Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Week 16 Waiver Wire - Starting Pitchers


starting pitcher dynasty prospects

Welcome to the first day without anything MLB going on, which makes it the perfect day for reflection on your squad. What better place to start their your starting rotation? Analyze where you stand in terms of innings pitched on the year if applicable, or maybe the balance you need to strike between starters and relievers in order to compete in both strikeouts/wins and ERA/WHIP. We're here to win championships, not crawl into third place. Take chances, make mistakes, get messy!

If you want to chat more about additional arms/bats/whatever, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions.

We're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30% this week. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 16.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, premium rankings, projections, player outlooks, top prospects, dynasty rankings, 15 in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research. Sign Up Now!

 

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets

Vince Velasquez (PHI - SP): 30% owned

Overall, Velasquez’s 2018 looks suspiciously like his 2016 campaign. His K/9 sits around 10.5 (10.44 in ‘16, 10.49 in ‘18) with an ERA that’s roughly half a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA. But there are some promising differences. The most notable is how he carried a rough 1.33 WHIP around in ‘16, thanks in large part to a .325 BABIP that was rooted in a 24% line-drive rate. He’s dropped his line-drive rate down to 18.3%, which has helped sink his BABIP down to .294. His WHIP is a tolerable 1.24 this season, which makes chasing those strikeouts much more pleasant. He looked sharp in his return from the comebacker that went off his pitching arm, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets to put a bow on his first half. And for what it’s worth, he has a 3.88 ERA (3.35 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA) over the last two months -- just in case any ERA above 4.00 serves as an automatic disqualification for you.

Zack Wheeler (NYM - SP): 21% owned

Go figure that one of Wheeler’s lesser outings would lead to his first victory since April 29, but he and the Mets beat the Nationals on July 14 after he yielded four runs over 7 ⅔ IP. He’s now struck out at least seven in five of his last six outings and carries a 3.63 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 3.86 xFIP since mid-May (11 starts). The righty is good for a strikeout per inning and he’ll either get traded to a team with better run support or remain in the weakest division in baseball (though his own team is a big part of that).

Trevor Cahill (OAK - SP/RP): 17% owned

Hopefully, Cahill got the cobwebs off his arm during his return to action against Houston  (3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K), though his seasonal statline remains impressive. He still holds a 3.10 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.15 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA through 52 1/3 frames — all marks that rank within the top-25 for starters (50 IP min.). He’ll need to prove that he can maintain a high strikeout rate while still inducing his usual grounders, and he should open the second half against the Giants with a good matchup to prove himself.

Ervin Santana (MIN - SP): 17% owned

Santana is 35 years old and coming off of finger surgery that may very well dent his abilities as a Major League starting pitcher. Plus, he’s never been a big strikeout guy (career 7.19 K/9), so I can see why the needle isn’t moving here. His latest Triple-A rehab start saw him give up three runs on four hits (two homers (one to Gary Sanchez) and a walk with seven strikeouts over 5 ⅔ innings. The whiffs are there and he’s showing off his usual control (two walks in 23 innings so far), so perhaps he can pick up as a mid-threes ERA arm with a good chance at wins in a weak division.

Jake Faria (TB - SP): 17% owned

Faria suffered an oblique strain on May 22 after getting hit hard at Fenway Park and is roughly three rehab appearances from being stretched out for the bigs. He has two rehab starts under his belt already, with his latest being a three-inning showing at Triple-A Durham on July 13, but he’s struck out only one in five total innings so far. This comes after posting a 6.99 K/9 in 47 ⅔ pre-injury innings, so I hope he’s just working on the basics first. His ERA and all peripherals are above 5.00 right now, but he had a strong rookie showing in 2017 and could be useful should he regain that form. If not, then he’s an easy cut for one of these other names.

Dereck Rodriguez (SF - SP): 16% owned

Shoutout to those of you who left Rodriguez in their lineups for that rogue extra-inning victory on July 11. D-Rod pitched three clean frames in a battle against the Cubs for his fourth win of 2018 and he now has as 1.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 28 innings over the last month. While his 3.42 FIP largely supports the 2.89 ERA, his 4.23 xFIP and 4.28 SIERA are more suspect. This is sensible for a guy with lesser strikeouts and a low 0.58 HR/9 mark, but also for a San Francisco pitcher. AT&T Park is notoriously pitcher-friendly and Rodriguez’s 2.28 ERA at home versus a 3.79 mark on the road isn’t surprising. I don't think he's strictly a home streamer, but he's more useful than 16% reflects even if that were the case given how strong his home park is.

Nick Kingham (PIT - SP): 12% owned

The good news is that Kingham enters the second half having won his last two starts, combining for 14 strikeouts against two walks over 12 ⅓ innings versus the Phillies and Brewers. The bad news is that he’s allowed six homers in his last three outings after surrendering just four longballs across his first six trips to the hill. His control is still there, but he’s now given up nearly as many homers (10) as walks (12). Still, his 3.69 SIERA and solid track record of limiting homers in the minors will keep me around for the second half.

German Marquez (COL - SP): 6% owned

Marquez enters the break having finally posted a strong start at Coors Field. Prior to July 11’s quality start (and win) against Arizona, Marquez had posted just one QS in his previous eight starts at home. He also hit a bomb off of Daniel Descalso, but I guess that’s not too relevant here. He’s walked just two batters in his last three outings despite facing the Dodgers, Mariners and D-backs, but he has yielded 11 homers in his last eight starts. Good control will help minimize the damage of said homers, but he’ll remain a road streamer until he can get that under control. That said, his 2.62 road ERA is worth targeting.

Luiz Gohara (ATL - SP/RP): 4% owned

Gohara is allegedly in the minors to get stretched out for a return to Atlanta’s rotation on July 24 against Miami. This illustrates some good points in favor of adding Gohara. One, he’s still seen as a starter and this could lead to an opportunity that lasts the rest of the season. Two, he gets to face the Marlins and we love pitchers in the NL East, especially those on Atlanta, Philadelphia or Washington. Let’s see if he can recapture the swing-and-miss stuff that gave him 178 punchouts across 153 professional innings in 2017 and gain some confidence against a weak Miami squad for a second-half run.

Ryan Yarbrough (TB - SP/RP): 7% owned
Ryne Stanek (TB - SP/RP): 4% owned

By the letter of the non-existent law, I can totally include these two because they’ve made starts. Like it or not, Yarbrough’s rank on Yahoo 5x5 leagues over the past 30 days is 116 and Stanek’s is 151. Yarbrough is helped out by three victories over that span (Stanek has none), but Stanek has a better strikeout rate (22 in 17 IP compared to 21 in 21 ⅓ IP), a better ERA (1.59 to 1.69) and WHIP (0.88 to 1.22). The ownership rates are following the wins, but Stanek’s 15.2% swinging-strike rate is nearly double Yar’s 8.6% mark! I’d rather own Stanek moving forward, but both should be on more radars.

Wade Miley (MIL - SP): 4% owned

The Brewers really only have Chase Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin to run out there as true starters right now. Brent Suter just came back from injury and rarely goes longer than five innings (though I suppose Chacin doesn’t work too deep either), and Junior Guerra is on the 10-day DL with right forearm tightness. Zach Davies is recovering from rotator cuff inflammation and Jimmy Nelson probably won’t return until September.

This paves the way for Miley to be relevant on an otherwise-strong Milwaukee team. This is not so much an endorsement of Miley, but of his situation. I do think the five walks in his return were influenced by not having pitched in over two months, but he’s no stranger to terrible control. I’d deploy him against below-average opponents and be able to sleep at night.

 

More Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers




More Recent Articles

 

Bases Loaded Podcast - Relief Pitchers Preview

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez, Zach Braff and Mike Simione as they jump into their relief pitcher preview! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Jose Urquidy

It's been a tumultuous winter for the Houston Astros. Not only were they embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal (which has, naturally, progressed apace to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about ever more sophisticated methods of cheating), but they watched staff ace Gerrit Cole sign a mammoth free-agent deal with the Yankees. Plenty of virtual ink has been... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mark Canha

Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign and is one player that probably deserves more attention heading into 2020 than he is currently receiving. He finished the season hitting .273/.396/.517 with 26 HR, 58 RBI, 80 R, and 67 BB in 410 at-bats. It was a very productive line for a guy that played in... Read More


Four Prospect Sleepers for 2020 Redraft Leagues

Recently, Rotoballer launched a list of the Top 50 MLB prospects for the coming year. The top of the list was populated by names such as Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, and Brendan McKay. These players, among others, feature a promising combination of talent and favorable playing time projections to suggest they’ll be the cream-of-the-crop among... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More


2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More


Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More


How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More


Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More


James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More