RADIO
Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC 332 - Silva vs. Wang. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Julius Walker, Loopy Godinez, Francisco Prado, Christian Leroy Duncan, and Kai Kamaka III.
Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan locks Saturday at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
Saturday's main event will result in an elimination from the middleweight title picture. Brendan "All-In" Allen has the top-five spot in the rankings as it stands, but English kickboxer Christian Leroy Duncan is looking to take it with an emphatic highlight.
Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks on the card in each pricing tier.
UFC Vegas 122 DraftKings DFS Studs to Target
Felipe Franco ($9,300)
In stark contrast to last week's card, there isn't immense chalk on this one. Felipe Franco's slate-high salary sits that way as a card-best -395 favorite.
The Brazilian wrestler still has a lot to prove at the UFC level, but he's off to a great start. He pounded out Levi Rodrigues Jr. for a second-round (T)KO in June after a short-notice heavyweight appearance against Mario Pinto, where his durability was on full display.
He's facing Brendson Ribeiro, who is 2-6 in the UFC and has been used as a prop for the light heavyweight division's top prospects. In this matchup, Ribeiro's 32% takedown defense is nearly unmanageable, and he's been finished in the first round four times.
Franco's style is conducive to DFS success. He shoots nearly immediately into his wrestling, attempting 9.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. He doesn't need a finish to score well in this matchup, but DraftKings Sportsbook still has him at -225 to find one.
Julius Walker ($9,200)
Julius Walker got knocked out in eight seconds in his last fight. I guess it couldn't get any worse?
ABDUL RAKHMAN YAKHYAEV DOESN'T EVEN NEED TEN SECONDS TO GET THE KO WIN!!! 😳
[ #UFCBaku | LIVE ON @ParamountPlus ] https://t.co/8vd46UTyxu
— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) June 27, 2026
That was undefeated prospect Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, though. Conversely, Gerald Meerschaert is 38 years old, moving up 20 pounds to light heavyweight, and has lost five straight. The matchup really couldn't be much more different.
As a wrestler averaging 10.71 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, Walker is a 27-year-old prospect from Xtreme Couture, an elite gym that should help him navigate Meerschaert's submission threat.
The veteran has not won a fight that wasn't a submission since 2017, and that's a product of a poor chin, a -0.49 striking success rate (SSR), and suboptimal takedown defense (40%).
GM3's apathy toward allowing takedowns didn't use to bite him when he had such an advantageous guard game. In this matchup, it could just be aiding Walker's ability to pile up DraftKings points (DKPTs).
Loopy Godinez ($9,000)
In addition to Franco and Walker, heavyweight RJ Harris is also a substantial favorite for a finish. Most should ignore Loopy Godinez in this salary range, but I think she's got a path to a quick finish.
If you look on the surface at Godinez dropping three of her last five, it seems rough, but the losses were to literally the top-three fighters in the division: Tatiana Suarez, Virna Jandiroba, and champion Mackenzie Dern. Suarez's submission is the only loss via stoppage of her career.
Needless to say, this is a mammoth step backward in competition to Ketlen Souza, whose four UFC wins have come against opponents a combined 10-13 with the promotion.
Souza has produced a couple of highlights at her level, but her 53% takedown defense is a problem. She allowed eight to Piera Rodriguez just three fights ago.
Godinez is a longshot for a finish, but my model has her at 29.9% to score one. Her lower salary could make noise in tournaments if one of these talented but volatile big men falters.
UFC Vegas 122 DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks
Leon Shahbazyan ($8,700)
Leon Shahbazyan looked like an amateur who didn't know how to take a punch in his debut against powerful Georgian striker Levan Chokheli. Boy, I really know how to sell them, don't I?
THAT'S HOW YOU MAKE A DEBUT 🇬🇪
Levan Chokheli walks out of #UFCVegas119 with a debut win under 30 seconds!
[ LIVE ON @ParamountPlus ] https://t.co/nlFyF6Oy0m
— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) June 20, 2026
Well, similar to Walker's setback, this is an entirely different challenge on this lowly Apex card. Rather than a dangerous contender in his prime, it's 37-year-old Niko Price, a loser of four straight in his retirement fight.
"S.O.G." might not have the world's best durability, but Price's last knockdown was in October 2019 against James Vick. Instead, Shahbazyan is likely going to try and land his own strikes or exploit the veteran's 50% takedown D, which failed in a sub-90-second loss to Michael Chiesa in March.
RotoBaller's MMA optimizer expects Price to be one of the highest-drafted dogs on the board (27.1%) because Shahbazyan looked so bad in his debut. Maybe he is. But I'm much more willing to invest in the theory that Chokheli was just that good than in a theory that Niko Price has literally anything left in the tank in 2026.
Francisco Prado ($8,000)
In one of the worst weight misses in UFC history that didn't result in a cancellation, Ismael Bonfim missed weight by 7.5 pounds on Friday. Francisco Prado's acceptance of this fight at such a disadvantage speaks to his confidence in this matchup.
That's because the weight miss is only a continuation of a red flag that Bonfim, who has quit in three straight fights due to endurance issues, still doesn't have his preparation in order. This fight between him and Prado, 1-5 in the UFC, was absolutely a "loser goes home" bout.
Because of the Argentinian's struggles in the UFC, his stats are poor, but one thing you can't argue with is his durability. He's never been stopped in 17 pro fights, and he is improving at just 24 years old.
Prado has floated to a -148 favorite in this matchup, but these salaries -- set on Monday -- still reflect him as the underdog. I'm willing to eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere when these circumstances are so primed for Bonfim to quit once more.
Ernesta Kareckaite ($7,900)
The women's flyweight crown just changed hands, but to speak to the depth of it, I wouldn't rule out Ernesta Kareckaite in a fight with the new divisional queen tomorrow.
"Heavy-Handed" does not sit back and take her time, landing a phenomenal 7.28 significant strikes per minute in an octagon sample lasting 60.0 minutes. She's faced two ranked contenders, Dione Barbosa and Carli Judice, in this time, as well.
Boxing comes naturally to the Lithuanian, but that does limit her upside for DKPTs just a bit. She's only averaged 1.25 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, and avoiding Melissa Gatto's is probably the top priority.
Brazil's Gatto (+0.80 SSR) is a game striker herself, but her strength of victory is awful. She's beaten three fighters a combined 6-12 in UFC, so you have to take the analytics with a grain of salt.
With maximum confidence in Kareckaite's takedown defense (81%), I think she edges out a close decision with quality striking volume.
UFC Vegas 122 DraftKings Underdog Plays
Christian Leroy Duncan ($7,700)
Saturday's feature is an interesting striker-versus-grappler dynamic, but I just think England's Christian Leroy Duncan wins it with a highlight.
I've long been skeptical of Brendan Allen's survival in the top five. He just faced an unranked fighter, Edmen Shahbazyan (Leon's brother), and had a -1 striking differential. His -0.03 SSR and 47% striking defense are closer to concerning than good.
Allen's wrestling (1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes) has allowed him to coast by certain foes, and Duncan (57% takedown D) is not perfect there. I understand the risk that the American is a wet blanket over the course of 25 minutes.
But Duncan is a sniper with power that has flashed (0.64% knockdown rate). I actually can't think of a better matchup in the top 10 to get the statement he's long failed to make.
CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN WITH A MASSIVE FINISH AT #UFCVEGAS111 💥 https://t.co/dyWlqXJDrP
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 9, 2025
My model has him 58.9% likely to win, which would almost certainly put him into the perfect DFS lineup on a tough card for underdogs.
Kai Kamaka III ($7,600)
In a fight that is -150 to go all 15 minutes, I think you could make a stacking argument for a high-volume affair between Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III. We'll obviously take the lower salary with all these projected finishers on the card.
I've long said Kamaka III may not get the respect he deserves. His pro MMA resume was largely built in PFL and Bellator, but he took top featherweights, like former PFL champ Brendan Loughnane, to split decisions at the apex of those promotions.
Plus, "Da Fightin' Hawaiian" has really solid analytics. His striking accuracy (59%) and defense (55%) are both quality marks. He's been efficient in converting takedowns (53%). How has that resulted in an SSR of -0.54? He's fought brutal opponents and pushed a torrid pace.
Fili just isn't that scary of a matchup. The veteran has just one win that wasn't a split decision since the start of 2019. He usually fights close, and he's been dropped six times in this stretch compared to just one knockdown of his own.
I've modeled Kamaka III at 59.7% likely to win this bout.
Otari Tanzilovi ($7,300)
Malcolm Wellmaker has lost twice as a heavy favorite in the last 12 months. Perhaps a third time is the charm, but you're just really buying into his move to American Top Team in Florida to believe he's a worthy favorite here.
Wellmaker has awesome power (2.10% knockdown rate), but any extended fight has been a disaster. His striking (52%) and takedown (46%) defense are iffy, and he's had endurance problems late in bouts.
The latter is a point that could also be made about Otari Tanzilovi, but Tanzilovi attempts 12.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands enough of those (36%) to bring up some old demons for the former top prospect.
I actually think the American could win a longer fight, but if Tanzilovi can land a few takedowns in a decision loss, he'll still be the side of this fight you want in DFS. I trust the fact that, even fighting at 145 pounds, the Georgian has never been KO'd as a pro.
