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It's safe to say that the 2022 NFL offseason has been the most unpredictable in recent memory, if not ever, in terms of big-name players being traded and free-agent signings. In an effort to top itself, it got a lot crazier when star wide receiver Tyreek Hill was shipped to the Miami Dolphins, seemingly out of nowhere. It was a deal that came to fruition in a matter of hours, at least as far as public was aware.
Not a single person connected to the NFL had intimated that Hill might not stay in Kansas City for 2022 and beyond, yet here we are. He is now set to join Jaylen Waddle and recent free-agent acquisition Cedrick Wilson in Miami to catch passes from third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Let's dig into the details of the deal and what it means for both sides.
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How Did This Happen?
It bears repeating that this is a move absolutely nobody saw coming. We never heard a whisper or a rumor that Tyreek Hill could possibly be on the move. He was not a free agent, nor did he ever express dissatisfaction with the Chiefs or a desire to play elsewhere. Unlike Davante Adams, who had sided with Aaron Rodgers on his disdain for the Green Bay front office and apparently had a lifelong dream to be a Raider, plus the allure of reuniting with his college QB Derek Carr, Hill had no reason to leave or connection to Miami.
Apparently, seeing Adams become the highest-paid receiver in the league didn't sit well with him. Hill was signed through this season but was working to get a long-term deal done. Extension talks stalled and the Chiefs gave permission for him to seek a trade. So, agent Drew Rosenhaus set about making it happen for Hill and he did it quickly.
Both the Jets and Dolphins were vying for his services but it was ultimately Miami's offer that won out. They are sending five draft picks to Kansas City: a first, second, and fourth-round pick in this year's draft plus a fourth and sixth-rounder in 2023.
The #Dolphins are signing Tyreek Hill to a three-year, $75 million extension as part of the trade from the #Chiefs, per source. So he's now under contract through the 2025 season at $23.8M per year overall.
By most metrics, the NFL's new highest-paid receiver.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 23, 2022
The underlying factor behind this deal wasn't just Hill wanting to a big payday, but his representation. Hill's agent is none other than Jerry Maguire Drew Rosenhaus, whose agency happens to be based in Miami where he grew up. Years ago, in an interview on the CBS show 60 Minutes, Rosenhaus admitted his hometown bias.
I was a huge Dolphins fan growing up here in Miami. When they lost, I literally was in tears.
Perhaps seeing the Fins endure a fifth consecutive season without a playoff berth and 20th since their last playoff win was enough to prompt one of his biggest clients to head south.
It seems as if Hill had his heart set on Miami anyway.
Tyreek Hill asked how close he was to picking the #Jets: "How close was I? Who? The Jets? ... I knew I was going to pick Miami no matter what because I'm basically from here, I'm here all the time. This is home for me, for us."
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 24, 2022
Conspiracy theories aside, the outcome of this massive deal was a win for Rosenhaus and a financial windfall for Hill. He might enjoy the warmer weather, beaches, nightlife, and lack of state income tax as well. There's a reason many high-profile players take their talents to South Beach, after all.
So Hill and his representation scored a huge victory and the Dolphins have their eyes firmly fixed on the postseason with their new star receiver and return man to accompany their recent offensive line additions of Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, not to mention running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert along with the aforementioned Cedrick Wilson. It's been a whirlwind offseason for Miami fans (all NFL fans really)!
According to Caesar Sportsbook, Miami's odds of winning the Super Bowl jumped up to 40-1 from 70-1 before the Hill deal. That's fine but this team may have gotten more confusing for fantasy purposes.
While the Dolphins are significantly better as a squad on paper, there's no doubt this move won't produce the same level of enthusiasm from fantasy managers as it does for Dolfans. Is Hill still on the WR1 radar?
Still a Deep Threat
The move from having Pat Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa as his QB might concern fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Mahomes is one of the best passers in the league and the Chiefs have been a top-six offense in terms of total yards and points every year since 2017 - the year Mahomes was drafted.
Hill's 10.4 aDOT (average depth of target) in 2021 wasn't nearly among the highest in the league and it was his lowest since his rookie year in 2016, before Mahomes was a Chief. His 11.2 yards per reception was also the lowest mark since '16.
The way Hill was used last year was different than in years past. Teams began to play safeties deeper and scheme to take away the deep ball from KC in order to avoid those quick-strike scores early on. Perhaps team were mimicking what Tampa Bay did in Super Bowl LV when they limited Hill to 73 receiving yards on seven catches. That's a decent game for many receivers but they limited the big play (his longest catch was 23 yards) and most importantly, kept him out of the end zone. It is a copycat league, after all.
Whether it was defensive adjustments or a Super Bowl hangover, the Chiefs simply weren't themselves at the start of 2021, getting off to a 3-4 record. They got back to their winning ways but mainly due to an improved defense. The number of big plays was down in a notable way.
Hill had 13 receptions of 20+ yards which was tied for 23rd among receivers, same as Chase Claypool and Marvin Jones. Those receivers are talented but had a noodle-armed Ben Roethlisberger and rookie Trevor Lawrence as quarterbacks. Hill had Pat Mahomes!
According to FantasyPros' Deep Ball Passing stats, Mahomes was once again among the leaders in deep throws with 58 attempts of 20+ yards. He was just as accurate as ever too. Based on the excellent research by Johnny Kinsley's Deep Ball Project, Mahomes had the fifth-highest accuracy on deep balls last year.
IT'S HERE: The 2021-22 Deep Ball Project is finally out. See how accurate your quarterback was throwing the ball downfield! https://t.co/N8pEINPcww pic.twitter.com/dqUqLysPJ4
— Johnny Kinsley (2021-22 Deep Ball Project Out Now) (@Brickwallblitz) March 4, 2022
Bottom line: Mahomes is just as good as ever. Hill is just as fast as ever. The Chiefs simply had to adjust their game plan so as not to leave their defense out to dry as often with short drives. Hill still has the ability to make big plays like always. He is 28 years old entering this season, still in his prime athletically, and has no history of significant injuries. Seems like a safe bet as long as we trust that Tua Tagovailoa can get him the ball.
When Hill's ADP plummets (it will), we will hear the narrative that Tua doesn't have a strong-enough arm to get him the ball and/or that the Miami offense won't pass enough to make him an elite fantasy option any longer. Let's see if we can validate those claims or disprove them.
Here is Tua Tagovailoa's completion percentage by depth of target in 2021, courtesy of Sharp Football Analysis:
To the untrained eye, it may appear that Tagovailoa's accuracy starts to increase once target depth extends beyond 30 yards and remains above league average at every point over 20 yards. That's because it does.
For the sake of comparison, here is Patrick Mahomes:
That's weird... it almost looks like Mahomes got less accurate the deeper he threw it and wasn't as good as Tagovailoa. Especially odd because Mahomes had Hill to toss it to downfield while Tagovailoa didn't. Maybe the names got switched. Will have to ping Warren about that.
Nobody expects Hill to replicate what he's done the first few seasons of his career in Miami. I'm not going out on a ledge to claim otherwise but I know that Hill will be knocked down too far in some rankings because of the false narrative that Tagovailoa can't complete a deep pass.
Miami's Sudden Wealth of Talent
Just when it looked like Jaylen Waddle was due for a boatload of targets as the primary receiver for his college teammate, he is now relegated to WR2 status in Miami. Or is he?
When the team signed Cedrick Wilson, many speculated that Waddle would be moved out of the slot and depreciate in target share, although I pointed out that might not be the case. As our own Michael Florio pointed out, Waddle was actually more productive when split wide. With a team that will likely run an offense similar to what Mike McDaniel ran in San Francisco, combined with Frank Smith's influence from the Chargers, we'll see a lot of short-to-intermediate passes.
With three receivers who all took most of their offensive snaps out of the slot along with a tight end in Mike Gesicki who is a glorified receiver playing TE that also lines up that way, this could be a jumbled mess. Most likely, Waddle stays outside opposite Wilson with Hill in the slot. All three will be moved around in different formations, Wilson and Hill will catch plenty of targets behind the line of scrimmage with the chance to operate in space after the catch. Target share will be more even than people expect, although Waddle should still lead the way in terms of total targets with Hill not far behind.
DeVante Parker was already rumored to be on the trade block before this deal went down, so it seems like a foregone conclusion that the team will shop him aggressively ahead of the NFL Draft.
Mike Gesicki was hit with the franchise tag and could have been an interesting pick based on McDaniel's work with George Kittle the last few years. It turns out that he may be lost in the shuffle now with all the talent in the receiving corps. He is a fantasy TE2 with upside but can't be considered a starter in 12-team leagues.
We'll need to monitor training camp and preseason reports to see how these receivers are going to be used but right now, I have Waddle and Hill producing similarly as borderline top-15 receivers in PPR.
What Now for the Chiefs?
There's no two ways about it - this is a big blow to the Chiefs and Mahomes' fantasy value. One does not simply lose his top receiver and retain the same level of production. Look at Kyler Murray's second-half output last year without DeAndre Hopkins. Drew Brees' output in 2020 without Michael Thomas. You get the idea.
With all the big-name free-agent receivers having signed already, KC may start recruiting Jarvis Landry hard. Although it may not be an ideal fit since new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster is better suited to the slot where Landry will reside. Smith-Schuster could easily get bumped to the outside, which along with Landry's presence would hurt his fantasy value from its current standing. If they opt for a cheaper veteran such as Cole Beasley, A.J. Green, or Emmanuel Sanders, then not only would Chiefs fans be vexed, but it would indicate that the team is turning their eyes toward the NFL Draft.
Is there a Tyreek Hill in this year's rookie wide receiver class? Of course not. Just because Tyquan Thornton runs a 4.28 40 doesn't make him the next Cheetah on the field. It didn't work out that way for John Ross or Henry Ruggs, both of whom were first-round picks.
The Chiefs will need a speedy receiver since they already have Kelce to occupy the middle of the field along with whoever plays the slot and JuJu, wherever he lines up. The home run ball will always be an integral part of Andy Reid's offense. Mecole Hardman can play that role but not all that great. Over three seasons, he has barely seen his yardage per game increase; he logged a career-high 3.5 receptions and 40.8 yards per game in 2021.
Despite now owning two first-round picks, they are picks 29 and 30. That means players like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams will most likely be off the board. The most logical candidates would be someone like Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, or Skyy Moore. The wild card here is Christian Watson out of North Dakota State, who wowed at the combine with a Speed Score in the 98th percentile. At 6'4", 208, he's quite different than Tyreek Hill physically. But beggars can't be choosers. Daniel Jeremiah's updated mock has Watson going 30th overall to the Chiefs and that might be where I slot him as well.
As far as Josh Gordon, Justin Watson, or any other receivers currently on the Chiefs' roster, this means absolutely nothing. Gordon's days as a fantasy asset are long gone and everyone else may be a cutdown casualty once the team adds another player or two through the rest of the offseason.
Mahomes can't be dropped too far because he's still in the same fantasy-friendly system and he's got his true top target, Travis Kelce, still in tow. He is certainly out of the running for overall QB1, however, and drops down to fifth in my draft rankings.
Do not overpay for JuJu Smith-Schuster based on the Hill news. He's on a one-year deal and in an ideal situation but he's not shown that he can handle being an alpha receiver. I've got Smith-Schuster as the WR26 in early PPR draft rankings and might drop him down based on what happens over the coming weeks and months.
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