RADIO
Jon Denzler previews the top 10 outfielder prospects in dynasty league baseball to start the 2019 offseason. These OF could be buy-low candidates or draft values in keeper leagues.
Outfield prospects are fascinating right now, as with the graduation of Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, there are new names near the top of the rankings to learn. This does not mean a drop in talent though, as the current crop of players is easy to dream on for fantasy owners with a mix of organizational fit and tools that lift their fantasy profile. The other trend to watch is that there has been a run on prep bats recently early in the amateur draft, which means that the names appearing below fit into that profile with a ton of projectability. Add to that, four of the names below are international signings, showing the strength of that market. The overall mix means that the outfield prospects on fantasy radars are young, and should debut sooner than later with high ceilings to help fantasy teams.
Comparing the current list to the other two this writer has written, on catchers and starting pitchers, this is the deepest list. While owners need to shoot for the top in other places, with this group, adding the number nine player still has a high enough ceiling to offer real value.
With that, start taking notes, and look to add these prospects in dynasty drafts to boost your squad in 2019 and beyond.
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Eloy Jimenez (OF, CWS)
ETA: 2019
Jiminez is the natural player to top this list, and perhaps, might be a better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. This is not to downgrade this skills but to notice that the risk of batting average might hurt him with the Sox, but the rest of the profile plays in fantasy scoring. Jiminez has raked since moving to the Southside from the Cubs and has also added double-digit power numbers as he has moved up the ladder.
In 55 games at Triple-A to end the year. Jiminez slashed .355/.399/.597 with 12 homers and 28 runs. He has not shown much speed on the bases since eight steals in 2016, but this is not key to the overall profile. Look for this to be an average hit tool, with above average power, and a good enough glove to keep him in the field.
Victor Robles (OF, WAS)
ETA: already debuted
Robles could be the top prospect on this list but also would need to breakout like Soto did last year to move up. The good news for owners is that Robles should make the team out of Spring Training, especially if Bryce Harper leaves Washington. Robles debuted last year, and over 21 games he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three homers and three steals.
Long-term expect Robles to hit well, steal a ton of bases, and add average power to round out the profile. The K rate is a bit high for a contact hitter, but also could be something that grows once he is in the Majors to stay. Robles has a great floor, and while might not ever be the top player at the position, offers a nice mix in roto leagues that gives him a ton of value for fantasy owners.
Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU)
ETA: already debuted
Tucker is in an interesting spot with the Astros, as he might be their best trade chip if they want to add a pitcher this winter. Also, it looks like Tucker will not be the starting left fielder from day one based on how he was used down the stretch last year. And yet, the talent is there, and he is still one of the top young outfielders in the game. While struggling in 28 games with Houston last year, in which he slashed .141/.236/.203, the track record is still there.
For example, in 2018 at Triple-A, he slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. Tucker has a good eye, as seen by the walk rates, and shows enough power to make up for the strikeouts. Tucker looks to be a five-tool player who does not show plus-plus at any point but will do everything well. The highest floor on the list, the risk is there, but mostly due to the risk of a deal than the skills.
Alex Kirilloff (OF, MIN)
ETA: late 2019/2020
After being drafted in the first round in 2016, Kirilloff was a name to know from the start, but also seems to have seen his stock jump more than any other player on this list. Even after missing 2017 due to injury, a strong showing in 2018 at A-ball, and High-A places him right back in the hunt. The hit tool is there with .330 batting averages the norm so far in his career, even if those will come down a bit with better pitching. Besides, a few homers and steals complete the profile for a well-rounded player.
Kirilloff is a step down from Robles but might post a bit more power to make up for the clear downgrade on the basepaths. The other good news for fantasy owners is that his timetable seems to be on pace with the Twins competitive window to challenge Cleveland. In two years, the Twins should have a legitimate shot to challenge for the division, and Kirilloff will be a significant piece of that push. While there will be no Juan Soto this year, Kirilloff is the best fit for a young prospect who can jump fast and have an immediate impact.
Jo Adell (OF, LAA)
ETA: 2020
Adell seems to have the most helium of any of the prospects on this list, and while the upside is there, scouts still question his ability to make regular contact. Splitting 2018 between High-A and Double-A, Adell hit 14 homers in 74 games demonstrating plus raw power. Add in 11 steals, and the fantasy value is apparent. The downside, and why is he lower on this list that others in the industry, would be the 28% K rate, with only a six percent walk line to balance that out. Still, Adell scores runs, with 60 over the 2018 campaign, or 0.81 per game, putting him near the top in the minor leagues.
Even with some of the offensive concerns, Adell has one of the best arms in the Los Angeles organization and will play out as at least an average fielder in the corners. This means that the production does not need to be elite for him to stay in a lineup spot for a team that needs cheap batters to balance out some contracts. Adell is a definite talent and might be a legit top 20 at the position based on expected production, but owners should look to the questions in the profile, and slot him a bit lower than where he is currently being selected in mocks.
Jesus Sanchez (OF, TB)
ETA: 2020
For fantasy players who are not glued to the minors and prospect rankings, this might be the surprise name on the list. Sanchez has been a slow mover, as he is only expected to open the year at Double-A in 2019 after starting professional ball in 2015. The good news is that he is still only 21, and has produced so far in his career. For example, at High-A last year, in 90 games, he slashed .301/.331/.462 with 10 homers and six steals.
The unusual piece of the profile so far has been the great OBP numbers but a low walk rate. This means that Sanchez might regress a bit, but there are enough other pieces to make this a good fantasy player. Sanchez will hit for an average batting line, but make up for it with run production and power. A deep outfield in Tampa Bay might limit his chances with the team, but by 2020 he should be ready to compete for a spot.
Christian Pache (OF, ATL)
ETA: 2021
Perhaps the best defender on this list, Pache is the best bet to stay in center longterm, and earn playing time even if he doesn't hit. The good news is that the bat is starting to come around, and a good Arizona Fall League performance only helps solidify the long-term options. Ending the year at Double-A, Pache looks to be a fast mover even though he will start the year at 20 years old. Pache grades out as a top speed option, but the steals dropped as he moved up the minor league ladder.
For Pache to be a top fantasy option, he will need to steal 30 or more bases a year, and that would see him return to his early professional form. Power should be there to add 12 or more a year, but this is a profile at relies most on playing time. Pache is a good sleeper prospect target, who will not flash the production of others on this list, but in quantity, might overshadow the rate stats.
Victor Mesa (OF, MIA)
ETA: ??
The biggest question mark on the list, but also offers upside that no one of the list can match. Since he just signed with the Marlins after leaving Cuba, Mesa has no track record in American ball, and therefore a lack of stats to go on for the ranking. His tools do rate out well, so the projectability is there, and should be an easy risk for teams later in dynasty drafts.
The good news is that owners can count on Mesa for a great defensive profile with plus speed. Add this to a projected plus bat, and the profile should play on most teams. The other thing is that at 22, he should be close to the Majors with some time to develop and show his skills. He could shoot up the list, or drop after some time in pro ball, but the high reward is there for the risk.
Taylor Trammell (OF, CIN)
ETA: 2020
Trammell splits opinions in the fantasy industry, with some ranking him as the top option for outfielders, but others view him as slowing his development with the progression up the minors. The batting average has dropped with every promotion, and the K rate has also increased. So there is a bit of risk in the profile, but the power and speed profile seems worth the risk. In 2018, Trammell hit eight homers and stole 25 bases in 110 games at High-A.
The other piece in the profile to watch is the walk rate, as he has been above ten percent so far in his career, and this has helped to push the OBP line up as well. The other question will be the glove, as it seems that he will need to play a corner outfield spot, but might not have the bat to stay there is the current trends keep up. If owners have Trammell, this might be a chance to sell-high, but if he is free in leagues, also seems to be too appealing an option to ignore.
Luis Robert (OF, CWS)
ETA: 2021
Robert is the other Cuban defector to make the list, and like Mesa has some questions on the profile. What makes him different is the track record from already playing with the White Sox for the past few seasons. When he signed with Chicago the ceiling was sky high, and the expectation that the bat might make him one of the better hitting options to come over from Cuba. So far in the minors, the production has been mixed.
The batting average is there, but he has shown little to no power. In fact, since Rookie ball in 2017, he has hit no homers. Robert will need to show the pop to have a longterm chance to play with a Big League club, but the raw skills cannot be ignored. He does grade as above average regarding speed and has shown the ability to steal based in his time so far. If the power does not come around, the best owners can hope for is a Michael Brantley comp with a high average and some speed early in his career. If the skills translate, this could still be an MVP candidate at some point in the next decade.
