Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 4: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 4 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets.

Thunder Dan here, your friendly neighborhood handicapper! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week four of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week's Props: 4-6
• Season-to-Date Props: 13-14

Note: Straight props only, parlays not included

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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 3

PASSING/RUSHING/RECEIVING YARDS

Josh Allen over 286.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

This is a big number, sure, but Allen has gone over it all three times this year and cruised over it to 400 yards passing last week even in the loss to Miami. Baltimore can stop the run, but they can’t stop the pass and have allowed 353 yards passing on average this season including that terrible meltdown against Tua and the Phins. Allen should smash this number this week.

Saquon Barkley over 80.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Last week Barkley had 81 rushing yards against the Cowboys, but on only 14 attempts as the Giants were trailing in the second half and forced to throw more. I think he has a more positive game script here against the Bears at home, and Chicago has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opponents at 157 per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 DK)

Stevenson’s prop is lower than Damien Harris’s by two yards, despite the fact that Rhamondre went 12-73 last week and Harris went 11-41. Stevenson is just the more dynamic back and I think he will slowly start to get more carries for this offense. With Brian Hoyer under center, I think we should expect New England to run the ball a ton with their #1 DVOA run offense against the Packers who rank 31st in DVOA rush defense.

Michael Pittman Jr. over 69.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Pittman sat out in week 2 but came back last week with another solid performance going 8-72 on 9 targets. I think the Colts will need to air it out here as Tennesee will look to key in on Jonathan Taylor and attempt to stop the run. Pittman’s massive target share and lock on the WR1 role in this offense means he will likely be very much involved again this week, I am expecting a big game from him.

Christian Kirk over 61.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Kirk has cleared this number in all three games this year and I am expecting him to be heavily targeted by Trevor Lawrence against Philly. Kirk lines up in the slot over half the time and that’s where they can exploit Philly. We should see a pass-heavy game script from Jacksonville here as I think they’ll be playing from behind and likely not able to get the run game going against a stout Philly front four.

Anytime Touchdowns

A.J. Brown ( +115 DK)

I love A.J. to score his second TD as an Eagle this week. The Eagles are projected for 26 points in this game and despite only having one TD through three games, Brown has a whopping 41% Red Zone target rate. Jacksonville has yet to give up a rushing touchdown but has allowed five TDs through the air.

David Njoku (+195 DK)

The Falcons have allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game through three games this season, this Browns team has such a great match-up this week. While the Browns running backs and Amari Cooper have been hogging most of the TDs so far, we saw Njoku get his last week and his involvement spike with 9 catches on 10 targets. He has a 35% RZ target share which is massive and I love these odds on a guy with such upside in this game.

Receptions

Tyler Lockett over 5.5 (-130 DK)

T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 (+110 DK)

Diontae Johnson over 5.5 (-110 DK)

CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 (+120 DK)

We have three target monsters in good spots here with Lockett, Johnson, and Lamb all sitting at 5.5 despite having double-digit targets in every game (Lockett has 11 last two games, but had only 4 in week one).

Hockenson is nice value here as he averaged 9 targets per game last year when St. Brown missed and I think we see him and Josh Reynolds (also a plus value at o4.5) pick up most of the slack there.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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