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Welcome back to the bump as we tap the PitchCom for my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. It's still early but some images are coming into focus under the microscope. Let's jump into another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
I'm still not going to frame this with a heaping of small-sample data for 2023. Obviously, that is a big driver for me as an input but I want it to feel robust before I just slap a bunch of numbers next to the names for you to digest. We'll start with some analysis and then hit the table.
These ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Another week into the season means slightly more stabilization, but there are still plenty of new velocities, repertoires, and batted-ball data nuisances to chew on.
*Corbin Burnes is day-to-day with a left pectoral injury suffered when stretching for the tag in a rundown. He’ll play catch on Wednesday and take it from there. At least it is his left pec and not the pitching arm.
*Jacob deGrom left his April 17 start with wrist soreness but expects to make his next start. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it’s as encouraged as we’ll get ahead of the outing. He’ll face Oakland at home in a plus-plus matchup.
*Joe Musgrove will make his season debut on Saturday in Arizona after missing a few weeks due to his toe and shoulder injuries. I’ll be giving him a start to show he’s 100% but I hope many of you enjoyed the 3+ round discount on draft day for this.
Joe Musgrove is healthy and fully built up and will make his season debut on Saturday in Arizona, Bob Melvin says. That bumps Yu Darvish back to Sunday.
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) April 18, 2023
*Carlos Rodon still can’t push through his nagging back injury so his rehab program remains slow. It’s annoying but the Yanks will run more tests just to be certain it’s minor. The southpaw still threw a bullpen session on Monday and we’ll hope for a return in May.
*Robbie Ray will undergo another MRI later this week to see how his elbow injury is progressing, but he’s yet to start a throwing program.
*Tyler Glasnow is reportedly working towards a mid-May return, per the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin. The initial reports of Glasnow missing 6-8 weeks appear to have been too optimistic, as he’ll tack on roughly a month to that.
*Tony Gonsolin is set to embark on his first rehab start on Thursday and should be available when the calendar turns to May.
-Chris Sale answered critics with a vintage 11-strikeout performance against the Twins on Tuesday. Of course, the Red Sox couldn’t get him run support against Sonny Gray despite plenty of traffic. Alas, that’s how it goes sometimes.
The bountiful whiffs and improved command from Sale reminds you why early panic high up the SP food chain must be tempered. We may not get this version of Sale on a consistent basis ever again, but it’s unlikely this is the last glimpse we get of it in 2023.
Chris Sale had a 43% whiff and 40% CSW tonight against Minnesota and saw his velo tick back up.
Definitely encouraging. pic.twitter.com/g6UOPz9KWq
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 19, 2023
-Taj Bradley melted the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, striking out nine across 5 ⅓ IP of scoreless ball. It’s only good for hitters if they can muster healthy contact, which was rare.
The rookie should step into Jeffrey Springs’ rotation slot with the sad news of his impending Tommy John surgery. Bradley is doing his best impression with 17 punchouts in 10 ⅓ IP thus far. He gets a tough test at home against Houston next week, but days like this illustrate why he was such a strong add.
-Hayden Wesneski posted a get-right outing against the hapless A’s on Monday, striking out seven across seven innings. He may have been pitching for his job, though it’s worth mentioning that Kyle Hendricks is starting his rehab. Wesneski may have inspired some confidence in the cushy matchup but now draws the Dodgers at home. He still has to prove himself against an offense of their caliber.
-Eduardo Rodriguez made waves with 10 strikeouts over eight shutout frames of his own on Tuesday. That’s more strikeouts than he’d had in his first three starts of the season combined (nine). We must mention he’s faced a bit of a gauntlet to open the year (at Tampa, at Houston, at Toronto, vs. Cleveland) and missed lots of time in 2022.
That’s not to say he’s suddenly an ace again because it was a cold afternoon in Detroit but needing some time to find his groove isn’t unreasonable. He’ll face the Brewers in Milwaukee next.
-Johan Oviedo has shown promise early on but gets a tough test at Coors on Wednesday. I doubt many will dare challenge altitude but we usually write off outings up there anyhow. He blanked the White Sox on April 9 and then struck out 10 Cardinals in a tough-luck loss on April 14.
The 25-year-old has an upper-90s fastball to go with a sharp 89-mph slider and devastating curveball. He’ll sprinkle a change in, mostly against lefties, and has the tools to be a 12-team asset. If he can consistently locate the fastball toward the edges, then look out!
-Mason Miller is being called up by the A’s in a rare display of prospect aggression (they’re also calling up Jordan Diaz, so perhaps witchcraft has taken hold of the front office). Miller will face the Cubs at home on Wednesday after posting an absurd 19/0 K/BB ratio over just 8 ⅔ IP between Double-A and Triple-A.
The 24-year-old has incredible raw talent and hasn’t shown the usual lack of control that comes with such high whiffs, but he’s also barely played due to injuries. A 2021 third-round pick, most of his 2022 was spent rehabbing a right scapula strain suffered during Spring training.
But he dazzled upper management with five no-hit innings last Friday and now brings his triple-digit heat to the bigs. He’s a strong add but don’t be surprised by speed bumps due to hitters being more used to extreme heat.
Everybody wants the next Spencer Strider.
There probably isn't one this year. BUT if anybody has a shot, it's #Athletics Mason Miller.
4S: 100.0 mph, 16.5" ride, 6" arm-side, 144 Stuff+
CT: 95.7 mph, 7" lift, 3" cut/sweep, 116 Stuff+
SL: 86.5 mph, -3" drop, 9" sweep, 120 Stuff+— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) April 16, 2023
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 4
| Tier | Player | Rank | $ |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 1 | 45.0 |
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | 2 | 43.0 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 3 | 42.0 |
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | 4 | 41.0 |
| 2 | Spencer Strider | 5 | 41.0 |
| 2 | Shane McClanahan | 6 | 41.0 |
| 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 7 | 39.0 |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | 8 | 37.0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 9 | 36.5 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 10 | 36.0 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 11 | 35.0 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 12 | 33.0 |
| 3 | Cristian Javier | 13 | 32.0 |
| 3 | Zac Gallen | 14 | 31.0 |
| 3 | Kevin Gausman | 15 | 31.0 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 16 | 30.0 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | 17 | 28.0 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 18 | 27.0 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | 19 | 26.0 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 20 | 24.0 |
| 4 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 21 | 23.0 |
| 4 | Joe Musgrove | 22 | 23.0 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 23 | 22.0 |
| 4 | Carlos Rodon | 24 | 22.0 |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 25 | 21.0 |
| 4 | Alek Manoah | 26 | 20.0 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 27 | 20.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Greene | 28 | 20.0 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 29 | 20.0 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 30 | 19.0 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 31 | 19.0 |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | 32 | 19.0 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 33 | 18.0 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 34 | 17.0 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 35 | 17.0 |
| 5 | Brandon Woodruff | 36 | 17.0 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 37 | 16.5 |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | 38 | 16.0 |
| 5 | Chris Bassitt | 39 | 15.5 |
| 5 | Nick Lodolo | 40 | 15.0 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 41 | 15.0 |
| 5 | Robbie Ray | 42 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Blake Snell | 43 | 14.5 |
| 6 | Dustin May | 44 | 14.0 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 45 | 14.0 |
| 6 | Andrew Heaney | 46 | 13.5 |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | 47 | 13.0 |
| 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 48 | 13.0 |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | 49 | 11.0 |
| 6 | Kyle Wright | 50 | 11.0 |
| 6 | Marcus Stroman | 51 | 10.5 |
| 6 | Taj Bradley | 52 | 10.5 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 53 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Brady Singer | 54 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 55 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 56 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Grayson Rodriguez | 57 | 9.5 |
| 7 | Jon Gray | 58 | 9.0 |
| 7 | Luis Garcia | 59 | 8.5 |
| 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 60 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 61 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Tony Gonsolin | 62 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Glasnow | 63 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Mahle | 64 | 7.0 |
| 7 | Triston McKenzie | 65 | 6.0 |
| 7 | Sean Manaea | 66 | 6.0 |
| 8 | Lucas Giolito | 67 | 6.0 |
| 8 | Graham Ashcraft | 68 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Merrill Kelly | 69 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Hunter Brown | 70 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Justin Steele | 71 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Jose Urquidy | 72 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Drey Jameson | 73 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Tyler Anderson | 74 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 75 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Eric Lauer | 76 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 77 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Kenta Maeda | 78 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 79 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Hayden Wesneski | 80 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Trevor Rogers | 81 | 3.0 |
| 8 | Jack Flaherty | 82 | 3.0 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 83 | 2.5 |
| 8 | Mason Miller | 84 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 85 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Michael Kopech | 86 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 87 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Johan Oviedo | 88 | 2.0 |
| 9 | David Peterson | 89 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 90 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Martin Perez | 91 | 1.5 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 92 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Josiah Gray | 93 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Roansy Contreras | 94 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Bailey Falter | 95 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Tylor Megill | 96 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Edward Cabrera | 97 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Michael Soroka | 98 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Bryce Elder | 99 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Domingo German | 100 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Mitch Keller | 101 | 1.0 |
As I said last week: Don't forget to breathe. We've seen most of these arms 3-4 times max and most prior convictions were rooted in a sound thought process. A few folks definitely stunk enough to warrant some panic, but even then, you're likely benching rather than dropping.
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