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Thunder Dan Palyo analyzes three hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 21. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
The fantasy baseball season is drawing closer and closer to an end; however, our Fantasy Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs article continues to go strong. This week, I'm filling in for the usual author of this piece, Kevin Larson, and I hope to bring you the same level of analysis that he has throughout this season.
This week, I've selected three young hitters to examine. All three are likely already rostered in 12-team leagues, but if you're in a 10-team league or shallower format, you may find one of these guys still floating around on the waiver wire.
My goal is to determine whether or not you should count on these young hitters down the stretch or dump them for more reliable options when you need to. It's a make-or-break time not just for teams vying for playoff spots but also for fantasy managers aiming for playoff spots as well. Alright, without any further ado, let's take a closer look at Matt Shaw, Isaac Collins, and Jakob Marsee.
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All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, August 17th.
Matt Shaw, 2B/3B/SS - Chicago Cubs
2025 Stats: .689 OPS, 93 wRC+, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 42 R, 15 SB
Shaw's last month's worth of results have catapulted him back into consideration in standard leagues.
Last 30 Days: .306 AVG, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 14 R, 3 SB
But is this a sign that Shaw is finally settling in and getting comfortable late in his rookie campaign? Even with the recent hot streak, his numbers this season still don't stand out much other than his ability to steal bases.
And Shaw's first half of the 2025 season was rough. He hit .198 with just two home runs and a .253 wOBA across 207 at-bats.
Oof, there isn't much to like there on the sliders other than a low strikeout rate and some elite speed on the basepaths. We don't even see any expected statistics that suggest significant positive regression. Let's take a closer look at his minor league profile and see what he's at least done well in the past.
Triple A Stats (59 games in 2024 and 2025): 262 AB, 13 HR, 40 R, 35 RBI, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, .950 OPS
Those numbers are pretty darn good. For a full triple-A season, Shaw would be on pace for close to 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and 30 steals.
So we know Shaw has the tools to hit at a higher level; he just hasn't been able to do so consistently in his rookie campaign. He's been streaky this year, so it makes sense to be a bit unsure right now as to whether he's turning it around or if a long cold snap is waiting in a few games.
The reality is that we are still dealing with a pretty small sample size, and drawing any major conclusions at this point would likely be irresponsible. However, that's my job and the entire point of this article, so here goes nothing.
Verdict: Shaw has shown some very good plate discipline with a low strike rate and decent walk rate. He has some power in his bat, but has only hit home runs when he can pull pitches right down the line. He is producing nicely in stolen bases and seems to have some job security at the hot corner in Chicago. He's worth rostering right now to see if he can sustain his second-half success, but I wouldn't hesitate to cut him as soon as he goes cold. He could still be a year away from truly breaking out for the Cubs.
Isaac Collins, OF - Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Stats: .883 OPS, 137 wRC+, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 48 R, 13 SB
The Milwaukee Brewers are the feel-good story of the 2025 season. Your average baseball fan would be hard-pressed to name five Brewers on the roster not named Christian Yelich or Freddy Peralta, yet they keep winning baseball games and are now eight games ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central, ready to repeat as champions of the division.
One of the "no-names" who has been instrumental in their successful season and incredible run over the last month is Isaac Collins. He's a former ninth-round pick who appeared in only 11 games last season for Milwaukee. A former Colorado Rockies farmhand, Collins is an unlikely rookie success story as he's already 28 years old.
Since the All-Star Break, Collins is hitting .352 with three home runs, two triples, and seven doubles. He's scored 17 runs and driven in another 18 while swiping three bases.
ISAAC COLLINS #WALKOFF HOMER!
NINE STRAIGHT @BREWERS WINS!SOMETHING SPECIAL IS BREWING IN MILWAUKEE! pic.twitter.com/SzCiqFZmmj
— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025
Collins has always had a plus hit tool and good speed, but he put together his best minor league season last year at Triple-A. He hit 14 home runs, scored 75 runs, and drove in 76 more over 500 plate appearances. He finished with a .273 average and added 24 stolen bases.
What's been impressive about Collins has been his ability to hit for both average and a little bit of power from each side of the plate. He's homered four times as a righty and four times as a lefty. When you add in some very good defense and solid baserunning, he's been far too valuable to take out of the lineup for Milwaukee.
Any time we get a late-bloomer like Collins, there's some skepticism as to whether or not their success is sustainable, especially since Collins wasn't an early-round pick. But I don't see any major red flags in his underlying stats to suggest that it's smoke and mirrors. Collins is in the 94th percentile in chase rate (19.9%), and his plate discipline is further evidenced by being in the 85th percentile in walk rate (12.1%).
Verdict: Collins (like the Brewers) shows no signs of slowing down and is an excellent source of batting average, runs, and stolen bases. He missed a few games recently only because he was on the paternity list as he welcomed his son into the world. Ride Collins down the stretch, I think he's a good bet to continue to provide solid fantasy production.
Jakob Marsee, OF - Miami Marlins
2025 Stats: .1241 OPS, 236 wRC+, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 9 R, 6 SB
While Collins's rise to prominence was a surprise, I'm not sure anyone expected Marsee to be this good out of the gate for Miami. While Collins at least had a pretty solid track record of success in the minors, Marsee had done very little other than steal bases at a high level in the minor leagues.
Yet here we are with Marsee breaking Miami records with one of the hottest starts of any rookie in Marlins' history.
Jakob Marsee's first 17 career games:
.377/.468/.774
4 HR
15 RBI
6 SB
236 wRC+He has the highest OPS (1.246) through 17 career games in Marlins' HISTORY! pic.twitter.com/TVtTbWjc7Q
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 17, 2025
Marsee was just a .239 career hitter across three and a half minor league seasons. He did steal 159 bases, including 47 at Triple-A this year before being called up. He's been great at drawing walks with a BB% of 16% and 12% in his last two seasons at Triple-A, but his current 17.7% K% is about five points better than where it was during his time in the high minors.
There's no doubt that he's making some impressive contact right now. He has a 14% barrel% and a 53% HardHit% through his first 58 at-bats. So while his BABIP of .421 is insanely high and likely to regress, he's still shown the type of quantity and quality of contact to believe that he can keep hitting for a high average.
I think the power numbers are pretty fluky based on his minor league profile and a very unsustainable 26.7% HR/FB. However, this is a hitter who has shown the ability to get on base with a high walk rate and has the type of speed to pile up extra-base hits and stolen bases.
Verdict: Marsee is playing over his head, but it's quite possible that even after he comes back down to earth that he's good enough to keep providing solid production, especially in batting average and stolen bases. He should be more widely rostered (48% of Yahoo! leagues) as he's done enough already to show us that he can stick in the major leagues. Miami has no reason not to let him play out the season, and he could even stick at the top of the lineup with his speed if he can keep hitting.
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