RADIO
Welcome to the second round of the fantasy football playoffs! If you’re reading this, congratulations are likely in order as your team is still dancing. Of course, there’s also the possibility you’re reading this because you’ve been eliminated, but you’re a degenerate and not ready to say goodbye to fantasy football for this season, and to that, I say you are most welcome, and my condolences.
This week, we’re going to do something I haven’t typically done and that's focusing on a few injured players unlikely to return. Normally, these are the players I ignore on the Cut List, but due to the star power behind some of the names, I felt it worthwhile to touch on a few of them.
Let’s look at some of the players you can safely send to the waiver wire for Week 16. We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 16. As always, if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.
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Running Backs to Cut for Week 16?
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – 100% Rostered
Jonathan Taylor has been diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain. These types of injuries generally take 4-6 weeks to heal. Even if Taylor is on the very short end of that timeline at 2-3 weeks, that still has him missing Weeks 16 and 17.
#Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain sustained in Saturday’s game against the #Vikings, sources say. He’s still meeting with doctors, but it’s considered highly unlikely that he’ll play again this season.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 19, 2022
With the Colts’ season all but over, it would make all the sense in the world to shut Taylor down for the season. As you can see from above, early reports are already indicating just that. As painful as it may be to cut Taylor during the playoffs, it doesn’t make any sense to hold onto him anymore.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – 80% Rostered
Dameon Pierce has been phenomenal as a rookie. I truly do not think people appreciate just what he’s done this season. Despite missing last week’s game, he’s still ninth in rushing yards this season. He also has averaged 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, which is fourth in the NFL. He has also registered 27 broken tackles, which is tied for second behind only Josh Jacobs. He’s been amazing despite his environment.
Still, with him being on IR, fantasy managers need to cut Pierce and add literally anyone else to their roster. Take advantage of the extra space.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns – 78% Rostered
Fantasy managers who drafted Kareem Hunt were hoping to get someone who had RB3 standalone value, but who also came with RB1 upside in the event of a Nick Chubb injury. Instead, all they got was a very expensive handcuff.
Hunt has made this list before, along with A.J. Dillon, who had been in a similar situation, but now seems to be trending in a slightly better trajectory. However, Nick Chubb has made Hunt irrelevant. There’s no shame in that. After all, Chubb is one of the best running backs in the league.
However, Hunt has just two games with more than 10 half-PPR points this season. He hasn’t been above 10 since Week 5. He hasn’t registered 10 carries in a game since Week 8. He’s averaging just 2.5 targets per game and unfortunately, that hasn’t improved with Deshaun Watson. The last time he finished with more than two receptions was also back in Week 8.
Since the team’s Week 9 bye, Hunt is averaging just 4.2 half-PPR points per game. Earlier in the season, the team had been splitting the goal line carries and red zone opportunities between Hunt and Chubb, but that hasn’t been the case as of late. Hunt hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7.
If you’re looking for a reason to hold Hunt, he remains one of the better handcuffs in fantasy football; however, Chubb is healthy heading into Week 16, so that contingency value is essentially evaporated.
Update: Starter, Nick Chubb was listed as a DNP at practice on Tuesday with a foot injury. Very little information is known about the injury at this time or if his weekly availability is up in the air, but if Chubb is out, Kareem Hunt would be a solid RB2 play.
Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins – 78% Rostered
Back in Weeks 9 and 10, it looked like Jeff Wilson Jr. was going to be a league-winner. In his first two games with Miami, he had racked up 36 half-PPR points and had 26 carries total to go along with five receptions. That all changed coming out of the team’s bye in Week 11.
With a dream matchup in Week 12 against the Texans, Wilson disappointed. He finished with just 39 rushing yards on 13 carries and left the game due to an injury. In Week 13, with Raheem Mostert back in the fold, Wilson took a backseat to Mostert, garnering just a single carry. Then in Week 14, Wilson once again was injured, this time hurting his hip, an injury that would keep him out again this past weekend.
Even if he’s able to return to action this upcoming weekend in a great matchup vs. the Packers, will fantasy managers be able to trust him? Back in Weeks 13 and 14, he had been working behind Mostert, and now he could very well be on a snap count. It’s not an ideal situation.
In Week 17, the Dolphins will face off against their division rivals, the New England Patriots. They’ve been a brutal matchup for opposing running backs this season. The Patriots’ defense has allowed just 15.8 half-PPR points to running backs this season. Only the 49ers have been better.
Wilson cannot be trusted in Week 16 and in Week 17 and has one of the hardest matchups for running backs. Fantasy managers would need to be awfully desperate to need to use Wilson in either week.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots – 55% Rostered
Much like Jeff Wilson, this comes down to when can you trust him. While it’s definitely Rhamondre Stevenson season, it didn’t exactly start out that way. It seems like a lifetime ago, but through the first four weeks of the season, Harris had 53 carries, 246 rushing yards, and three touchdowns. He also chipped in with nine targets, seven receptions, and 29 receiving yards. However, since then, Harris hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
In his absence, Stevenson has taken over the lion’s share of the backfield duties and has performed excellently in that role. With the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth, it’s hard to imagine them altering that now. Harris has missed the last few games and while it seems likely he’ll return in Week 16, fantasy managers simply cannot trust him in their lineups.
They’ll play the Bengals in Week 16, who have given up just 18.8 half-PPR points to running backs this season. That’s the 11th-fewest in the league. The matchup that is much more appealing is Week 17 against the Dolphins. They’ve allowed the ninth-most points to running backs this season at 21.7.
In larger leagues, Harris may be worth holding for that Week 17 matchup, but otherwise, he’s safe to cut. Starting Harris in Weeks 16 or 17 requires a major leap of faith most fantasy managers understandably won’t have the stomach for in a must-win game.
Wide Receivers to Cut for Week 16?
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers – 93% Rostered
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Deebo Samuel will be out “three-ish” weeks. He missed Week 15 already, which means he’s unlikely to play in Week 16 or 17. However, “three-ish” could technically be two, three, or even four. If it’s three or more, he misses Week 17, which is the fantasy football championship for the vast majority of leagues.
Shanahan's expectation is that Deebo Samuel will return in "3-ish" weeks
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 13, 2022
If by some miracle, he’s able to return for their Week 17 contest, fantasy managers will need to determine if they can trust him in their starting lineups. It’s a great matchup against the Raiders, but it’s highly likely he’d be on a snap count in such a scenario.
There’s also the fact that Samuel has somewhat struggled since Christian McCaffrey’s arrival. Since Week 10, which is the first game Samuel played with CMC, he’s averaged 10.5 half-PPR points. That’s not terrible, but it’s a long shot from what fantasy managers were expecting when they drafted him as a top-10 receiver.
The chances of Samuel being active in Week 17 are slim. The chances of you feeling confident enough to start Deebo in his first game back (after spraining his knee and ankle and having a two-game absence) in your championship game are even slimmer. And if you make it through both of those scenarios, the chances of Samuel not disappointing you while playing on a snap count is borderline impossible.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys – 73% Rostered
Fantasy managers knew that it was going to take some time before Michael Gallup got his feet underneath him following his late-season ACL tear last year; however, we’re now entering Week 16 and there hasn’t been much to hang your hat on.
In recent weeks, he began playing ahead of Noah Brown on two receiver sets and his snaps and routes had been increasing. Still, he has just one game all season with more than 50 receiving yards. His lone double-digit game came on the back of two touchdown passes. Without those, his 16.3 half-PPR performance that week would’ve been just 4.3.
The team recently signed T.Y. Hilton and owner Jerry Jones made some pretty definitive comments that Odell Beckham Jr. would be signing with Dallas. That’s not ideal. Even worse was the fact that Noah Brown thoroughly outplayed him this past week.
Gallup finished with just two targets, one reception, and two yards whereas Brown had nine targets, six receptions, 49 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s trending in the wrong direction and a tough Week 16 matchup against Philadelphia won’t make things any easier.
Tight Ends to Drop in Week 16?
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – 71% Rostered
I get it, Cole Kmet has been pretty, pretty good since Week 8. Since that time, he’s averaged 10.4 half-PPR points per game and has three of seven games with double-digits. However, he has scored 72.9 points over that time and 30 of them have come via touchdowns.
Dating back to 2021, Kmet had gone 106 targets without a touchdown. From Weeks 8-15, he scored five on 37 targets. Prior to Week 8, Kmet had a 0.013% career touchdown rate. From Weeks 8-15, his touchdown rate was 13.51%. I don’t want to take anything away from his solid stretch of games, but we do need to acknowledge just how much of it has been fueled by touchdowns and how much that has been an outlier throughout his career.
Since Week 8, Kmet has been held to under 45 yards receiving in five of seven games. During his incredible seven-game stretch, while his targets per game have increased, they’re still at just 5.28, which over a full 17-game season is just under 90 targets. The volume is decent, but don’t mistake it for being good, much less great.
All that said, the real reason he’s on the cut list is because of his Week 16 matchup. Kmet is a streamer. He’s not a player fantasy managers need to hold onto and he’s far from a set-it-and-forget-it tight end. In Week 16, the Chicago Bears will face off against the Buffalo Bills and they’ve been one of the worst matchups for tight ends this season. The Bills have allowed just 6.4 half-PPR points per game to tight ends.
Fading Fast – On the Hot Seat
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 84%
In the past two weeks, Rachaad White has settled into the primary early-down back, while Leonard Fournette has worked as the primary pass-catcher. On normal teams, that would mean White is the more preferred player, but with how poorly the Buccaneers have been at running the football and the high rate at which Tom Brady throws to his running backs, Fournette may just be the more valuable player out of this backfield.
In Week 14, White paced the backfield with 39 snaps to Fournette’s 35. However, Fournette ran 30 routes to White’s 20, which led to Fournette finishing with seven targets to White’s five. He finished with 8.2 half-PPR points after losing a game, which is something he did in Week 13 as well. Despite only having four carries to White’s 13, Fournette had just 0.6 points less than White, finishing with 7.6.
This past weekend, things got even worse for White. Fournette went back to being the lead back, finishing with 43 snaps to White’s 29. He also had more routes run than White (25-15), more targets (4-2), and just one fewer carry (10-11).
Despite getting one fewer carry, Fournette finished as the team’s leading rusher with 44 yards. He also finished with 9.4 half-PPR points to White’s 4.8. What really hurts White’s fantasy value moving forward is that Fournette handled 100% of the snaps in the two-minute drill and five of the team’s seven snaps at the goal line. Fournette still seems to be the preferred pass-catching option and the running back the team will use near the goal line.
White looked like, for a hot second, that he was trending to RB2 status, but he’s still just a low-level RB3. Their utilization from Week 15 casts an even bigger question around White’s fantasy viability and just how high of a ceiling he actually has.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills – 53% Rostered
In Week 13, James Cook and Devin Singletary played roughly the same number of snaps. However, it was Cook who had more carries, more routes run, more targets, more receptions, and more overall yards. It looked like, for a moment in time, Cook might be on the verge of becoming the team’s 1A.
In Week 14, while the snaps between Cook and Singletary stayed roughly the same again, Singletary got back to leading the team in touches and yards. However, the fact that the snaps stayed roughly the same gave Cook a fighting chance.
Their Week 15 utilization pretty much slammed that door shut. Singletary played 46 snaps to Cook’s 28. A definite move in the wrong direction. Even worse was that Singletary paced the backfield in routes run (22-15), targets (4-3), and carries (13-5). Singletary received all of the goal line snaps, split the two-minute drill 50/50, and played on more third downs. While Cook did catch a touchdown, technically giving him the better fantasy day, his utilization resorted back to complete fantasy irrelevance.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills – 95% Rostered
Entering the season, Gabriel Davis was seen by some as a potential WR2. However, most analysts viewed him as a WR3. He’s actually the WR36 in half-PPR PPG on the season. Depending if you use a minimum game-played requirement, he might end up at WR34 or WR35. Either way, no matter what you expected of Davis, he’s likely disappointed you.
He has just four double-digit performances this season. Almost a quarter of his points came in one game and he’s been held below six half-PPR points on six occasions. He hasn’t scored more than 10 points in a game since Week 10.
Realistically, fantasy managers need to view Davis as a boom or bust-WR3. He’s still playable most weeks in any 12-team league because of the ceiling he offers, but Davis has been far from the consistent, week-to-week option that he was being touted as this offseason.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals – 85% Rostered
We all remember just how well Marquise Brown played over the first six games this season before he got injured. He was averaging 14.67 half-PPR points per game and was on pace for 181 targets, 122 receptions, 1,374 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was playing like a true alpha receiver and set-and-forget WR1 for fantasy.
However, since returning from his injury, it’s been a whole new world. For starters, DeAndre Hopkins was not active for a single game during Brown’s epic start to the season. In Week 14, Kyler Murray also tore his ACL, and in Week 15, Colt McCoy left the game with a concussion.
In his three games since returning, Brown has averaged just 4.22 half-PPR points per game. While he has earned eight targets in each contest, he has yet to finish with more than 50 receiving yards or find the end zone. After averaging 11.27 yards per reception in Weeks 1-6, Brown is averaging just 7.07 yards in his last three games. Things will not get any easier if McCoy is forced to miss their Week 16 game as well.
His target volume should keep him glued to fantasy rosters, but his team situation and lackluster performances since returning from injury also require that his place on fantasy rosters right now is on the bench.
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