's at home. I'm still not sure which Brady will show up in a given week, but this should be a positive matchup for Brady-- that is, as long as he isn't get hit.

Matchups We Hate

Eric Decker - Darrelle Revis, one of the best corners in the league, will be covering Decker on Thursday. He's yet to allow more than 60 yards in a game.

Notable Matchups

Jeremy Kerley - This is a weird one, but Brandon Browner struggles with small, shifty cornerbacks. If you're especially desperate in deep leagues and the Jets are smart enough to get Kerley matched up with Browner, this is a chance for him to put together a decent showing. It's a tough one to buy into, but it's there.

Shane Vereen - The Jets run defense got gashed the last two weeks, but it's not something I expect will continue. Vereen, however, is just the type of back who could put together a decent outing against the Jets, especially when adding in the terrible linebacker coverage the Jets have had. He's a bit of a risky play, but in PPR leagues he should have a decent six-point floor to stand on.

Julian Edelman - Jets outside cornerbacks have allowed over 600 yards and three TDs, and Edelman has begun regaining his old form with last week's showing. The only thing keeping him from the "Matchups We Love" section is that this is a week where Gronkowski might steal the show.
 

Falcons @ Ravens - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Matt Ryan - Outside of starter Jimmy Smith, the Ravens defensive backs have all been exposed as major weak points. It's made sweeter for Ryan when you consider that the Baltimore run defense happens to be among the league's top eight in limiting yards. This should force Atlanta to abandon their already poor running game in favor of the pass.

Joe Flacco - Just like the Ravens defense, outside of starter Desmond Trufant, not a single Falcons cornerback has been playing well, but then neither has anyone else on the Falcons. While Flacco will have great throwing lanes all game long and should maintain the low-end QB1 status he's been able to establish, it should be another Raven that's going to be feasting on the Falcons defense.

Justin Forsett - The Falcons are amongst the league's worst at stopping running backs. Whether it's yardage, DVOA, PFF Grades, whatever, the Falcons (with exception to two members of the front seven) have been unable to handle any player with the ball in their hands. There's more to it, too, since they've been amongst the league's worst at stopping pass-catching running backs, with starting middle linebacker Paul Worrilow allowing 272 receiving yards into his coverage. The Falcons defense has been averaging eight passes thrown with 60 yards allowed to running backs per game.

Matchups We Hate

Falcons Defense and Ravens Defense - Just don't bother-- there's too much firepower going into this game for either of these to realistically have a chance of producing more than 6.0 points.

Steven Jackson - The Ravens run defense has been amongst the league's best this year. This should be the Matt Ryan Show, with little room for Jackson. As for Antoine Smith, he's been a real luck-based play week-to-week, and this week won't change that.

Notable Players

Julio Jones and Steve Smith - Two starting WR1s on two different teams; two players that will spend most of the game matched up against the opposing teams only competent cornerback. There's no reason to bench either player, but it's hard to predict that either one will be going off. As much as this game looks like a shootout on paper, we've seen these kinds of matchups become about one team trying to eat the clock to keep the ball out of their opponent's hands. Smith and Julio should be good starters, but a 20-point performance from either would require the game getting out of hand.
 

Titans @ Redskins - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson - #1 receivers are averaging 92 yards a game against the Titans. The Titans outside corners have given up 835 yards and three TDs when the ball is caught in their coverage. That's an average of 139 yards and 0.5 TDs per from these two players alone. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson will thrive against this defense.

Kirk Cousins - Same as above, there's nothing stopping Cousins from beating up on the Titans defense, almost literally. The Titans struggle covering every single position on the offense, and they should provide Cousins with plenty of opportunity to go wild.

Alfred Morris - Speaking of Washington players running wild, there is only a single player on the Titans front seven with a positive run defense grade (PFF) for the Titans. It's been a difficult ride for Morris owners, who've had to deal with consistently tough run matchups (five out of six of Morris's matchups thus far have been against run defenses that rank in the top 12 in most advanced metrics), but now is the time to buy low and get a future sell-high. The Redskins are looking at four straight weeks of great matchups (although the Cowboys one has some variance to it), until they face the 49ers. If you're a real fan of wheeling and dealing, buy Morris now and sell Morris in three weeks when he re-enters the difficult portion of his schedule.

Delanie Walker - Not a single player on the Redskins defense who would be tasked with covering a tight end has a positive grade on PFF for pass coverage. Walker has a really positive matchup, especially when considering Whitehurst's tendency to seek the checkdown. It wouldn't be surprising for Walker to lead the Titans in receptions, catches, yards and touchdowns this game.

Matchups We Hate

Titans Defense - There's nothing good going on here. Outside of Jurrell Casey and Rob Pitoitua, the Titans defense has been a mess of inconsistency; they've been dragged down by consistently poor play from week to week on many different fronts.

Notable Matchups

Justin Hunter - There's serious appeal in Hunter this week. Both teams have horrible defenses. The Titans, however, face a defense that's actually been able to handle the run on occasion. With the Titans run game sputtering and Sankey still being essentially redshirted, Hunter's about to face off against a defense with few answers for him, and that is going to force the Titans to throw. Not a single player in the back end of this defense has been good in coverage, and as long as the ball can get to Hunter's hands, he should be having a feast.
 

Seahawks @ Rams - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Russell Wilson - The Rams passing defense is lacking. The net effect of a pass rush that's noticeably diminished from last year has been the victimization of the Rams cornerbacks. Unfortunately, Wilson's targets are usually spread out and hard to figure out on a week-to-week basis.

Jared Cook - This is a weird one to see here, I'm sure, but follow me: the Seahawks outside coverage is the best in the league, but their inside coverage is pedestrian-- good enough to maybe get by, but compared to the outside, it looks wide open. In their recent matchups, they've dealt with big athletic tight ends, and they allowed two TDs and 64 yards to Julius Thomas, three TDs and 96 yards to Antonio Gates, and one TD and 24 yards to Jason Witten. Basically, they can't cover tight ends well in the end zone, and because of the strength on the outside, QBs are naturally forced to throw to the TEs.

Matchups We Hate

Austin Davis - I wasn't sure whether I really wanted to say Austin Davis was done before his day began, but in the end, regardless of Cook's great matchup, I find it hard to believe that Davis will do better than two TDs without throwing two or three picks along the way. His receivers aren't listed here, but only because it's hard to imagine that they'll get completely shut out at home.

Zac Stacy, Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason - The Seahawks run defense, despite being mollywhopped by the Cowboys offensive line and Demarco Murray, is still an elite run defense. The Rams are a far cry from the amount of run talent that the Cowboys have, so it's unlikely that any of these performers can do very much-- they're basically all entirely touchdown-dependent.

Notable Players

Seahawks Defense - They're not at home, so it's not an automatic bonus of a matchup, but at least the Rams aren't much more than competent on offense. I'd be willing to bet on the defense before I bet against them this week.

Brian Quick - Here's another player that I'm not sure what to do with. Cook's going to catch some passes, but how much will really be left over for Quick? I don't feel safe playing Quick over any other WR2, and would only feel somewhat comfortable putting him in at FLEX.

Marshawn Lynch - The Rams have improved against the run week by week, and it's getting to the point where they're more of a neutral matchup than a positive one. It's not helping that their coverage has them averaging only 26 yards per game to RBs. Lynch is doubtful to lose much value, but he's not exactly in a prime position.
 

Browns @ Jaguars - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Allen Robinson - The Cleveland Browns have been making it easy for quarterbacks to hit their WR1s all season long. Joe Haden is going through the worst season of his career, and QBs have had the sixth-easiest time throwing on him versus other CBs, according to Football Outsiders. Robinson is a big, strong, monster of a player who's looking at a game where he can potentially break out.

Jordan Cameron - The main coverage LBs for the Jaguars have allowed a combined 300+ yards and two TDs to tight ends. Although that comes after having faced some great tight end talent, Cameron belongs among those elites-- he should be looking at a promising game.

Matchups We Hate

Jaguars Defense - The Browns offense has been a well-oiled machine for the first time in a long time. There;s no reason to think you should start the Jags defense this week.

Any Jaguars Running Back - Bad offensive line, bad defense, but a slowly improving offense. Still, it's unlikely that there's enough opportunity for the Jaguars to get any actual value out of Storm Johnson, Denard Robinson or Toby Gerhart.

Notable Players

Blake Bortles - He's yet to have a good fantasy game, but this week has the potential to change that. The Browns defense is at the bottom of the league on FO and PFF, as well as on passing yardage allowed. It's still hard to say Bortles is startable, but he's a reluctant streaming option with mid-QB2 potential.

Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell - The Jacksonville defense has been decent against the run all season long (surprisingly), but they've yet to face a rushing attack like Ben Tate and Crowell. Two great backs on their own, they also have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league ahead of them. Both are worth starting consideration, with Tate of course sitting at RB2, but Crowell's well deserving of a FLEX spot.

Andrew Hawkins - The Jaguars coverage in the slot is among the worst in the league. There's ample opportunity here for Hawkins to bounce back after a bad week, but then again, there's also the chance the Browns don't need to throw very much in this one.
 

Bengals @ Colts - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Ahmad Bradshaw - There're plenty of reasons to love Bradshaw: he has the most red zone targets of any RB in the league, the Bengals run defense has been in a downward spiral, the Colts like scoring and they drive the ball a lot. Cincinnati's weakest point in coverage is against pass-catching running backs. This is another RB1 week for Bradshaw.

Dwayne Allen - Like Bradshaw, Allen's going to benefit from the weak coverage in the Bengals linebacker corps . In their last two games, the Bengals have seen themselves routed by tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen. Although these tight ends are a step above Allen, Luck is a quarterback who can get the ball to him.

Andrew Luck - Speaking of Luck, he has reached the Rodgers territory, where as long as the opponent can put up a decent competition, he's likely to put up monster points.

Giovani Bernard - Indianapolis linebackers can't cover, plain and simple. The Colts are the league's easiest and second-easiest opponents to throw against for TEs and RBs, respectively. Their run defense has only two or three players that even seem like they should be allowed to play on rushing downs. Jeremy Hill and Bernard could and should both find themselves amongst the top 24 RBs, especially if Green remains out.

Matchups We Hate

Mohamed Sanu - Last week, he came up big as everyone's favorite random receiver to put up a huge game. Unfortunately, last week he was also up against what should finish as one of the five worst passing defenses in the league. The Colts have tougher against WRs, preventing all #1 WRs from breaking 60 yards in any game this season.

Bengals Defense and Colts Defense - This is a game that should see six touchdowns scored, minimum. There's a chance that all of that comes from Andrew Luck, but is there really a reason to doubt that the Bengals offense should score at least twice? The only good part of it is that both Greg Toler and Vontae Davis are ball-hawky enough to potentially pick something and take it to the house. Both are still huge risks in my mind.

Notable Players

T.Y. Hilton - Hilton's in a very neutral matchup this week, but with the ridiculous amount of targets he has on the season, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll perform. A definite start.

Trent Richardson - He's going to find his way to get touches every week. The Bengals run defense is weak enough that he might even find value in doing so again this week.
 

Vikings @ Bills - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Bills Defense - The Vikings offensive line is horrible. The Bills pass rush is among the best in the league, if not the actual all-around best. The Bills are unlikely to put together the game that Detroit's defense had against the Vikings, but at home with an ability to smother the run and some great pass rushing, they've got the opportunity to do so.

Matchups We Hate

Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon - The Bills are allowing the league's fewest YPC and YPG to opposing running backs. The Vikings don't have an offensive line that can handle this.

Teddy Bridgewater - A strong opportunity to finish with more picks than TDs awaits Bridgewater again, as he stands behind one of the league's worst offensive lines and lacks the dependable WRs that could mitigate against that.

Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller - The Vikings run defense has been playing decently this season, but the Bills run blocking has been horrible. It's very likely that Jackson and Spiller have another week where they're touchdown-dependent-- Spiller is even more of a risk more, since he's losing snaps weekly.

Notable Players

Cordarrelle Patterson - Like the first week of the season, the best way to neutralize a top pass rush is quick throws. Patterson should be excelling at those, but has lacked the ability to do so throughout the season. Still, if desperate, Patterson has a decent FLEX play matchup.
 

Dolphins @ Bears - Sunday 10/19 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery - The Dolphins are very beatable by air. Brent Grimes is not the shutdown corner of last year, having allowed 250 yards and a two TDs in five weeks, and on the opposite side, Cortland Finnegan has allowed 150 yards on his own. That comes with having faced very little WR talent outside of the Packers (their schedule so far has included the Patriots, the Bills, Kansas City and Oakland). It would be surprising if neither of these two wideouts put up big numbers this week, and even more surprising if Cutler failed to hit three touchdown passes.

Matchups We Hate

Dolphins Defense - For the reasons above, there's no way  that I could be convinced that the Dolphins defense is a good play this week.

Notable Players

Lamar Miller - Now the de facto back with Knowshon injured, Miller's going against a middling run defense that has been a little better than average dealing with pass-catching running backs. He's an RB2 for this weekend.

Mike Wallace - Despite facing some decent competition, Wallace has managed to be an every-week starter. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to get much in terms of yardage, and he's been very touchdown-dependent. Fortunately for his owners, though, Wallace is facing a neutral matchup, and he might have the benefit of matching up against the rookie Fuller a few times, who's been inconsistent. Wallace is a mid WR2 this week.

Matt Forte - Forte currently leads the league in receptions. That's amazing. The Dolphins have not been good covering pass-catching running backs, but they have been very good against the run. PFF and FO both have them among the top eight run defenses, but the Bears also have one of the best run-blocking lines in the league. To me, that neutralizes the matchup, at least in standard formats. PPR or not though, Forte's unlikely to fall out of his RB1 status this week.