RADIO
If you need a reason to read my Week 5 GPP Value Plays look no further than my Week 4 recommendation of Joe Mixon. I'd say he did pretty well last week, right?
Of course, I also recommended Mike Gesicki at tight end, so I'll hold off on the victory lap at this time. Besides, I'm not quite in the mood to bask in glory given that Covid-19 seems to threaten my first and forever love, better known as NFL football, a little more each week. It appears we might still get all the games scheduled for this week in this week, but this slate has shrunk quite a bit since the beginning of the week. And that was in addition to byes starting this week!
Thus once again the need to find GPP value picks becomes critical for Week 5! Here are my week 5 GPP Value plays, picks that should produce but should also be relatively low owned and won't cost you too much salary cap.
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Week 5 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Jimmy Garoppolo vs Dolphins (DraftKings $5500, FanDuel $6700)
DFS players by nature try to avoid injury risks. And Garoppolo has been quite the injury risk lately. However, the most recent news reports are that he will play this weekend.
#49ers injury report vs. #Dolphins
OUT
CB D.Johnson-groin
CB Moseley-concussion
DE Ansah-biceps
CB K.Williams-kneeQuestionable
RB Mostert-knee
WR D.Samuel-illness
CB Witherspoon-hamstringQB Garoppolo will start.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) October 9, 2020
Despite starting, Jimmy G should be extremely low owned this weekend. He has admittedly done next to nothing so far this year. And most of his performances last year were also rather pedestrian. However, every now and then he puts up a huge game against a weaker secondary. His two games against Arizona last year are a perfect example. In those two games, he threw for nearly 750 yards combined and eight touchdowns. As mentioned Arizona did not have a very good secondary last year.
But Miami's secondary hasn't exactly been impenetrable this year either. They have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. And San Francisco is getting healthier and healthier. Garoppolo has a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal for the first time since....well, maybe last season's Arizona game! With Garoppolo priced like a WR2 at best, he presents an incredible value this week.
Week 5 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Chase Edmonds vs.Jets (DraftKings $4700, FanDuel $5900)
A lot of folks are predicting a Kenyan Drake bounce-back this week. And it makes sense. Drake is only 26 years old and has never seen even 200 carries in a single season. After averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry with the Cards last year, his current 3.8 YPC has to improve, right? But maybe Drake really wasn't that good last year and got lucky. In fact, while with Miami last year, he averaged a similar 3.7 YPC. Food for thought, no?
Because Edmonds easily has been the more productive running back. Well, okay, his rushing numbers and Drake's are very close. But Edmonds has seen 17 targets to Drake's five. Even if Drake gets going on the ground, Edmonds should still see plenty of looks. The Jets have given up 27 points or more in all four of their games this year. There will be plenty of opportunities to go around! And with the Jets allowing 30.48 PPR fantasy points to RBs each week, it would not surprise me to see both Edmonds and Drake notch double-digit fantasy points this weekend. And given the $2K in savings on DK in particular and the few hundred on Fan Duel that Edmonds provides over Drake, I'd prefer to take Edmonds.
Week 5 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Brandon Aiyuk vs Miami (DraftKings $5200, FanDuel $5600)
Perhaps I chose Aiyuk because I wanted an excuse to include this:
Brandon Aiyuk, you're kind of ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/cTxYT9AnYb
— Joe Bryant (@Football_Guys) October 7, 2020
Or perhaps I chose Aiyuk because in his last three games he has 16 targets. And he has scored each of his last two games.
Maybe I chose him because I love the thought of pairing him with Jimmy Garoppolo in a mini-stack.
Or could it be because the Dolphins have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs this year?
Admittedly, it might just be that at only $5200/$5600, I love the upside value play that Aiyuk presents. The real truth however is it doesn't make a darn difference why I included Aiyuk here. You are going to want him in your lineup this weekend.
Week 5 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Ian Thomas vs Falcons (DraftKings $3400, FanDuel $4700)
We are going deep in the hole with this one. Based on his salary, the sites don't even view Thomas as mid-level TE2 this week. However, Thomas is coming off his best game yet this season. He both scored and matched his 2019 high of five targets last week. Yes, now in his third season, we know that Thomas can sometimes disappear.
However, he also has the occasional big game. And we saw what Robert Tonyan did against the decimated Falcons secondary on Monday night, right? I don't think Thomas gets a hat trick of scores like Tonyan did. But against Atlanta who has given up the most TE fantasy points this year, he should be able to at least get one.
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