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Dak Prescott or Kenny Pickett - who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Luke analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Dak Prescott to Kenny Pickett for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of QBs Dak Prescott and Kenny Pickett and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
QB12 - ADP: 94th Overall
Dak Prescott is prepared to enter a season with high expectations while being fully healthy. With the departures of Ezekiel Ellot and Dalton Schultz, the team is optimistic that the development of Tony Pollard and Jake Ferguson will lead to a better offensive performance in 2023. Couple this with the addition of Brandin Cooks, who has amassed 1,000 yards receiving in six out of nine seasons, and there is potential for Dallas to be a top-5 scoring offense this year.
Entering his eighth season in the NFL, Prescott is looking to overcome the past year, when he missed 5 games and finished as the QB18 in fantasy. In the 12 games he started, he accounted for 2,860 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, Prescott did not have other receivers that he could truly count on, which heavily contributed to him only having six top-10 quarterback fantasy finishes.
However, this season he will have a massive upgrade at WR2. Brandin Cooks has done nothing but produce since he entered the league in 2014. Regardless of who has been at quarterback, Cooks has seen success, amassing 65 or more receptions in six of his nine seasons. Alongside Lamb and a returning Michael Gallup, Prescott now has his best receiving corps since Amari Cooper was in Dallas.
In 2021 when he had the star-studded duo of Cooper and Lamb, Dak accounted for 4,449 passing yards, 37 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also posted 11 top-12 quarterback finishes in fantasy and finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback for the season. With the optimism surrounding Lamb, and the acquisition of Cooks, there is potential for Prescott to return to this form.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
QB24 - ADP: 203rd Overall
Kenny Pickett is coming off of a rookie campaign where he showed flashes of his potential, leading the Steelers to wins in five of their final six games and barely missing the playoffs at 9-8. Pickett made great strides taking care of the ball over the second half of the season, throwing only one interception from week 10 onward. Despite this, Pickett was not considered a solid option in fantasy football.
In 13 appearances last season, the Pittsburgh first-round pick threw for 2,404 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. With so few passing touchdowns, Pickett was only able to produce four top-15 fantasy quarterback weeks. To become a relevant and consistent fantasy starter, Pickett will need to have a substantial increase in these performances in 2023.
So far, it appears Pickett is on his way to achieving that. According to PFF, he finished the preseason as the highest-graded QB with a rating of 94.7. This included getting the ball into the endzone on every possession he had, as well as posting a perfect passer rating. The QB has also shown enhanced chemistry with promising second-year receiver George Pickens, as they have been dominant all throughout training camp and preseason.
This young offensive nucleus of Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Diontae Johnson seems ready to explode into the national spotlight. The team also added veteran receiver Allen Robinson from the Rams, which should further contribute to Pickett's development.
Given how Kenny Pickett has looked in a full offseason as QB1, it seems evident that he is primed to take a leap in his second year. His yardage and touchdown totals should experience a significant increase as long as he continues to become comfortable in the offense and develops trust with his receivers.
Fantasy Football Verdict
With these two players going at such different spots in the draft (according to current ADP), the decision to wait until the last few picks to draft Pickett as your QB1 vs. Prescott in the 7th or 8th round is intriguing. Both players are entering the season with offenses that should be better than the previous year.
So who do you draft? It's beneficial to select players with the potential to significantly outperform the position at which they are drafted. Given Dak's current ADP, he will need to have a tremendous season to provide the value that most people desire. Kenny Pickett is more likely to outperform his ADP, as he has shown the ability to make immense improvements from year 1 to year 2. If you are willing to bet on upside, he is the right choice.
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