RADIO
Week 4 was fairly strange, as one single game (SEA-DET) produced outsized play volume and points, leading to many players from that game being optimal for DFS lineups. Unfortunately, I faded much of the chalk, so you can guess how my week went in tournaments.
Week 5 is shaping up to be an ugly slate, as no game sports a Vegas total above 50 points. There are some strong offenses in good spots, so I’ll try my best to highlight those. But there aren’t too many games jumping out with shootout vibes.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Josh Allen ($8200) + Stefon Diggs ($8400) AND/OR Gabriel Davis ($6400)
Week 4’s weather-impacted outing against Baltimore certainly hindered Buffalo’s vaunted passing attack, but Josh Allen still managed to top 24 DraftKings points thanks to 70 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Back home against an enigmatic Steelers team in Week 5, Allen and his receiving weapons should certainly get right here. Pittsburgh has yielded 383 total yards per contest in 2022, ranking ninth in that category. Along with that, they are in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per game allowed — despite facing Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson.
Stefon Diggs has underwhelmed the last two weeks, but his 41 targets rank seventh in football. Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox are also on the injury report this week, with a concussion and lower-leg injuries, respectively. If either is ruled out for Sunday, that equates to even more of the target pie going elsewhere. Only six other teams have surrendered more receiving yards to WRs than Pittsburgh.
With three appearances so far this season, Gabriel Davis has notched WR14, WR66, and WR87 finishes in PPR. Obviously that’s #notgood, but this can be mostly attributed to the ankle injury he’s been dealing with since Week 2. He logged his first full practice this week since the Sept. 17 injury, which is an encouraging sign for the talented playmaker. With concerns about McKenzie and Knox, Davis could finally return big dividends here.
Preferred bring-back: Diontae Johnson ($6100)
Leverage piece: Isaiah McKenzie ($5000)
If he clears concussion protocol prior to Sunday, McKenzie could be overlooked in this spot. Despite missing T.J. Watt since Week 1, Pittsburgh has still mustered an above-average 10 sacks. If that pass rush continues to get home, McKenzie could be heavily involved with his 6.4-yard aDOT. I would prefer stacking him with one of the aforementioned Buffalo receivers, too, but it’s something to think about.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jalen Hurts ($8600) + A.J. Brown ($8000) AND/OR Dallas Goedert ($6100)
Eagles-Cardinals owns the highest Vegas total on the Week 5 slate (49.5). Both teams rank inside the top five in plays per game, according to teamrankings.com. In this up-tempo contest, Philly’s potent offense should find success — and the end zone — early and often.
Arizona ranks 10th in passing yards allowed (255.8) and fifth in points allowed (25.8). This defense has been particularly vulnerable to tight ends; Kliff Kingsbury’s unit has served up the second-most receptions (28), the second-most yards (341), the third-most touchdowns (three), and the most FanDuel points to the position (pro-football-reference.com). Dallas Goedert should feast (if given the opportunity).
A.J. Brown continues to dominate opportunities for Philly’s receiving corps, ranking ninth in targets, sixth in target share, and second in air yards share throughout the league. In a back-and-forth contest with Arizona, it wouldn’t be crazy for him to draw double-digit targets and post a ludicrous fantasy score. Along with that, the Cardinals possess a run funnel defense, giving up just 87 rushing yards per game. The Eagles will be incentivized to throw.
Preferred bring-back: Rondale Moore ($5200)
Leverage piece: DeVonta Smith ($6600)
His production will be sporadic, but DeVonta Smith gave us a glimpse of his ceiling in Week 3 against Washington. Sporting a 35.2% air yards share, ranking 11th in the NFL, his big-play ability could show up in this projected track meet. Picking the right Philly option could be tough each week, but that’s part of the fun. My bet would be that two of the three could be supported by Jalen Hurts here.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Carson Wentz ($5700) + Terry McLaurin ($6200)
As unpredictable as any quarterback in the NFL, Carson Wentz is living up to the billing through four weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, Wentz topped 31 DK points each week. In Weeks 3 and 4, he didn't even top 10 DK points. Incredibly sporadic but possessing an ability to access a fantasy ceiling, he’s the type of player we need to keep going back to the well on in tournaments.
In Week 5, he draws a plus matchup against Tennessee. The Titans have surrendered the fourth-most passing yards per game (274.0) in 2022. Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel have both popped up on the injury report this week. Their possible absences would obviously be a boon to Terry McLaurin’s Week 5 outlook.
Yet to post an alpha-type game this season, McLaurin is certainly due, and this matchup is unimposing; Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most DK points per game to wideouts. Samuel’s absence would be very beneficial for McLaurin, as that would open up 22.2% of the team’s targets and nearly one-fourth of their red-zone looks.
He’s cheap, talented, and we know he’s capable of substantial ceiling performances. Combining that with the fact that Tennessee should be able to put points up on Washington, and mini correlations with Scary Terry and Derrick Henry sound very appealing in DFS.
Preferred bring-back: Derrick Henry ($8200)
Leverage piece: Logan Thomas ($3200)
Including Logan Thomas in your Wentz stacks makes sense in Week 5. He’s played at least 62% of the team’s offensive snaps in every game this year and has seen a red-zone target in three of four. He’s also cheap enough to pay off the price tag even if McLaurin produces a monster game.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence ($7600) + Christian Kirk ($7600)
Only the Lions, Seahawks, and Ravens have allowed more total yards per game than the Texans this season (412.3). Houston is beatable both on the ground and through the air, and Jacksonville has shown they can rack up yards in bunches outside of last week. The rainy conditions in Philly really held back this offense, but Week 5 is a prime bounce-back opportunity.
Christian Kirk has been the apple of Trevor Lawrence’s quarterbacking eye through four weeks, drawing at least nine targets in three of four outings. Kirk is also tied for fifth in the league in red-zone targets with eight. Scorched for stat lines of 7/120/0 (Mike Williams), 7/122/0 (Courtland Sutton), and 9/121/1 (Michael Pittman) in the first four weeks, Kirk is set up to eat.
Targeting offenses in DFS that will be moving the ball well — both on the ground and through the air — is important. Houston is a bottom-two unit against the run, so Doug Pederson’s club should be marching up and down TIAA Bank Field, setting up Lawrence and his weapons for scoring opportunities.
Preferred bring-back: Brandin Cooks ($6800)
Leverage piece: Zay Jones ($5700)
Zay Jones sat out Week 4 with an ankle injury. Prior to that absence, the East Carolina product was averaging two red-zone targets per game. Likely to draw a fraction of the ownership of Kirk, Jones is a solid leverage play in this spot.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Andy Dalton ($5200) + Chris Olave ($5700) AND/OR Jarvis Landry ($4300)
We all just saw what Detroit did to this Seattle defense in Week 4 in a domed environment at home. Well, New Orleans finds themselves in the exact same boat in Week 5, with a backup journeyman QB to boot. Jameis Winston is on the injury report with back and ankle injuries, setting the stage for Andy “Red Rifle” Dalton to lead the Saints’ offense.
Now, Dennis Allen’s top pass catcher, Michael Thomas, is also nursing a foot injury. If Thomas ultimately misses, that will narrow the target distribution for Dalton to primarily Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. Olave is leading the entire league in air yards (by a wide margin) with 673. The next-closest receiver, Tyreek Hill, sits at 453 air yards. The downgrade from Winston to Dalton certainly impacts the type of targets Olave will be getting, but he will still see plenty here.
Seattle has been absolutely trampled by opposing offenses this season; they currently own marks of second in total yards allowed, fourth in passing yards allowed and fourth in rushing yards allowed. During the 2019-2021 seasons, Dalton notched seven 300+ yard games, meaning he has the requisite upside to turn in a big game on DraftKings. Combining that with Seattle’s laughable defense could result in a strong performance from New Orleans.
Preferred bring-back: Tyler Lockett ($5600)
Leverage piece: Alvin Kamara ($6600)
Alvin Kamara is currently the RB61 in PPR, behind names like Brandon Bolden, Zander Horvath (who?), and Zack Moss. A rib injury has hampered the talented sixth-year back, but he is expected to play Sunday. The Seahawks are one of seven teams allowing 5.1 or more yards per carry, and they’ve served up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (six). The volume could be a concern coming off the injury, but efficiency could be had here for Kamara in his return to the lineup.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Teddy Bridgewater ($6400) + Tyreek Hill ($8400) OR Jaylen Waddle ($7700)
Absurdly cheap this week on FanDuel, Teddy Bridgewater’s price tag gives you flexibility when building lineups. And we know Mike McDaniel is a smart offensive schemer, meaning Bridgewater could certainly pay off this price tag.
New York has been surprisingly stout on defense in 2022, allowing just 326.5 total yards per contest (ranking 10th in the league). However, they’ve yielded the sixth-most points per game (25.3). The Jets have yet to hold an opponent below 20 points, so McDaniel’s Dolphins are likely to put up three-plus touchdowns here.
Only the Washington Commanders have been stung by WRs more in the touchdown department than the Jets (six TDs given up to the position). As dynamic as any duo in football, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will certainly give Sauce Gardner and Co. some problems.
Zach Wilson actually infused some offensive life into the Jets in Week 4, posting 252 passing yards against Pittsburgh. Could he replicate that success this week and spark a shootout at MetLife Stadium? Maybe that’s asking for too much. But a skinny stack with Bridgewater/Hill/Waddle with a talented Jet wide receiver bringing it back isn’t the worst idea in Week 5.
Preferred bring-back: Elijah Moore ($5300)
Leverage piece: Raheem Mostert ($5800)
Week 1 belonged to Chase Edmonds in regard to this Miami backfield. Since then, Raheem Mostert has seized a stranglehold on the opportunities. Handling 15 carries, running 25 routes, and playing 73.3% of the snaps in Week 4 (all season-high marks), the veteran back looks to be in the driver’s seat. One of the league’s fastest players, Mostert is capable of ripping off a big run at any time. And with backup Bridgewater in, Mostert could be leaned on more here.
Maybe I'm the Carson Wentz of fantasy football prognostication – two good weeks followed by two bad weeks. If that's the trend we have going, then Week 5 is setting up for a bounce back. Good luck! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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