RADIO
With seven weeks of the NFL season in the books, it is now time to focus our attention on Week 8 and determine what fantasy defenses are best to play this week. We go from six teams on bye in Week 7 to the rare mid-season week with no byes, so there are plenty of streaming options this week. Week 7 ended up being a solid week for fantasy defenses with eight scoring double-digits and 11 with at least nine points. But it lacked a week-winning performance (20+ points).
The biggest surprise was the Bears finishing as the highest-scoring unit. The Bears have been better as of late. After scoring three total fantasy points over the first four games, they scored 37 points over the last three. Most of the other double-digit DSTs were not surprising in name, but multiple top-tier defenses came through in tough matchups. The Ravens were the DST3 against the Lions (sixth-toughest matchup). The Dolphins were the DST5 against the Eagles, and the Eagles and Chiefs tied as the DST7 against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This provides confidence in all of these DSTs moving forward.
We also saw multiple disappointing outcomes for some of last week’s popular streamers. I fielded a lot of questions about the Raiders' defense, with many thinking they should have been ranked higher for Week 7 with a matchup against the Bears. But one of my general concerns with streaming defenses came to fruition. Too much confidence in a mediocre defense due to a matchup can get us in trouble, and that happened with the Raiders in Week 7. Equally as surprising as the Bears leading the week were the Bills who tied for the second-lowest fantasy points in what looked like a smash matchup with the Patriots. It does support the notion that divisional games can be volatile and unpredictable. We just have to accept that risk going into it. Multiple other lesser-rostered streamers had solid weeks, including the Falcons, Commanders, Seahawks, and Jaguars.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but as stated above, the top ones from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders' DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points.
But if the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) is negative seven. Team B’s POA is plus four. I assign a weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. That is why I had the Browns and Eagles ranked higher than the Raiders in Week 7, even though on paper, the Raiders had a softer opponent. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause several turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
Baltimore Ravens DST @ ARI
Yahoo Rostership%: 85%
Vegas Odds: BAL -8.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 44
Implied points against: 17.8
The Ravens' defense turned in an impressive fantasy outing in Week 7 against one of the tougher DST matchups. The Lions enter Week 8 as the sixth-ranked (sixth-toughest) matchup for opposing fantasy defenses. Allowing only six points while piling up five sacks and one interception secured the third-highest DST score of the week.
Baltimore has at least four sacks in five of seven games and is Top 10 in sack rate (sacks per dropback). In Week 8 they get a great matchup with the Cardinals. Arizona is a bottom-10 team in points scored per game and has an offensive line ranked 20th according to PFF. The Ravens' defense should have a field day in the desert this week.
Justin Madubuike and the #Ravens defense has Jared Goff seeing ghosts. pic.twitter.com/p0IXKmeE6c
— Bobby Trosset (@bobbybaltimoree) October 22, 2023
Philadelphia Eagles DST @ WAS
Yahoo Rostership%: 92%
Vegas Odds: PHI -6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 43.5
Implied points against: 18.5
The Eagles were one of multiple top-level defenses that came through for the fantasy managers who stuck with them, even in a tough matchup with the high-powered Dolphins. This was mostly due to the Eagles holding Miami to only 17 points, which was one of the more impressive defensive feats of Week 7. The Dolphins are currently tops in the league averaging 34.3 points per game, almost four more PPG than second place (49ers). The Dolphins have held opposing DSTs to a POA of -1.7 PPG, making the Eagles' solid day instill confidence in starting them most weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs DST @ DEN
Yahoo Rostership%: 69%
Vegas Odds: KC -7.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 46
Implied points against: 19.3
The Chiefs were another topic of discussion leading into Week 7 as a good fantasy defense with a tough matchup against the third-ranked Chargers. With this Week 8 matchup with the 24th-ranked (ninth-easiest) Broncos, the options included holding them through Week 7 while streaming a DST with a better matchup, dropping them hoping to get them back, or just taking your lumps and starting them. Those who chose the latter were rewarded with the sixth-highest DST score of the week.
And now Chiefs DST managers get an ideal matchup with the Broncos, a team they played two weeks ago, allowing only eight points while securing three turnovers and four sacks. With the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL, the Chiefs defense should be able to rack up another multi-turnover, multi-sack game in Denver.
The Chiefs' defense tied their season's most pressures in a game with 24 against the Chargers. They had five sacks, 15(!) hurries, and seven total QB hits. All of this without Chris Jones recording a sack, BUT having the highest total pressures(7) on the team.
— Daniel Harms🏈 (@InHarmsWay19) October 23, 2023
Buffalo Bills DST vs. TB
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: BUF -8.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 17
The Bills defense stumbled in Week 7 against the Patriots. After averaging four sacks per game in Weeks 1 through 6, the Bills only got to Mac Jones once while allowing the Patriots to score 29 points, their highest points allowed on the season. I’m chalking that up to an off day against a division rival and jumping right back on the “thou shalt start the Bills DST” in Week 8.
Tampa Bay has been a middle-of-the-pack matchup for opposing DSTs (14th), but their implied total of 17 points is the second-lowest of Week 8 and the Bills are a big home favorite. The Bills remain an elite unit as they have the second-highest pressure rate and highest turnover rate in the NFL (percentage of drives ending in a turnover). The DST4 rank might be too low for this team in Week 8.
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
New York Jets DST @ NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 62%
Vegas Odds: NYJ -3
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 16.8
The Jets are coming off a bye in Week 7 and get a matchup with the 28th-ranked Giants in one of the least “road” away games possible. In the two games before the bye the Jets averaged three sacks, 3.5 turnovers, and 17.5 points against, including holding the Eagles to only 14 points in their upset win.
Although the Giants have been a slightly worse matchup for DSTs with Tyrod Taylor at QB, they have still allowed a POA of +7.9 PPG to opposing fantasy defenses on the season. The Giants have the lowest implied total of the week (16.8), and this smells like an ugly, low-scoring game in the teams’ shared stadium, which is what we want for our DST.
The #Jets defense through the first six weeks:
💥 13 takeaways (t-2nd in NFL)
💥 8 INTs (t-2nd in NFL)OUR BALL 😤😤😤 pic.twitter.com/G0FidSJJt1
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) October 22, 2023
Miami Dolphins DST vs. NE
Yahoo Rostership%: 48%
Vegas Odds: MIA -9.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 47
Implied points against: 18.8
Make sure to check your waiver wires for the Dolphins. At less than 50% rostered, Miami qualifies as a streamer, and they are easily one of the best streamers of Week 8. Similar to the Chiefs, the Dolphins put fantasy managers in the precarious position of deciding whether to start them in a tough matchup against the Eagles or drop them. They were dropped in over 40% of Yahoo leagues as their rostership was 93% a week ago. The Patriots may have pulled the upset against the Bills in their house, but the Dolphins get them in Miami with the opportunity to add to their increasing lead atop the NFC East. When the Dolphins did play in New England in Week 2, they recorded four sacks and forced two turnovers while holding New England to 17 points. The Dolphins are my dark horse to be the top-scoring DST in Week 8.
San Francisco 49ers DST vs. CIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: SF -5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 20
Although rather quantitative, this defense will likely be hungry and pissed off, returning home after two straight tough road losses. The Bengals are not the most ideal matchup (13th) and Burrow will be even healthier coming off the Week 7 bye. But the 49ers are an elite defense and we just saw multiple good DSTs come through in tough matchups in Week 7. San Francisco has a good chance to join that club in Week 8.
On the flip side, DST7 might seem like too high of a rank if you look at fantasy PPG. The 49ers have had one of the softer DST schedules thus far and have only two double-digit games on the season. That is why I have them in Tier 2 instead of Tier 1.
Dallas Cowboys DST vs. LAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 93%
Vegas Odds: DAL -6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 19.5
The Rams have been a surprisingly bad matchup for opposing DSTs, ranking as the fourth-toughest opponent in adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Cowboys had a bye in Week 7 but before that held the Chargers (third-toughest DST matchup) to 17 points on the road. Playing at home off of the bye week means this defense will be fresh while the Rams are coming off a tough, physical loss to the Steelers.
THE DALLAS COWBOYS DEFENSE MAKES THE PLAYS THAT SEALS THE GAME pic.twitter.com/rarkhTuqtl
— Dallas Nation (@TheDallasNation) October 17, 2023
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
Houston Texans DST @ CAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 4%
Vegas Odds: HOU -3
Over/Under (Total Points): 43
Implied points against: 20
The Texans check in as another decent streaming option in Week 8, and they are widely available. Houston faces the 25th-ranked Panthers as a road favorite. The Texans haven’t been a dominant defense or a consistent fantasy DST with multiple zero-sack games and only two double-digit outputs on the season. But there have been positives over the last month. In the last four games, they’ve forced at least one turnover in each and have allowed a league-low 14.3 points per game in that stretch. They should be able to keep the score low and their fantasy day could be great if they can get some sacks or score on defense.
Seattle Seahawks DST vs. CLE
Yahoo Rostership%: 69%
Vegas Odds: SEA -3
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 18.8
The Seahawks have seven sacks in the last two games and have averaged 13.5 points against. They have not allowed more than 17 points in a game since Week 3. It’s been the typical “bend, not break” style of defense for Pete Carroll’s team, as they continue to give up chunks of yardage, but not a lot of points. They get another home game in Week 8 against the 27th-ranked Browns, and with that home-field advantage, the Seahawks should find a lot of success stopping whoever is under center for the Browns.
DEVON WITHERSPOON HIT STICK 🥄
(via @Seahawks)pic.twitter.com/ztjYMeSXrN
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 22, 2023
Cleveland Brown DST @ SEA
Yahoo Rostership%: 81%
Vegas Odds: SEA f-3
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 21.8
The Cleveland Browns' defense is completely suffocating opposing offenses. This unit is on pace to become an all-timer. #Browns pic.twitter.com/sp1rXO4Ne7
— David Hrusovsky Sports (@davehrus) October 17, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars DST @ PIT
Yahoo Rostership%: 26%
Vegas Odds: JAX -2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 19.5
Jaguars defense vs Indy ended with 3 sacks, 8 QBH, 3 INT, 1 FF -- Here's a thread of some of the key plays:
Josh Allen bends the edge and is able to launch himself to Minshew and hits his throwing arm. Sack fumble pic.twitter.com/9CSfDshkLd
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) October 16, 2023
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. All the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams, and unless you play in a league with more than 12 teams or have league mates carrying multiple DSTs, one of them should be. If not, my top choices from Tier 4 are the Lions, Falcons, and Giants.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 8
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 8 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 7.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following chart shows each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s corresponding number rank can be found on the right side of the chart. Also included are the strength of schedule scores for the rest of the fantasy regular season (Weeks 8-14) and the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17).
One of my favorite DSTs for both the rest of the season and the playoffs is the Chiefs. The Texans also have a decent rest-of-season schedule and a great playoff schedule. I will be updating and including it in this article each week so we can keep an eye on those DST playoff schedules.
The other strategy this visual depiction assists with is developing what I like to call a Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will always feature DST options that are below 50% ownership during the current week.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. Looking at Weeks 8-11, here is a potential DST action plan:
- Week 8: Stream the Dolphins if available. If not, stream the Texans or Jaguars.
- Week 9: Stream the Raiders against the 28th-ranked Giants. Another option: Patriots against the 30th-ranked Commanders.
- Week 10: Stream the Falcons against the 18th-ranked Cardinals.
- Week 11: Stream the Dolphins versus the 29th-ranked Raiders. The Dolphins will jump above 50% ownership in Week 8, but between Week 8 and 11, they face the Chiefs and have a bye. I will be looking to scoop them up during their bye week if my roster allows it.
Keep an eye on the Seahawks for Week 10. Seattle is above 50% ownership right now, but they are at the Ravens in Week 9 so I expect that to dip below 50% next week. The Seahawks against the 32nd-ranked Commanders would be a better Week 10 option than the Falcons.
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).
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