Fantasy Football League Winners: Breakouts and Sleepers That Won Championships

Corbin Young examined macro-level trends as an early look at the fantasy football breakouts and sleepers that helped managers win this season. These players and reasons won fantasy football leagues in 2025.

We're heading into Week 18, and most fantasy football leagues have finished. Congratulations if you won leagues or cashed money because it's a grind to make it to the playoffs and survive the variance of a one-week season. A reminder that we're dealing with small samples in a given season, particularly in small portions of the season.

A lot of information and projections can change with injuries, team usage, and player performances, even when we're looking ahead a few weeks. What contributed to fantasy managers winning leagues? What players were crucial in the final weeks of the season?

We'll examine macro-level trends across the league, with notable data from the 2025 season. Then we'll see which players performed well in the final few games of the season to propel fantasy managers into and throughout the playoffs. Finally, we'll cover several breakouts and sleepers who displayed consistent usage and production in the final weeks.

Macro-Level Trends

Instead of immediately digging into player-level data to argue over who won leagues, each league and situation needs context. An example would be having Tony Pollard, Zach Charbonnet, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt in starting lineups in the fantasy championship game. However, most managers with those three players likely struggled throughout the season.

On the flip side, we have Puka Nacua, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Bucky Irving score under 10 fantasy points in Week 17 after posting high-end performances in several games.

The first macro-level trend involves the most kick return yardage in history since Pro Football Reference started tracking it in 1941. That's mainly because of the new kick return rules. In 2025, teams averaged over 100 kick return yards per game.

The visual below shows the yearly data for kick and punt returns since 2010. That's wild since the league has averaged under 65 kick return yards in 14 consecutive seasons.

Those 100 kick return yards per team game led to the most all-purpose yards. With over 100 kick return yards, we've seen fewer offensive yards. Specifically, teams have been averaging 211.5 passing yards, the lowest since 2008. Interestingly, the league-wide passing touchdowns have remained above 4.5 percent, as seen below.

We've also seen better completion rates, with slightly fewer pass attempts per game over the past few seasons. Although the league-wide rushing yards per game is shaded red in 2025, it's mainly because the data dates back to 1932, with significant rushing yardage in the 1950s and 1970s.

Over the past five seasons, the league averaged 115 rushing yards or more in four of them. When we remove the 2020 season as an outlier, there were two out of 10 seasons when the league posted 115 rushing yards or more, as seen below.

Yes, we love pass-catching running backs. However, we've seen a few run-heavy players thrive, such as Quinshon Judkins, James Cook, and Derrick Henry. With passing yardage down, it makes sense that receiving yardage declines in 2025, the lowest since 2008. That's especially true when we have teams playing more 12- and 13-personnel like the Rams, Bills, and Steelers.

Among the 22 running backs with a 50 percent rush share or higher in Weeks 1-17, eight had a target share under 10 percent. That list includes Judkins, Cook, Henry, Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, J.K. Dobbins, and Jaylen Warren, thanks to Kenneth Gainwell's 16 percent target share (No. 6).

Offenses have averaged the second-most points per drive (2.13) in Pro Football Reference history, besides 2020 (2.20). In some cases, we could argue that defenses could be better at stopping the pass game, becoming smarter, or it's some outlier data. However, it's worth noting that team drives ended in a turnover at the lowest percentage ever (10.5 percent). Interestingly, we've seen a league-wide trend toward limiting turnovers to end drives.

Don't overlook dominant rushers like Cook, Henry, and others if they play on above-average offenses that tend to lean on the run game.

League-Winning Performances

During the playoffs, we had 12 players averaging 20 or more fantasy points per game in Weeks 14-17. Although the fantasy playoffs typically occur in Weeks 15-17, Week 14 was a pivotal week, with 3-4 games being a relatively small sample.

Michael Wilson and Kyle Pitts Sr. were likely the only players who weren't drafted in the top four rounds. Wilson was a waiver-wire gem with Pitts posting a career-best 45.6 fantasy points in Week 15 against the Buccaneers.

Breakout performances come when a player's usage and efficiency align. Among the top 36 running backs, receivers, and tight ends in Weeks 14-17, only Amon-Ra St. Brown (-1.7), Trey McBride (-0.5), Courtland Sutton (-1.6), Barkley (-0.2), Jonathan Taylor (-2.5), and Mike Evans (-1.7) averaged negative fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G).

The visual below shows the top 24 in fantasy points per game for RB, WR, and TE in Weeks 14-17.

If you hung onto Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase, they came through for managers in Week 17. Travis Etienne Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Parker Washington, Luther Burden III, and Harold Fannin Jr. were several other unexpected contributors in Weeks 14-17, from the context that fantasy managers didn't expect a significant impact before the season began.

Stevenson and Washington might be the two most fragile based on their team contexts. That's mainly because Henderson should see a continued workload increase in Year 2, though we could argue that he'll continue to share snaps and touches with Stevenson or another back. It's worth noting that Stevenson handled 67 percent of the snaps, 26 percent of the team's rush attempts, and a 12 percent target share in Weeks 14-17.

Washington posted two of his highest career receiving yardage totals in Week 16 against the Broncos and Week 17 versus the Colts, with only one other game with 100 receiving yards coming in Week 13 of the 2024 season.

During Weeks 14-17, Washington led the Jaguars in receiving yards (313), air yards share (30 percent), and was second in target share (23 percent). The most surprising part involves Washington posting career bests with Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brenton Strange healthy.

Fannin was the best Browns player in 2025 besides Judkins. In the final two games, Fannin scored the third-most fantasy points per game behind George Kittle and Chig Okonkwo at the tight end position. Besides those three, Juwan Johnson and McBride were the two other tight ends who scored over 15 fantasy points per game in Weeks 16-17.

Fantasy Football Breakout Players

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, CLE

Fannin had the fifth-highest expected fantasy points per game among tight ends, tying him with Tyler Warren. Fannin and Warren trailed McBride, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, and Pitts in expected fantasy points per game in 2025. Furthermore, Fannin had the fifth-highest first-read target share among tight ends. The Browns arguably had some of the most brutal receiving production, as seen below.

He played on an awful Browns' offense, which ranked 24th in neutral script pass rate, last in EPA per offensive play, and second-to-last in team points per game. Fannin was likely a waiver-wire pickup in most leagues, who provided stability at the tight end position on one of the worst offenses.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX

Can a player break out a second time? After tons of hype for Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten, Etienne was the forgotten running back. Etienne had the second-highest fantasy points total (249.1) in 2025, ranking as RB12 in PPR/G. That coincided with Trevor Lawrence ranking as QB1 in Weeks 12-17, averaging over 29 fantasy points per game. During Weeks 12-17, Etienne scored the 18th-most fantasy points per game among all RB, WR, and TE, leading to RB8.

The volume was favorable, as Etienne handled 31% of the team's opportunities, leading the Jaguars during Weeks 12-17. Etienne averaged 18.3 opportunities per game (No. 12) among running backs. Efficiency was in Etienne's favor, as he ranked 14th in expected fantasy points per game, yet fifth in FPOE/G in Weeks 12-17.

The visual below shows the players who averaged 2.0 or more FPOE/G in Weeks 12-17.

Michael Wilson, WR, ARI

This is where context matters. Since Week 6, when Jacoby Brissett took over, the Cardinals ranked first in neutral script pass rate (66 percent), as one of five teams with a 60 percent pass rate or higher. Regardless, Wilson ranked second in PPR/G (21.3) behind Nacua (24.6) since Week 11 when Wilson broke out.

Wilson earned the 13th-highest target share and 10th-highest air yards share in Weeks 11-17, translating into the 12th-highest Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). That suggests Wilson's usage was a near-elite, indicating his breakout was legitimate. There will be question marks heading into 2026 with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray healthy, while potentially not having Brissett, who gave us Jameis Winston-type vibes. When we add in the running back injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson, we could have a more balanced offense in 2026.

Fantasy Football Sleepers

Matthew Stafford, QB, LA

Stafford was likely a late-round pick or waiver wire pickup in most 1-QB leagues. In Weeks 14-17, Stafford was QB6, averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game. He compiled 450 fantasy points (458.2), the second-highest of his career besides the 2021 season (464.6). Stafford has been efficient, ranking fifth in FPOE/G via his 8.0 yards per attempt (second-highest of his career) and most passing touchdowns (42).

He, Nacua, and Davante Adams have been monsters at their given positions, leading to talks about the Rams having one of the best offenses before Week 17. In the age of rushing quarterbacks being more highly valued, Stafford remains a rare and dying breed.

The visual below shows the quarterback leaders in FPOE/G during Weeks 14-17, including their rushing expected points.

Stafford was the only quarterback with under 1.0 rushing expected points per game in Weeks 14-17. These types of passers can have efficient seasons, which can occur when players like Stafford have elite pass catchers who score on tons of passing touchdowns.

Tyler Shough, QB, NO

Some made fun of Shough because of his age (25 years old) as a rookie, but he ranked ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy points during Weeks 14-17. Shough averaged the seventh-most passing yards (264.2) and ninth-most rush attempts per game in Weeks 14-17, suggesting he might have more dual-threat upside. He boasted the fifth-highest accurate throw rate, 10th in adjusted yards per attempt, and fifth in completion rate over expected (CPOE) in Weeks 14-17. We want a quarterback paired with Kellen Moore, and Shough should be a sleeper late-round quarterback in 2026.

Luther Burden III, WR, CHI

Burden was a sleeper for many managers, especially in the middle to late rounds. The problem was Burden's lack of usage. Before Week 10, Burden hadn't posted a route percentage above 40 percent. Burden was efficient down the stretch, but didn't have a full-time role in Weeks 10-17.

Burden's weekly usage from Weeks 10 to 17 is below.

The per-route numbers look amazing for Burden. He had the fourth-highest target per route rate (27 percent) and the fourth-highest yards per route run (2.98). Among the pass catchers with 2.50 yards per route run or higher, Dalton Kincaid, Burden, Greg Dulcich, Bo Melton, and Xavier Smith had a route share below 50 percent. Jalen McMillan would be on that list if we increased the route share threshold to 60 percent.

With the recent production, per-route numbers, and juicy prospect profile, Burden will likely be steamed up draft boards in 2026. There's a ton to project with more routes from Burden, though there's a chance that a healthy Rome Odunze and Year 2 with Colston Loveland eat into the team's target share. It's also worth noting that the Bears deployed 12-Personnel with two tight ends at the seventh-highest rate.

RJ Harvey, RB, DEN

All the rookie needed was an injury to Dobbins. Jokes aside, the Broncos continued to mix in other running backs with Harvey after Dobbins' injury. Since Week 11 without Dobbins, Harvey led the Broncos, with a 62 percent snap share, 52 percent of the rush attempts, and an 11 percent target share. Jaleel McLaughlin had the second-highest team rush share (19 percent), with Adam Prentice behind Harvey in snap share (27 percent).

Harvey was efficient, averaging 1.8 FPOE/G (No. 20) in Weeks 11-17 as one of seven running backs with 1.0 or more FPOE/G and 15 expected fantasy points per game. The other running backs were Henry, Bijan Robinson, Brown, Gibbs, Cook, and Christian McCaffrey. Gainwell just missed the 15 expected point threshold, with 14.9 in Weeks 11-17 with 2.3 FPOE/G.

The usage in Weeks 11-17 aligned with Harvey's collegiate workload at UCF. Harvey boasted the fourth-highest missed tackles forced per attempt with the second-highest rate of breakaway runs throughout his college career among the 2025 rookie running backs. However, we didn't have a high rate of explosive runs (3.1 percent) for Harvey, with a decent missed tackles forced rate.

Harvey had 15 or more opportunities in four of the past six games, with 20 or more in three of them. Some of Harvey's production was somewhat touchdown-dependent, with five rushing and one receiving score in Weeks 11-17. Assuming Harvey remains the lead running back, with 50 percent or more of the rush attempts and a double-digit target share, as we saw in Weeks 11-17, we should want to buy into this type of profile.

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