RADIO
"Hey, look at us. Who would've thought?"
Yes, you've made it to the fantasy football semifinals. Who would've thought? Maybe it's the team at RotoBaller to thank for your success. Maybe it's Christian McCaffrey, consistently the opposite of a bust (*knock on wood*). Regardless, you've made it, and the lineup decisions only get tougher.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 16, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 16 of the NFL season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Jordan Love at Carolina
Who do you love? It's not Jordan this week, that's for sure.
The Green Bay quarterback has been on fire recently, only slipping below 17.5 fantasy points once in his last six games. He just threw for 284 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay and now sits at QB8 overall on the season.
But you can't ask for much worse of a matchup in Week 16. The Panthers are a top-three defense against fantasy football quarterbacks. As I've stated previously, I don't think it's anything that Carolina is doing well. They struggle to stop the run and their offense is so putrid that their opponents are consistently gifted short fields. Once they build a decent lead, it's easy to coast with no threat of Bryce Young leading a comeback.
Christian Watson (hamstring) and Jayden Reed (toe) are on the injury report and missing practices. That could hurt even more, so keep an eye on the inactive list on Sunday should you rely on Love in 2QB or Superflex formats. That's the only scenario where I'm considering him for Week 16.
Kyler Murray at Chicago
In the first few weeks of the 2023 season, the Bears defense was a unit you'd be thrilled to see on your quarterback's schedule. Jordan Love threw for 245 yards and three scores in Week 1. Baker Mayfield topped 300 yards and added a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson also notched three scores. That's not the case anymore.
Over the last four weeks, Chicago has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, logging 12 interceptions and giving up just six passing touchdowns over that span. Is that due to an improving defense or the competition they've faced? Jared Goff (twice), Joshua Dobbs, and Joe Flacco have been under center.
Is there any reason to believe that Kyler Murray is better for fantasy football right now than Goff and Flacco? The former real-life 1.01 hasn't scored multiple touchdowns in his last two starts and tossed two interceptions against San Francisco in Week 15. At least when Flacco issued multiple turnovers, he was making up for it with touchdowns and yardage.
Wide receivers Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson have been in and out of the lineup in Murray's short 2023 campaign. He's had to rely on Trey McBride (great!) and Greg Dortch (not so great...).
But Murray makes up for his lack of passing with his legs, right? Ideally, yes, but his 31 yards-per-game average isn't moving the needle enough. Also, the Bears have surrendered just 170 yards on the ground to quarterbacks (fifth-fewest in the NFL) along with zero rushing touchdowns. The fantasy community may need to wait until 2024 to trust Murray as a starting quarterback.
Javonte Williams vs. New England
Javonte Williams is in the midst of a brutal fantasy playoff schedule. Listed here last week, the Broncos' lead back tallied 20 total yards on 14 touches. The Lions boast the fewest rushing yards to running backs this season (868) and shut down Williams (and Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine) accordingly.
Next up is the New England Patriots, who are also one of six teams holding running backs to under 1,000 rushing yards on the season. Their defense also hasn't allowed any runner to top 75 yards on the ground since Josh Jacobs in Week 6.
The Chiefs' running backs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon) both scored against New England, but each came through the air. They only averaged 2.8 yards per carry apiece. The passing game is the best point of attack for running backs to be productive.
That's not how the Broncos use Williams. While he is a good pass-catcher, he hasn't had more than three receptions since Week 10. Denver opts to turn to Perine in two-minute drills and passing downs. In fact, the veteran has an equal amount of targets and carries (45) this season. If any Denver running back will have a successful fantasy day, it will be Perine. But I wouldn't rely on any of the trio this weekend.
Ty Chandler vs. Detroit
Fellow RotoBaller writer Adam Koffler presented this question on X: Is Ty Chandler a league-winner or fool’s gold?
Both things can be true. The running back already helped fantasy managers advance past the first round of the playoffs with 157 yards and a touchdown on 26 touches. There's a real chance that he can replicate that performance in Week 17 against Green Bay, who has allowed the fourth-most yards to running backs this season. Granted, that's only if starter Alexander Mattison remains on the sideline with his ankle injury (although it sounds like Chandler will at worst be the 1A moving forward).
The former fifth-round pick may look more like fool's gold in between. The Lions (the Week 16 opponent) are the only defense that has surrendered under 900 rushing yards to running backs. They rank in the top six for the fewest catches allowed to the position and no running backs have scored through the air. It's a tough spot for an inexperienced running back making the second start of his career.
Attacking Detroit's secondary is the best way to beat their defense. Luckily for Minnesota, they have three elite receiving options, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Expect the game plan to be built around the pass-catchers and not Chandler.
Austin Ekeler vs. Buffalo
There are many inspirational quotes on the internet about how getting old isn't so bad. Rather, it's a beautiful thing as you gain wisdom and intelligence.
Ever had back pain for no reason? Getting old is not fun.
Austin Ekeler was once a perennial RB1 lock. Now, he's listed as a low-end RB2 in the fantasy football semifinals. It's not entirely his fault, but he's playing a role.
The downside of this offense was on full display on Thursday Night Football last week, and Ekeler was only given five carries and six targets on 40 percent of the snaps. Justin Herbert isn't walking through those doors to fix the offense. We're stuck with Easton Stick.
This could change now that head coach Brandon Staley was handed his walking papers, but Ekeler is in a full-blown committee now. Frustrated by his lack of production (he's topped four yards per carry twice since his return from an ankle injury), the Chargers pushed Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller back into the picture. The former fumbled against Las Vegas and rode the pine for the majority of the evening. Spiller then led the team in touches.
The Bills' defense has been elite against running backs over the last four weeks and just shut down Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle a week ago. They should have little issue containing the struggling Ekeler.
Jerome Ford at Houston
Jerome Ford hasn't been a league winner, but he hasn't been a league loser either. The second-year pro dipped below double-digit fantasy points twice in the last 10 weeks, establishing a decent floor for fantasy managers. Unfortunately, he topped 15 PPR points just once in that stretch.
Since Joe Flacco took over as starting quarterback for the Browns, Ford and Kareem Hunt have each logged 29 carries. At least Ford is besting his backfield mate in catches (14 to 3) in that span.
One of those instances where Ford didn't score well came last week against a suddenly stifling Chicago run defense. The Bears now allow the fewest rushing yards per game of any team in the league. Just five spots behind them sit the Houston Texans, giving up a total of 93.5 rush yards per game. Ford is in another tough spot for Week 16.
| Running Back | Rushing Stats vs. Houston Defense |
| James Conner | 14 carries, 62 yards |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 20 carries, 56 yards |
| Javonte Williams | 13 carries, 46 yards |
| Breece Hall | 10 carries, 40 yards |
| Derrick Henry | 16 carries, 9 yards |
Houston hasn't surrendered a running back rushing touchdown in the last five games, although Breece Hall did catch a touchdown in that span. Derrick Henry, who has a lengthy history of dominating the Texans, was held to 16 carries for nine yards and four catches for a single yard. It will be hard for Ford to do worse than that, but it's also hard to imagine him doing much better. If he's productive, it will have to come through the passing game.
Terry McLaurin at New York Jets
The Week 15 box score reads that Terry McLaurin had a good game. That's not entirely true.
McLaurin logged zero receptions before halftime and just one (for 17 yards) with Sam Howell at quarterback. With the game out of hand and the first-year starter struggling, Washington turned to veteran Jacoby Brissett. In the span of three plays over two drives, Brissett found McLaurin for 93 yards and a touchdown. That's the definition of garbage-time fantasy points.
Despite the benching, Howell will be the starting quarterback in Week 16. The former fifth-round pick is already notorious for spreading the ball around, and setting up plays for reserve wideouts like Dyami Brown. Five players on the Commanders (McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson) own a 10 percent or better target share. McLaurin does lead the group with eight targets per game.
But Howell won't force-feed his star wideout if the coverage doesn't allow for it. That happened in Week 13 against Miami when McLaurin got a lot of cardio in, earning just three targets and securing none of them. The Dolphins rank fifth-best for fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks. Washington's Week 16 opponent, the New York Jets, is two spots better than Miami and the best when looking at the season as a whole.
Unless Brissett also sneaks his way into this game, the path for McLaurin to boom looks grim.
Drake London vs. Indianapolis
Ridder! No, Heinicke! No, Ridder! No, Heinicke!
I'm sure he's a nice guy, but clowning on the managerial decisions that Arthur Smith makes is a good time. The Atlanta head coach is switching back to Taylor Heinicke after the Desmond Ridder experiment failed for a second time.
But before you promote Drake London to your starting lineup in Week 16, let's revisit how he did with Heinicke. That experiment, after all, failed as well.
| Week | Taylor Heinicke Stats | Drake London Stats |
| Week 8 (@ TEN) |
12/21, 175 yards, 1 TD | 7 targets, 5 catches, 55 yards |
| Week 9 (vs. MIN) |
21/38, 268 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT | Inactive |
| Week 10 (@ AZ) |
8/15, 55 yards, 1 TD (injured in 4th quarter) |
3 catches, 36 yards (2 came from Ridder in the 4th) |
To summarize, London has logged six catches for 62 yards in almost two full games with Heinicke. Both of those were road games. London performs significantly better at home (average of six catches for 88.8 yards) versus on the road (3.14 catches for 33.7 yards). Although, his lone goose egg happened at home in Week 1.
The Falcons are at home on Sunday, but there's zero trust in Smith drawing up the correct game plan. Just a week ago, he rarely utilized his first-round rookie running back Bijan Robinson (seven carries for 11 yards) and they lost to the worst team in the NFL.
Over the last four weeks, the Colts are getting torched by running backs (despite Najee Harris floundering last game) and are conversely strong against wide receivers. If Smith is smart, he leans into his philosophy and deploys his running game, rendering London an offensive afterthought.
Gabe Davis at Los Angeles Chargers
Gabe Davis wouldn't even be in consideration for this column if not for the matchup. With zero fantasy points in four out of the last six games, he worked his way from bust candidate to bust lock.
However, the Bills get to travel to Los Angeles and match up against the dreadful Chargers secondary. It's the same secondary that got eviscerated by Aidan O'Connell. Rookie wide receiver Tre Tucker scored twice. They allow the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Why can't Gabe Davis replicate that success?
He could. He could also just as easily earn another one-target game. It's a low-hanging fruit.
If anything, should Buffalo opt to refine their passing game, they're going to get Stefon Diggs involved. Their primary receiving option is going through a rough stretch of his own, catching four passes or fewer in four of the last five games.
But offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been leaning on running back James Cook since he took over play-calling duties to great success. That pushed Davis from the second option to third, if not fourth, with the emergence of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. Even if he delivers a vintage, random explosion game, you'll be far happier not dealing with the headache.
Dallas Goedert vs. New York Giants
The Eagles funnel targets to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and yet the tight end only averages a hair under six per game. In his last four games, he's secured four, three, four, and four receptions. Those aren't the numbers needed to win fantasy championships.
There's something inherently wrong with the Eagles' offense. They haven't topped 20 points in their three consecutive losses and rank 22nd league-wide in points per drive. When they do score, it's via a Tush Push (or maybe a little longer run from Jalen Hurts). He's rushed for three of the last four Philadelphia offensive touchdowns.
A remedy for their woes could come in the form of the Giants' defense, who don't rank in the top half of the league against passing yards, rushing yards, or points allowed. They are, however, strong against fantasy football tight ends. They give up the sixth-fewest points to the position. Goedert doesn't have a strong history in this NFC East series either. Another week of number 88 scoring in the single digits is a definite possibility.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Win More With RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:
More Start/Sit Advice
